Eels vs Sharks Prediction
This is the game where I disagree with the bookies…
Dolphins vs Broncos Prediction
The Broncos have had the better of the Battle for Brisbane since the Dolphins turned up, and they arrive at Suncorp fifteenth with their season already finished. Now they are doing it without their halfback, and that is where the value sits.
NRL Round 23 • 2026
Model Predicted Final Score
DOL
$1.42
Saturday, August 8 • 5:30pm AEST
27 : 18
Suncorp Stadium
BRI
$2.89
Dolphins by 9 points
Model Predicted Margin
Dolphins by 9
Current Market
Dolphins -7.5
1.5 pts edge
Our Bets This Game
H2HDolphins to win
$1.42
LINEDolphins -7.5
$1.89
TOTALUnder 48.5 points
$1.89
MULTIDolphins Win, Under 48.5 points & Jamayne Isaako Anytime Try
$4.94
Claim Tips at bet365 - Offer bet365
Odds correct at time of posting
The Dolphins Have Beaten Brisbane Once In Their History. This Is The Week That Changes.
Adam Reynolds is out with concussion and Thomas Duffy wears the 7.
That is who steers Brisbane through the last 20 at Suncorp, in his eighth game of the season, for a side that has not been able to put a score together all year. I am betting on that, not on the ladder.
The Battle for Brisbane has been one way, and I am fading it
The Broncos have taken five of the last six against the Dolphins, including 26-12 earlier this season, and the Dolphins have beaten them once in their history. If you back the record you back Brisbane. But every one of those results came before last weekend, and before this week’s team sheet.
The 7 jerseys are going in opposite directions
Thomas Duffy has the Brisbane jersey. The Dolphins go the other way, with Isaiya Katoa back from a wrist injury and steering them past the Dragons last start. Same position, opposite directions, and that is the sort of difference that turns up in a margin rather than a result. It is who gets the ball in the tight part of the game and decides what happens next.
The Dolphins have plenty to play for
The Dolphins sit fifth and are chasing a top four spot, hunting their first finals appearance. Brisbane’s last start was a 24 point loss to the Knights. I know which of those two I would rather have chasing a game late at Suncorp.
Where this falls over
The Dolphins are capable of a genuine shocker and the form guide on this page carries a 66-0 loss to prove it. That is the real risk on a line this size. On the total, 45 is my number against 48.5 and I am comfortable there. The Dolphins can put a proper score on and this still stays under, because Brisbane’s half of the scoreboard is the part I cannot see moving.
Dolphins vs Broncos Tip
I have the Dolphins by nine at Suncorp against a 7.5 line, so a converted try either way decides it, and 45 points is my number in a game the market has priced for more.
Dolphins vs Broncos Key Stats
POINTS FOR
DOL27
BRI18
This gap is the whole tip. Brisbane’s problem is not effort, it is that they cannot build a score, and a side that cannot build a score does not chase down a deficit at Suncorp.
LINE BREAKS
DOL6
BRI4
This is how a favourite covers a line this big instead of grinding out a narrow one. The Dolphins do not have to camp on the line to score, and one clean break late is the difference between a win and a cover.
POINTS AGAINST
DOL22
BRI26
The under is not built on tight defence. It is built on Brisbane needing to keep scoring with them to push this total up, and I do not think they can.
Dolphins vs Broncos Form Guide
The Dolphins
WLLWW
- R17: W 26-24 vs Warriors
- R18: L 12-13 vs Knights
- R19: L 0-66 vs Sharks
- R20: W 36-16 vs Cowboys
- R22: W 28-22 vs Dragons
Brisbane Broncos
LLWLL
- R17: L 18-24 vs Roosters
- R18: L 16-28 vs Sharks
- R20: W 14-12 vs Panthers
- R21: L 10-18 vs Cowboys
- R22: L 6-30 vs Knights
Ben’s Verdict
Back the Dolphins to cover. Brisbane have owned this fixture for three years, but they turn up without Adam Reynolds and off a 24 point loss. The risk is the line rather than the result: nine against 7.5 means one late try decides whether this pays.
Our Bets
H2H Dolphins to win$1.42
LINE Dolphins -7.5$1.89
TOTAL Under 48.5 points$1.89
MULTI Dolphins Win, Under 48.5 points & Jamayne Isaako Anytime Try$4.94
Player Prop Predictions
Jamayne Isaako to score a try, $1.84. A try in four of his last seven and two of those were doubles, so he is never far from the line, and with the Dolphins the better side by nine at Suncorp he gets the game on his terms at $1.84.
Connelly Lemuelu to score a try, $4.00. He’s crossed for a try in three of his last seven.
The Props I Like
PROP Jamayne Isaako Anytime Try$1.84
PROP Connelly Lemuelu Anytime Try$4.00
Player Props MultiJamayne Isaako Anytime Try & Connelly Lemuelu Anytime Try, my price $7.36
These prop odds are Sportsbet’s, correct at time of posting. Prices move, so check before you bet and take the best one going. Late team changes can knock out any leg.
Up Next in the NRL
Key Facts
| Match | The Dolphins vs Brisbane Broncos |
| Date | Saturday, August 8 |
| Kick-off | 5:30pm AEST |
| Venue | Suncorp Stadium |
| Round | NRL Round 23 |
| Status | Scheduled |
| Our Tip | Multi: Dolphins Win, Under 48.5 points & Jamayne Isaako Anytime Try @ $4.94 |
| Predicted Score | The Dolphins 27 – Brisbane Broncos 18 |
The Dolphins vs Brisbane Broncos FAQs
Who will win Dolphins vs Broncos?
I am tipping the Dolphins. I make them nine points better at Suncorp, and with Brisbane’s halfback out I do not think they have the attack to stay with them for 80 minutes.
What is the best bet in Dolphins vs Broncos?
My headline multi at $4.94 takes the straight win with the total and a player prop, Jamayne Isaako Anytime Try. The win leg anchors it this week; the line bet on the card still stands as its own play.
Will Dolphins vs Broncos be a high scoring game?
No. I have it at 45 against 48.5. The Dolphins can score enough to cover and this still stays under, because Brisbane have the weaker attack by a distance and that is the half of the scoreboard that has to move for the total to get there.
Who is Dolphins playing next week?
The Dolphins play the Sea Eagles - at 4 Pines Park on Friday 14 August in NRL Round 24.
Who is Brisbane Broncos playing next week?
The Broncos play the Warriors - at Suncorp Stadium on Saturday 15 August in NRL Round 24.
