New Zealand Warriors vs Newcastle Knights Predictions
Game 3 of Round 8 of the 2026 NRL Telstra Premiership on April 25 features the Warriors vs Knights at Apollo Projects Stadium in Christchurch on Fri night. Get the latest NRL betting tips predictions and analysis right here, and catch the game live on Kayo, & Foxtel.Â
At the time of writing Unibet had the head to head for New Zealand Warriors is set at $1.30, and $3.50 for the Newcastle Knights, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:
Warriors
72.96%
Knights
27.04%
Opportunity Bet
The bookies are all in on the Warriors, giving them a hefty 72.96% shot at the win. But our analysis paints a different picture, the Warriors still have the edge, but it’s not as big, sitting at 58.63%.
The big opportunity here? The Knights. The market reckons they’ve only got a 27.04% chance, but we rate them much higher at 41.37%. That’s a solid gap, and one that opens the door to some real value.
Based on our numbers, the true odds for the Knights should be around $2.42, but Unibet is dishing out $3.50. That’s a great price if our read on the game is on point.
While the Warriors deserve to be favourites, the Knights are being seriously underrated by the market. If our model holds up, backing Newcastle at $3.50 is a cracking value bet worth considering.
Power Rankings Breakdown
Here’s how both sides stack up in the numbers:
Overall Power Ranking: Warriors 12th vs Knights 17th
Score Rank (Home vs Away): Warriors 12th vs Knights 3rd
Balanced Power Score: Warriors 9th vs Knights 16th
Points For (Home): Warriors 9th vs Knights 17th
Points Against (Home): Warriors 2nd vs Knights 3rd
Win % Rank (Home): Warriors 1st vs Knights 9th
Total Power Rank Score: Warriors 7.50 vs Knights 10.83
What to do?
The Warriors are strong at home and rock solid, no question there. But the Knights have shown spark away from home, particularly in scoring, and aren’t as far off the pace as their odds suggest.
The Warriors should be favourites, but the market is way overestimating the gap. At $3.50, Newcastle offers a great bit of value, and based on our numbers, they’re a live underdog in this one.
The Line is set at -8.5 however our estimate suggests that the Warriors will be winning by around 10 points and the OVER/UNDER tempo is sitting two points higher than our expected total points, unfortunately this knocks out the Knights for a line betting option but does keep us well within the under of the 44.5 OVER/UNDER set by the bookies. At home we feel comfortable bumping a few extra points on the Warriors for a solid home ground advantage so we’re likely looking at a 13+ winning margin also.
Ben's been analysing footy betting markets for over a decade - breaking down team form, player stats, and where the bookies have got it wrong. He leads KRUZEY's weekly AFL and NRL tips and writes our betting app reviews, testing everything from multi-builders to odds competitiveness.
A lifelong Essendon supporter (yes, he's used to disappointment), Ben combines statistical analysis with genuine footy obsession. He watches more game tape than is probably healthy. Connect on LinkedInEmail Contact
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