Eels vs Sharks Prediction
This is the game where I disagree with the bookies…
Rabbitohs vs Dolphins Prediction – Round 11 2026
Rabbitohs vs Dolphins NRL Round 11 prediction and best bet: the model has it at one point and the Dolphins’ defence tips the call. Tips, odds inside.
NRL Round 11 • 2026
Model Predicted — Final Score
SOU
$2.00
Friday, May 15 • 8:05pm
25 : 26
Suncorp Stadium
DOL
$1.84
The Dolphins by 1 points
Model Predicted Margin
The Dolphins by 1
Current Market
South Sydney Rabbitohs +1.5
0.5 pts tighter
Best BetHEAD TO HEAD
Dolphins H2H @ $1.84
Model lean is paper-thin but the Dolphins have the best defence in the comp and the model still has them in front.
Claim This Tip at Ladbrokes - Offer ladbrokes
Odds correct at time of posting
The Closest Call of the Round. Defence Tips It.
Our model has this at one point. That isn’t analysis – that’s a coin flip with a slight lean. The Bunnies have been on fire, the Dolphins have been quietly building, and the books have it just as tight.
What tips the scales is defence. The Dolphins are the stingiest team in the comp right now, and they’ve followed back-to-back wins over the Storm and Bulldogs with a calmness that doesn’t show up on the ladder yet.
Souths come in with the bigger attacking name and the home jersey, but their last five include a loss to the Knights and a few wins that were already in the bag by half time. They’ve been either elite or absent – rarely in between.
The risk is the model is 51 percent. That’s almost as flat as it gets. If Latrell catches fire or the Phins forwards get rolled, this swings the other way fast.
But $1.84 on the side with the better defence in a one-point game is value, not certainty. Have a crack – just don’t dress it up as a lock.
Rabbitohs vs Dolphins Tip
Take the Dolphins straight up at $1.84; they’re conceding the fewest in the comp and that’s the edge in a one-point game.
Rabbitohs vs Dolphins Key Stats
POINTS PER GAME (LAST 5)
SOU37
DOL33
Both attacks are firing, but the Bunnies have the louder name.
POINTS CONCEDED (LAST 5)
SOU22
DOL17
Dolphins are the comp’s stingiest defence over the last month – the tiebreaker in a coin flip.
POINT DIFFERENTIAL (LAST 5)
SOU16
DOL16
Almost identical form lines. The market price and the model both have it within a kick.
Rabbitohs vs Dolphins Form Guide
South Sydney Rabbitohs
WLW
- R8: W 48-6 vs Storm
- R9: L 38-42 vs Knights
- R10: W 36-12 vs Sharks
The Dolphins
LWW
- R8: L 18-20 vs Warriors
- R9: W 28-10 vs Storm
- R10: W 44-12 vs Bulldogs
Final Verdict
Two solid sides in a near-deadlock. The Dolphins’ defence is the tie-breaker.
LOCK IT IN: Dolphins H2H @ $1.84
Key Facts
| Match | South Sydney Rabbitohs vs The Dolphins |
| Date | Friday, May 15 |
| Venue | Suncorp Stadium |
| Our Tip | Dolphins H2H @ $1.84 |
| Predicted Score | South Sydney Rabbitohs 25 – The Dolphins 26 |
South Sydney Rabbitohs vs The Dolphins FAQs
Who will win Rabbitohs vs Dolphins?
Our model tips the Dolphins to win by one point with 51 percent confidence. The Dolphins are conceding just 16.6 points a game over their last five, the best defence in the competition, while the Rabbitohs are averaging 37.2 a game in attack.
What is the best bet for Rabbitohs vs Dolphins in Round 11?
Dolphins head-to-head at $1.84 is our recommended bet. The match is rated a near-coin flip but the Dolphins have the stingier defence and are coming off back-to-back wins over the Storm and Bulldogs.
Where is the Rabbitohs vs Dolphins Round 11 match being played?
The match is at Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane as part of Magic Round, kicking off at 8:05pm on Friday 15 May 2026.
Verified result – Round 11
We tipped Dolphins to win – correct. Final score: Rabbitohs 10 – Dolphins 32.
| Market | Our bet | Result | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Dolphins H2H @ $1.84 | Win | +0.84u |
Predicted: Rabbitohs 25 – Dolphins 26. Off by 21 pts on the margin. Season-to-date accuracy and ROI: NRL results page - Nrl tips nrl results.
