Eels vs Sharks Prediction
This is the game where I disagree with the bookies…
Dragons vs Dolphins Prediction
The Dolphins are the better side and they win this. But there is a gap between winning and winning by 14.5, and getting the Dragons and the points at home is where I want to be.
NRL Round 22 • 2026
Model Predicted Final Score
STI
$4.75
Friday, July 31 • 6:00pm AEST
19 : 27
WIN Stadium
DOL
$1.19
Dolphins by 8 points
Model Predicted Margin
Dolphins by 8
Current Market
Dolphins -14.5
6.5 pts tighter
Our Bets This Game
H2HDolphins to win
$1.19
LINEDragons +14.5
$1.85
TOTALUnder 49.5 points
$1.92
MULTIDragons +14.5, Under 49.5 points & Jamayne Isaako Anytime Try
$6.00
Claim Tips at bet365 - Offer bet365
Odds correct at time of posting
The Dolphins Are A Class Above And They Should Win. The Real Question Is Whether The Dragons Are Worth Nearly Three Tries At Home.
Lists are out and there are no late outs that change the read. So this one is not really about who wins. It is about how many, and whether the market has stretched the Dolphins a bridge too far.
The Dolphins win, the margin is the bet
The Dolphins sit fifth and the Dragons sit 17th, so the head to head is not the argument here. The number is. I make this about an eight point Dolphins night, and that leaves a full converted try of daylight between my margin and the 14.5 line.
The Dolphins run hot and cold
This is the reason the points are live. A month ago the Dolphins were beaten 66 to nil by the Sharks, and they lost a tight one to the Knights before that. A side that can turn up flat is not a side you lay 14.5 with, especially away from home on a Friday night.
The Dragons are live at home
A home crowd and familiar surrounds count for a young side playing for pride, and a motivated home underdog getting nearly three tries is exactly the kind of line that looks too big by kickoff.
Why the points stay down
The Dragons rarely trouble the scoreboard, and a side that struggles to score is a handbrake on any total. Even if the Dolphins post their share, one team dragging its feet keeps this under 49.5. That is the second play.
Dragons vs Dolphins Tip
The Dolphins have too much for a 17th placed side and take it, but not by the 14.5 the bookies want, so I am on the Dragons to cover at home and the points to stay under.
Dragons vs Dolphins Key Stats
LINE BREAKS
STI3
DOL6
Across this season the Dolphins carve out nearly twice as many line breaks as the Dragons, and that is how they crack a defence open and turn field position into points.
POINTS FOR
STI15
DOL27
The Dragons barely trouble the scoreboard, so even a busy Dolphins night struggles to drag this total past 49.5 on its own.
POINTS AGAINST
STI30
DOL22
St George have leaked points by the bucketload this season, so the one way the Dragons lose the line is by folding, not by being outworked.
Dragons vs Dolphins Form Guide
St George Illawarra Dragons
LLWLL
- R16: L 20-22 vs Knights
- R17: L 16-24 vs Raiders
- R18: W 24-10 vs Wests Tigers
- R20: L 12-20 vs Warriors
- R21: L 18-38 vs Titans
The Dolphins
WWLLW
- R16: W 36-22 vs Wests Tigers
- R17: W 26-24 vs Warriors
- R18: L 12-13 vs Knights
- R19: L 0-66 vs Sharks
- R20: W 36-16 vs Cowboys
Ben’s Verdict
Give me the Dragons and the points. I am happy to take the Dolphins on the head to head, but a team that lost by 66 last month is not one I lay nearly three tries with, and the total should stay south of fifty. If the Dolphins click into gear early it can get away, but at these prices the value sits with the home underdog and the under.
Our Bets
H2H Dolphins to win$1.19
LINE Dragons +14.5$1.85
TOTAL Under 49.5 points$1.92
MULTI Dragons +14.5, Under 49.5 points & Jamayne Isaako Anytime Try$6.00
Player Prop Predictions
Connelly Lemuelu to score a try, $3.30. Crossed last start after a quiet run of three blanks, and with the Dolphins having too much class here the tries should come. At $3.30 he only needs to find the line once.
Tyrell Sloan to score a try, $2.25. Five tries in his last six and over the line again last start. I have got the Dragons covering at home, so he is in a side that is in the contest, and $2.25 on a bloke scoring that often is the play.
Jamayne Isaako to score a try, $1.69. Bagged a double last start and has hit in five of his last seven. He is the Dolphins man who keeps finding the line, and in a game they win comfortably $1.69 is fair enough.
The Props I Like
PROP Connelly Lemuelu Anytime Try$3.30
PROP Tyrell Sloan Anytime Try$2.25
PROP Jamayne Isaako Anytime Try$1.69
These prop odds are Sportsbet’s, correct at time of posting. Prices move, so check before you bet and take the best one going. Late team changes can knock out any leg.
Up Next in the NRL
Key Facts
| Match | St George Illawarra Dragons vs The Dolphins |
| Date | Friday, July 31 |
| Kick-off | 6:00pm AEST |
| Venue | WIN Stadium |
| Round | NRL Round 22 |
| Status | Scheduled |
| Our Tip | Multi: Dragons +14.5, Under 49.5 points & Jamayne Isaako Anytime Try @ $6.00 |
| Predicted Score | St George Illawarra Dragons 19 – The Dolphins 27 |
St George Illawarra Dragons vs The Dolphins FAQs
Who will win Dragons vs Dolphins?
The Dolphins. They sit fifth, the Dragons sit 17th, and they break the line far more often. I have them winning by about eight points, which is why the head to head is on the card while the Dragons still hold the value on the line.
What is the best bet in Dragons vs Dolphins?
My headline multi at $6.00 leaves the straight win out and rolls the line and total in with a player prop, Jamayne Isaako Anytime Try. On its own, Dragons +14.5 at $1.85 is the anchor.
Is there value in the Dragons vs Dolphins betting?
Yes, on the line. The Dolphins are rightly favoured, but the market has stretched the margin against a streaky visitor, and a motivated home underdog getting 14.5 is worth taking. Pair it with the under and the multi pays $6.00.
Who do the St George Illawarra Dragons play next week?
The Dragons host the Sharks on Sunday 9 August in NRL Round 23.
Who do the Dolphins play next week?
The Dolphins host the Broncos at Suncorp Stadium on Saturday 8 August in NRL Round 23.
