Cardinals vs Lions Prediction
The Lions have not covered a line all season and…
Dolphins vs Chiefs Prediction
The market wants 10.5 points between two sides that both missed the playoffs last season. I have the Chiefs winning by four, 26 to 22, which leaves the Dolphins and the points as the bet on this game.
NFL Week 3 • 2026
Model Predicted Final Score
MIA
$6.00
Monday, September 28 • 3:00am AEST
22 : 26
Hard Rock Stadium
KC
$1.13
Chiefs by 4 points
Model Predicted Margin
Chiefs by 4
Current Market
Chiefs -10.5
6.5 pts tighter
Our Bets This Game
H2HChiefs
$1.13
LINEDolphins +10.5
$1.89
TOTALOver 45.5
$1.95
MULTIDolphins +10.5, Over 45.5 & De’Von Achane 60+ Rushing Yards
$6.74
Claim Tips at Dabble - Offer dabble
Odds correct at time of posting
The market has the Chiefs 10.5 better than the Dolphins and I have the margin at four. Neither of these two played in the postseason, which makes that a very confident number.
What the model cannot see
Six and a half points between my number and the line usually means the market can see something about availability that my numbers cannot. This time the official report does not show it. The Chiefs are missing a tackle and have a safety doubtful, and Patrick Mahomes was a full participant in practice, so that number is about reputation rather than personnel.
Neither of these two made the playoffs last season and the market has still found 10.5 points between them. That is a lot to be giving for a side that finished the year at home. I have the gap at four.
I make it Chiefs 26 to 22, a four point win for the away side, against a line that has come in to 10.5 this week. Six and a half points of difference clears my early season bar more than twice over. The Dolphins and the points at $1.89 is the bet.
Neither side turned the ball over last week, which is about all they had in common. The Chiefs won 33 to 30 at home and did not cover 6, the Dolphins were beaten 35 to 13 and did not cover 12.5. The market has taken the second of those at face value and then added to it.
The total does not interest me at 48 against 45.5, two and a half points apart. The official report is in and the Dolphins lose a defensive end and a receiver, with a running back doubtful and two more carrying knocks, which is a normal Week 3 list rather than a crisis. What beats this is the Chiefs scoring early and the Dolphins having to throw it from behind all afternoon.
Dolphins vs Chiefs Tip
I have the Chiefs winning 26 to 22, four points into a line of 10.5, so the Dolphins and the points at $1.89 is the bet on this game.
Ben’s Verdict
The Chiefs win this and I have no argument with that part of it. Ten and a half is the argument, and the Dolphins and the points is the answer.
Our Bets
H2H Chiefs$1.13
LINE Dolphins +10.5$1.89
TOTAL Over 45.5$1.95
MULTI Dolphins +10.5, Over 45.5 & De’Von Achane 60+ Rushing Yards$6.74
Player prop predictions
Travis Kelce 60 or more receiving yards, $2.10. He’s gone past 60 receiving in 9 of his last 19 games.
Patrick Mahomes 250 or more passing yards, $2.10. He’s thrown for 250 plus in 11 of his last 16 games.
De’Von Achane 60 or more rushing yards, $1.83. He’s run for 60 plus in 14 of his last 18 games.
Rashee Rice anytime touchdown, $2.30. He’s found the end zone in 5 of his last 10 games.
The multi, $6.74. Dolphins +10.5 at $1.89, Over 45.5 at $1.95 and De’Von Achane 60+ Rushing Yards at $1.83. Three legs, the prop being the one with the strongest record on the board.
Prop prices from Sportsbet at the time of posting; the multi is the legs multiplied together. Records are game logs from last season (regular season and playoffs) and this season so far, checked against NFL.com. Compare before you bet. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Up Next in the NFL
Key Facts
| Match | Miami Dolphins vs Kansas City Chiefs |
| Date | Monday, September 28 |
| Kick-off | 3:00am AEST |
| Venue | Hard Rock Stadium |
| Round | NFL Week 3 |
| Status | Scheduled |
| Our Tip | I have the Chiefs winning 26 to 22, four points into a line of 10.5, so the Dolphins and the points at $1.89 is the bet on this game. |
| Predicted Score | Dolphins 22 – Chiefs 26 |
Miami Dolphins vs Kansas City Chiefs FAQs
Who will win Dolphins vs Chiefs?
The Chiefs, and I have them by four, 26 to 22. They won 33 to 30 at home last week while the Dolphins were beaten 35 to 13, so the winner is not really the question here.
Is there value on the Dolphins vs Chiefs line?
Plenty. The Chiefs are giving 10.5 and I have them by four, a six and a half point gap against the line, well clear of the three point bar I need in the early weeks. The Dolphins at +10.5 for $1.89 is the bet.
What’s the total for Dolphins vs Chiefs?
I make it 48 points against a market of 45.5. Two and a half points is short of my bar, so I am not taking the overs or the unders here.
Why are the Chiefs such big favourites against the Dolphins?
The Dolphins were beaten 35 to 13 last week and the market has priced that result hard. Neither side made the playoffs last season, and the official report gives the Chiefs no advantage worth 10.5 points, which is why I think the line is more than this game deserves.
Who are the Miami Dolphins playing next week?
The Dolphins travel to play the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium on Monday 5 October (AEDT) in NFL Week 4.
Who are the Kansas City Chiefs playing next week?
The Chiefs travel to play the Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium on Monday 5 October (AEDT) in NFL Week 4.
