Game 7 of Round 5 of the 2026 NRL Telstra Premiership on April 6 features the Sea Eagles vs Storm at 4 Pines Park on Sunday afternoon. Get the latest NRL betting tips predictions and analysis right here, and catch the game live on Kayo, Foxtel, Nine, & Nine Now.Â
At the time of writing bet365 had the head to head for Manly Sea Eagles is set at $2.45, and $1.56 for the Melbourne Storm, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:
Sea Eagles
38.92%
Storm
61.08%
Opportunity Bet
The bookies have gone in strong on the Storm, giving them a 61.08% shot at winning, while Manly sit at just 38.92%. But our analysis tells a different story, we actually rate the Sea Eagles as slight favourites at 55%.
With Manly priced at $2.45, but our numbers suggesting their true odds should be closer to $1.82, there’s a strong edge here. The market’s clearly undervaluing them based on our metrics.
In summary: Backing the Sea Eagles at $2.45 looks like a solid value play. If our read is right, there’s a serious opportunity to cash in on the market’s misjudgment, Manly are a great underdog shout in this one.
What to do?
The boys from the south will be hunting for a win this week as they take on the Sea Eagles in one of the (Statistically) closest games we have ever encountered, the Storm have played one game less than the Sea Eagles this season sitting the second week due to a bye, however, they have also not won a single game at 4 Pines Park since 2020 which will be playing a mental game on them this week.
The line this week is a little too close for my liking, as the score historically fluctuate so much, which also rules out the winning margin, best bet is Sea Eagles on the nose.
Ben's been analysing footy betting markets for over a decade - breaking down team form, player stats, and where the bookies have got it wrong. He leads KRUZEY's weekly AFL and NRL tips and writes our betting app reviews, testing everything from multi-builders to odds competitiveness.
A lifelong Essendon supporter (yes, he's used to disappointment), Ben combines statistical analysis with genuine footy obsession. He watches more game tape than is probably healthy. Connect on LinkedInEmail Contact
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