Knights vs Sea Eagles Prediction

NRL Round 25 • 2026

Model Predicted Final Score

NEW

$1.43

Saturday, August 22 • 3:00pm AEST

19 : 16

McDonald Jones Stadium

MAN

$2.82

Knights by 3 points

Model Predicted Margin

Knights by 3

Current Market

Knights -7.5

4.5 pts tighter

Our Bets This Game

H2HKnights to win

$1.43

LINEEagles +7.5

$1.97

TOTALUnder 50.5 points

$1.90

MULTIEagles +7.5, Under 50.5 points & Tolutau Koula Anytime Try

$10.29

Claim Tips at bet365 - Offer bet365

Odds correct at time of posting

The Knights Have Won Three Straight And Are Chasing The Top Four. Manly Have To Win Their Last Three To Play Finals, Which Makes 7.5 Too Many To Give Them.

I have the Knights by three and the market wants seven and a half. That gap is the whole bet. Tom Trbojevic is named at fullback on Saturday, and he is the difference between Manly starting sets with some air under them and Manly spending the afternoon defending off their own line. Kick returns, the carry out of trouble, an out on the last tackle. None of that wins them the game. All of it changes the margin, and the margin is what I am betting.

Two tries is too many

Newcastle’s three in a row came by twenty four, six and ten, so they are winning without blowing sides off the park. Only one of those three finished inside 7.5, and this is a harder assignment than the last two were.

Those three floggings were the three he missed

The six game losing run looks damning until you check when it turned ugly. Tom Trbojevic missed the last three, and those are the three beatings, 36, 22 and 22. He is named at fullback for Saturday, so the side that copped those is not the side running out here.

The case against: Kalyn Ponga and a top four spot

Newcastle are chasing a top four spot and Kalyn Ponga is playing near the form that won him a Dally M Medal. That is a real reason to expect them up for it and I am not pretending otherwise. What answers it is the matchup in the middle: Manly’s pack has been winning the collision even through the losing run, and a pack still going forward late is how a beaten side stays inside two tries.

The total is the leg I like least

I will be straight about this one. The scorelines in both these form guides have not been low, and if either side gets away early the total is gone. What I am backing is the shape of the game, because a three point contest with a finals spot riding on it is an arm wrestle, and arm wrestles stay under 50.5.

Knights vs Eagles Tip

Knights by 3 at McDonald Jones, in the sort of arm wrestle Manly drag them into.

Knights vs Eagles Key Stats

Knights vs Eagles Form Guide

Player Prop Predictions

Kalyn Ponga to score a try, $2.18. Kalyn Ponga has crossed in three of his last six, and an arm wrestle at McDonald Jones is exactly the sort of game Newcastle hand him the ball and ask him to find something. At $2.18 I want him in it.

Bradman Best to score a try, $2.30. Bradman Best is one on, one off at the moment, with a try in two of his last four. Manly grinding this into a tight one suits a bloke who scores off short yardage rather than open space, and $2.30 pays for the pattern.

Dominic Young to score a try, $1.63. Dominic Young has a try in four of his last seven, including a double along the way, and Newcastle keep finding his edge. Blank last start does not change how often he gets there.

Greg Marzhew to score two or more tries, $2.85. Greg Marzhew bagged two last start, and that is his third double in seven games. He does it in bunches rather than dribs and drabs, so $2.85 about two or more is the way you back him.

Tolutau Koula to score a try, $2.75. Tolutau Koula has scored in four of his last six, three of them back to back, which is the sort of steady return I want anchoring a multi. Manly dragging Newcastle into a slog still gives him his chances out wide.

These prop odds are Sportsbet’s, correct at time of posting. Prices move, so check before you bet and take the best one going. Late team changes can knock out any leg.

Up Next in the NRL

Today 6:00pm AEST Sea Eagles vs Dragons Prediction Today 8:00pm AEST Panthers vs Bulldogs Prediction Tomorrow 3:00pm AEST Titans vs Rabbitohs Prediction Tomorrow 5:30pm AEST Roosters vs Dolphins Prediction Tomorrow 7:35pm AEST Cowboys vs Tigers Prediction Sun 30 Aug, 2:00pm AEST Warriors vs Knights Prediction