Roosters vs Knights Grand Final Betting Tips & Prediction
The Knights have earned this, and I still cannot get…
NRL 2026 Ladder Prediction
Right. Season’s nearly here, the pre-season trials are giving us something to chew on, and I’ve spent the last few weeks crunching every roster move, injury update, and draw quirk I can find against our Elo ratings.
I’ve got the Melbourne Storm running away with it. Not Brisbane. Not Penrith. The Storm. I’m going to walk you through the full predicted ladder and flag the calls where I’m genuinely nervous I’ve got it wrong.
Let’s get into it.
The Full 2026 NRL Predicted Ladder
| Pos | Team | W | L | Pts | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Melbourne Storm | 18 | 6 | 36 | +220 |
| 2 | Cronulla Sharks | 15 | 9 | 30 | +120 |
| 3 | Penrith Panthers | 15 | 9 | 30 | +108 |
| 4 | Sydney Roosters | 15 | 9 | 30 | +102 |
| 5 | Brisbane Broncos | 15 | 9 | 30 | +88 |
| 6 | Canberra Raiders | 13 | 11 | 26 | +64 |
| 7 | Canterbury Bulldogs | 13 | 11 | 26 | +48 |
| 8 | Manly Sea Eagles | 13 | 11 | 26 | +34 |
| 9 | Dolphins | 12 | 12 | 24 | +16 |
| 10 | NZ Warriors | 12 | 12 | 24 | -6 |
| 11 | Parramatta Eels | 10 | 14 | 20 | -66 |
| 12 | NQ Cowboys | 10 | 14 | 20 | -78 |
| 13 | South Sydney Rabbitohs | 10 | 14 | 20 | -92 |
| 14 | Wests Tigers | 9 | 15 | 18 | -112 |
| 15 | St George Illawarra | 9 | 15 | 18 | -128 |
| 16 | Newcastle Knights | 8 | 16 | 16 | -148 |
| 17 | Gold Coast Titans | 7 | 17 | 14 | -170 |
Tier 1: The Clear Favourite – Melbourne Storm
This is my single strongest call. The market is underrating the Bellamy machine because of the Papenhuyzen headline. But Craig Bellamy doesn’t rebuild; he reloads.
With a spine featuring Harry Grant, Jahrome Hughes, and Cameron Munster, they are in a tier of their own. A projected +220 points differential tells you everything about how dominant they should be.
The Top 4 Logjam: PD is Everything
Look at the logjam from 2nd to 5th. Four teams on 30 points.
- Cronulla Sharks (2nd): Fonua-Blake’s impact should translate to bigger winning margins (+120 PD).
- Penrith Panthers (3rd): The dynasty isn’t dead, but they have the hardest draw in the competition, which knocks roughly 1.5 wins off their projection.
- Sydney Roosters (4th): The DCE move is straight out of the Cooper Cronk playbook. Plus, they have byes during the Origin rounds–a massive structural advantage.
The Contrarian Call: Brisbane Broncos (5th)
The defending premiers are everyone’s pick for back-to-back, but I see a premiership hangover brewing.
Between the World Club Challenge travel to England, Adam Reynolds entering his final season, and Payne Haas confirmed to leave for Souths in 2027, there’s a psychological drag here. They’ll still be excellent, but I expect more close grinds than blowouts (+88 PD).
The Heartbreak: Dolphins (9th)
The Dolphins leading the comp in points scored last year and still missing the finals was a first in NRL history. I’ve got them at 9th again–agonisingly close.
While the returns of Thomas Flegler and Tom Gilbert address their defensive fragility, Manly’s acquisition of Jamal Fogarty gives the Sea Eagles a structural edge at halfback that’s hard to ignore.
The Rebuild & The Spoon
South Sydney (13th): The numbers say slow down on the Wayne Bennett hype. The roster is a “rusted chassis” underneath the headline signings, and Payne Haas doesn’t actually arrive until 2027.
Gold Coast Titans (17th): Collecting the wooden spoon. Losing Fifita, Campbell-Gillard, and Foran isn’t just an off-season; it’s an evacuation.
acquisition of Jamal Fogarty gives the Sea Eagles a structural edge at halfback that’s hard to ignore.
The Bottom Line
Melbourne is the team to beat. The battle for the top four will be decided by points differential, and the race for 8th will go down to the final round.
That’s footy. Let’s see how it plays out.
