Broncos vs Storm Prediction

NRL Round 26 • 2026

Model Predicted Final Score

BRI

$2.18

Thursday, August 27 • 7:50pm AEST

19 : 26

Suncorp Stadium

MEL

$1.69

Storm by 7 points

Model Predicted Margin

Storm by 7

Current Market

Storm -3.5

3.5 pts edge

Our Bets This Game

H2HStorm to win

$1.69

LINEStorm -3.5

$1.90

TOTALUnder 49.5 points

$1.90

MULTIStorm Win, Under 49.5 points & Sualauvi Faalogo Anytime Try

$6.04

Claim Tips at bet365 - Offer bet365

Odds correct at time of posting

The Storm Get Their Halfback Back For A Game Neither Side Needs. That Is Where The Broncos Get Caught.

Two sides playing out a season usually serves up a loose, forgettable eighty minutes. That is exactly the sort of night I want to be holding the better organised team.

Jahrome Hughes changes what Melbourne can do with the ball

Jahrome Hughes has been named at halfback for his first game since Round 21 after a hamstring problem, and Tyran Wishart moves to the centres in place of Jack Howarth. Melbourne have spent a month asking people to fill in at seven and lost two of the three. Get the right man steering it and a side that already keeps the football alive far better than Brisbane do becomes a different proposition.

Brisbane’s scoreboard leak is the whole handicap

Melbourne only have to win this by four for the line to land, and the Storm at minus 3.5 is $1.90. Against a Brisbane side that has been beaten by 24 and by 34 inside the last month, four is not a big ask. I make the real margin seven, which leaves me three and a half points of room on a number the bookies are almost asking me to take.

Why the under still stands up

Brisbane were held to six points twice in their last five and to ten in another. That is the ceiling the under 49.5 rides on at $1.90: when their attack goes quiet the game stays low. I will be straight with you, Melbourne have gone past 49.5 in three of their last five, so this is not a free one. It stands up because Brisbane are the side who have to find the points, and finding points is what they have been worst at.

The case against, and Brisbane won the last one

The last time these two met Brisbane won it 18 to 14, and they did it in Melbourne. They also come in off a comeback win in Canberra with Ben Hunt running the show, and it is their last home game of the season in front of their own crowd. Two things answer it. Melbourne have won 34 of the 45 meetings on file, and that win came in a game where nobody got away, which is exactly the sort of night I am pricing here.

Broncos vs Storm Tip

I’m tipping the Storm by seven, 26 to 19, because Melbourne have their halfback back and Brisbane leak too many points to stay with them.

Broncos vs Storm Key Stats

Broncos vs Storm Form Guide

Player Prop Predictions

Hayze Perham to score a try, $3.10. Hayze Perham crossed last start, which makes it a try in two of his last four. Brisbane will still get their moments in a beaten side and $3.10 is a fair whack for a bloke already finding the line.

Ezra Mam to score a try, $2.70. Ezra Mam got over again last start and there’s a three try game sitting inside that same six game run, so the ceiling is real. Melbourne go in favoured but Brisbane won’t be kept scoreless, and $2.70 is decent for that.

Sualauvi Faalogo to score a try, $1.88. Sualauvi Faalogo has a try in three of his last six and I’ve got Melbourne winning this 26 to 19 with their halfback back in the side. Brisbane leak too many points for $1.88 to worry me, so he anchors the multi.

Tyran Wishart to score a try, $2.95. Tyran Wishart has crossed in each of his last two and three of his last six all up. If Melbourne put 26 on the board he’ll be near it somewhere, and $2.95 for a bloke in that nick is generous.

Siulagi Tuimalatu-Brown to score a try, $2.15. Siulagi Tuimalatu-Brown scored last start and has a try in three of his last six. The reason I’m tipping Melbourne by seven is Brisbane’s defence, and at $2.15 he only needs one of those chances to stick.

These prop odds are Sportsbet’s, correct at time of posting. Prices move, so check before you bet and take the best one going. Late team changes can knock out any leg.

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