Eels vs Sharks Prediction
This is the game where I disagree with the bookies…
Broncos vs Knights Prediction
Everyone can see the Broncos are home and the Knights have dropped three on the trot, and I reckon that is exactly why the price is wrong. Newcastle carry the better attack and Brisbane cannot plug the leaks at the other end, so I want the road team.
NRL Round 22 • 2026
Model Predicted Final Score
BRI
$1.51
Saturday, August 1 • 7:35pm AEST
23 : 24
Suncorp Stadium
NEW
$2.55
Knights by 1 point
Model Predicted Margin
Knights by 1
Current Market
Broncos -5.5
6.5 pts to Knights
Our Bets This Game
H2HKnights to win
$2.55
LINEKnights +5.5
$1.97
TOTALOver 46.5 points
$1.98
MULTIKnights +5.5, Over 46.5 points & Bradman Best Anytime Try
$10.14
Claim Tips at bet365 - Offer bet365
Odds correct at time of posting
Brisbane Have Not Defended Suncorp The Way The Ladder Says They Should. The Knights Roll In Scoring For Fun And Priced Like No-Hopers.
This is a coin flip and the market has it the wrong way around. Brisbane are home, but home has meant very little to a side sitting 14th.
Newcastle score, Brisbane bleed
The quickest way to read this game is at both ends of a try. The Knights are the sharper attacking side and the Broncos have not been able to keep anyone out, and that gap is why I have the underdog winning and why the points should pile up. Two soft defences and one genuine strike side is my kind of over.
Ponga and Gagai change the spine
The Knights get skipper Kalyn Ponga back from injury, and veteran Dane Gagai returns in the centres. That is a spine reshaped and steadied after last week fell apart. A fit skipper is worth points on his own in a game this close.
The honest worry: Suncorp and the history
I am not pretending this is easy. Suncorp is a real home ground edge, and the Knights arrive out of form after losing two key men to season-ending injuries only last week. What is different this time is that the returning spine restocks the middle, and a home crowd has not been enough to save a side languishing in 14th.
Where the points come from
Even with the injuries there is enough strike on this field to blow past 46. Reece Walsh and the Broncos will post at home no matter how the season is going, Newcastle answer through their spine, and neither side is shutting the door. A bit of light rain about is not turning this into an arm wrestle.
Broncos vs Knights Tip
I have got the Knights to win this at Suncorp. The road team is the better side here and the market has the price upside down.
Broncos vs Knights Key Stats
POINTS FOR
BRI19
NEW25
The attack is the one part of Newcastle’s game that has not deserted them through this slide, and it is what keeps the road team live.
POINTS AGAINST
BRI26
NEW23
Brisbane keep letting sides in, and a defence this soft is what a bet over 46.5 leans on.
OFFLOADS
BRI5
NEW10
Second phase footy is how the Knights get at a Broncos side late, the kind of ball that a tiring defence hates in a tight one.
Broncos vs Knights Form Guide
Brisbane Broncos
LLLWL
- R15: L 6-48 vs Rabbitohs
- R17: L 18-24 vs Roosters
- R18: L 16-28 vs Sharks
- R20: W 14-12 vs Panthers
- R21: L 10-18 vs Cowboys
Newcastle Knights
WWLLL
- R17: W 12-6 vs Wests Tigers
- R18: W 13-12 vs Dolphins
- R19: L 24-26 vs Rabbitohs
- R20: L 18-20 vs Sharks
- R21: L 22-23 vs Roosters
Ben’s Verdict
Back the Knights to win it outright at $2.55. Their attack and a fit skipper get them there, and the one thing that beats me is Suncorp lifting a home crowd that has had little to cheer this year. At this price I will wear that risk.
Our Bets
H2H Knights to win$2.55
LINE Knights +5.5$1.97
TOTAL Over 46.5 points$1.98
MULTI Knights +5.5, Over 46.5 points & Bradman Best Anytime Try$10.14
Player Prop Predictions
Kalyn Ponga to score a try, $2.85. Crossed last start and bagged a double the game before, so the form’s rolling. I’ve got the Knights as the better side and winning this at Suncorp, which makes $2.85 overs for a bloke who scores tries.
Bradman Best to score a try, $2.60. Over the line in two of his last four and got there last start. I’ve got the Knights winning at Suncorp with Best in the thick of it, so $2.60 is the steady leg my multi is built on.
Josiah Karapani to score a try, $1.93. $1.93 is favourite’s money for a winger who’s crossed in two of his last five and came up empty last start. He’s a Bronco as well, and I’ve got Newcastle taking this one.
Kotoni Staggs to score a try, $2.12. He’s crossed for a try in two of his last five.
The Props I Like
PROP Kalyn Ponga Anytime Try$2.85
PROP Bradman Best Anytime Try$2.60
PROP Josiah Karapani Anytime Try$1.93
PROP Kotoni Staggs Anytime Try$2.12
Player Props MultiBradman Best Anytime Try, Kalyn Ponga Anytime Try & Josiah Karapani Anytime Try, my price $14.30
These prop odds are Sportsbet’s, correct at time of posting. Prices move, so check before you bet and take the best one going. Late team changes can knock out any leg.
Up Next in the NRL
Key Facts
| Match | Brisbane Broncos vs Newcastle Knights |
| Date | Saturday, August 1 |
| Kick-off | 7:35pm AEST |
| Venue | Suncorp Stadium |
| Round | NRL Round 22 |
| Status | Scheduled |
| Our Tip | Multi: Knights +5.5, Over 46.5 points & Bradman Best Anytime Try @ $10.14 |
| Predicted Score | Brisbane Broncos 23 – Newcastle Knights 24 |
Brisbane Broncos vs Newcastle Knights FAQs
Who will win Broncos vs Knights?
I am tipping the Knights to win outright at $2.55. Brisbane are favourites at home, but Newcastle carry the better attack and get Kalyn Ponga back to steer them.
What is the best bet in Broncos vs Knights?
My headline multi at $10.14 rolls the line and total in with a player prop, Bradman Best Anytime Try. On its own, Knights +5.5 at $1.97 is the anchor.
Where is Broncos vs Knights being played?
The game is at Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane. It is a real edge for the home side and the biggest plank holding up the Broncos’ favouritism, but a side sitting 14th has given its crowd little to lift for, so I am happy to take the visitors here.
Who do the Brisbane Broncos play next week?
The Broncos face the Dolphins at Suncorp Stadium on Saturday 8 August in NRL Round 23, with the Dolphins the home side.
Who do the Newcastle Knights play next week?
The Knights travel to face the Raiders at GIO Stadium on Sunday 9 August in NRL Round 23.
