Melbourne Storm vs South Sydney Rabbitohs Predictions
Game 4 of Round 8 of the 2026 NRL Telstra Premiership on April 25 features the Storm vs Rabbitohs at AAMI Park on Friday night. Get the latest NRL betting tips predictions and analysis right here, and catch the game live on Kayo, Foxtel, Nine, and Nine Now.Â
At the time of writing Unibet had the head to head for Melbourne Storm is set at $1.20, and $4.50 for the South Sydney Rabbitohs, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:
Storm
78.96%
Rabbitohs
21.04%
Opportunity Bet
The bookies are giving the Storm a massive nod, handing them a 78.96% chance of grabbing the win. But our numbers say they’re still strong favourites, just not by quite that much, we’ve got them at 64.82%.
That opens up some sneaky value on the Bunnies. The market reckons Souths have just a 21.04% shot, but we’ve got them closer to 35.18%. That’s a solid difference and one worth jumping on if you like an underdog flutter.
Based on our numbers, the Rabbitohs should be more like $2.84, but they’re sitting at $4.50 with Unibet. That’s a juicy price and a clear value play if our read holds up.
No doubt the Storm are tough to beat, especially at home, but the Rabbitohs are being written off a bit too much. Backing Souths at $4.50 offers great value if you’re backing our analysis.
Power Rankings Breakdown
Let’s check how the two sides stack up:
Overall Power Ranking: Storm 1st vs Rabbitohs 16th
Score Rank (Home vs Away): Storm 1st vs Rabbitohs 8th
Balanced Power Score: Storm 1st vs Rabbitohs 15th
Points For (Home): Storm 1st vs Rabbitohs 16th
Points Against (Home): Storm 6th vs Rabbitohs 13th
Win % Rank (Home): Storm 1st vs Rabbitohs 9th
Total Power Rank Score: Storm 1.83 vs Rabbitohs 12.83
What to do?
The Storm have been dominant across the board, especially at home. That said, even the best teams drop games occasionally, and our numbers show the Rabbitohs are a better shot than their odds suggest.
However…
Storm are highly unlikely to let two games in a row slip between their fingers, and away from home the Rabbitohs have one of the worst power ranks and Points for when playing away.
Though a little risky take the Storm at -14.5 for the most value, be weary of the OVER/UNDER here as its a little too close to our estimate for us to be comfortable placing a bet on it, Safest bet here is Storm 13+ winning margin at $1.75.
Ben's been analysing footy betting markets for over a decade - breaking down team form, player stats, and where the bookies have got it wrong. He leads KRUZEY's weekly AFL and NRL tips and writes our betting app reviews, testing everything from multi-builders to odds competitiveness.
A lifelong Essendon supporter (yes, he's used to disappointment), Ben combines statistical analysis with genuine footy obsession. He watches more game tape than is probably healthy. Connect on LinkedInEmail Contact
