Game 3 of Round 6 of the 2026 NRL Telstra Premiership on April 11 features the Broncos vs Roosters at Suncorp Stadium on Friday night. Get the latest NRL betting tips predictions and analysis right here, and catch the game live on Kayo, Foxtel, Nine, and Nine Now.Â
At the time of writing bet365 had the head to head for Brisbane Broncos is set at $1.30, and $3.50 for the Sydney Roosters, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:
Broncos
72.96%
Roosters
27.04%
Opportunity Bet
The bookies have the Broncos at $1.30, which suggests they win this almost 73% of the time, but our model has them at a lower 58%. That’s still a strong favourite, but nowhere near what the market’s implying, meaning there’s not much value backing Brisbane at that price.
Now here’s where it gets spicy, the Roosters are paying $3.50, and while the market reckons they’ve only got a 27.04% chance, our numbers bump that up to 42%. That’s a pretty juicy gap and a sign there’s real value backing the Chooks here if you’re looking to go against the grain.
In Summary
Even though we’re tipping the Broncos to get the win, the value lies with the Roosters. Our analysis gives them a much better shot than the odds suggest, making that $3.50 a tempting roughie. If you’re on the hunt for a high-upside play, the Roosters are well worth a look.
What to do?
These two played each other just over a month ago resulting in a 36 point win in favour of the Broncos, we can’t see this week’s game going much different, and while the Broncos are well deserved favourites, their odds are nothing to grin about, The Broncos line at -14.5 for $2.00 is possibly the best way forwards, Typically the Broncos winning by 13+ would be a better bet but that is only paying a mere $1.75 (pittance for a 13+ winning margin).
Ben's been analysing footy betting markets for over a decade - breaking down team form, player stats, and where the bookies have got it wrong. He leads KRUZEY's weekly AFL and NRL tips and writes our betting app reviews, testing everything from multi-builders to odds competitiveness.
A lifelong Essendon supporter (yes, he's used to disappointment), Ben combines statistical analysis with genuine footy obsession. He watches more game tape than is probably healthy. Connect on LinkedInEmail Contact
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