Chiefs vs Chargers Prediction
The Chiefs are 4-0, the Chargers are 0-5, and I…
Commanders vs Colts Prediction
Neither of these sides has stopped anybody yet, which is the only thing you need to know about a total of 47.5. I make it Colts by a point, so the Commanders and the points is the bet, and the overs rides with it.
NFL Week 4 • 2026
Model Predicted Final Score
WAS
$2.84
Monday, October 5 • 12:30am AEDT
24 : 25
Tottenham Hotspur Stadium
IND
$1.43
Colts by 1 point
Model Predicted Margin
Colts by 1
Current Market
Colts -4.5
3.5 pts tighter
Our Bets This Game
LINECommanders +4.5
$1.84
TOTALOver 47.5
$1.94
MULTICommanders +4.5, Over 47.5 & Jonathan Taylor Anytime TD
$4.71
Claim Tips at Dabble - Offer dabble
Odds correct at time of posting
The Colts are giving 4.5 and I make this a one point game. Both teams travel for this one and neither defence has held up, so the Commanders and the points and the overs are the plays.
Both these sides land here at 1-2 and both have got there the hard way. Nobody in this fixture is playing defence, and with the game parked at a neutral ground in London, whatever comfort the Commanders would normally bank as the home side goes with it.
I get to a one point game and the bookies want the Colts giving 4.5. I still fancy the Colts to win it, but 4.5 is a long way past where I have this, so the money goes on the Commanders and the points rather than the winner. That split is deliberate, not a hedge.
The total is the straightforward part. The Commanders are conceding 30.7 points a game through three weeks, every game they have played has finished over the number, and I get to 49 against a market sitting at 47.5. That will do me at $1.94.
The official report is in and the Commanders carry the damage: Jayden Daniels is ruled out, with a guard, a safety and a running back alongside him, and the line has drifted out to 4.5 since midweek. The Colts have nobody ruled out. An extra point on the side I already had is welcome, and the risk is the total, because a backup quarterback is the one thing that could slow this scoreboard down.
Commanders vs Colts Form Guide
Points per game
WAS25.0
IND24.0
Points conceded per game
WAS30.7
IND30.3
Offensive success rate
WAS41.4%
IND43.3%
Washington Commanders
LLW
- WK 3: W 33-31 vs Seahawks
- WK 2: L 20-37 @ Cowboys
- WK 1: L 22-24 @ Eagles
Indianapolis Colts
LLW
- WK 3: W 19-17 vs Texans
- WK 2: L 30-33 @ Chiefs
- WK 1: L 23-41 vs Ravens
Season to date, weeks 1-3.
Commanders vs Colts Tip
I make it Colts by a point, so the Commanders getting 4.5 is where the line pays.
Ben’s Verdict
A neutral ground strips the crowd out of it and leaves two defences nobody should trust and a total priced as though somebody will make a stop. I will take the points and the overs.
Our Bets
LINE Commanders +4.5$1.84
TOTAL Over 47.5$1.94
MULTI Commanders +4.5, Over 47.5 & Jonathan Taylor Anytime TD$4.71
Player prop predictions
Jonathan Taylor anytime touchdown, $1.32. Jonathan Taylor bagged three touchdowns in five separate games last year and has already scored two in two of his three games this season, so a touchdown in 12 of his last 20 games is no fluke. At $1.32 he carries the multi in a game I have the Colts winning.
The multi, $4.71. Commanders +4.5 at $1.84, Over 47.5 at $1.94 and Jonathan Taylor Anytime TD at $1.32. Three legs, the prop being the one with the strongest record on the board.
Prop prices from Sportsbet at the time of posting; the multi is the legs multiplied together. Records are game logs from last season (regular season and playoffs) and this season so far, checked against NFL.com. Compare before you bet. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
Up Next in the NFL
Key Facts
| Match | Washington Commanders vs Indianapolis Colts |
| Date | Monday, October 5 |
| Kick-off | 12:30am AEDT |
| Venue | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| Round | NFL Week 4 |
| Status | Scheduled |
| Our Tip | I make it Colts by a point, so the Commanders getting 4.5 is where the line pays. |
| Predicted Score | Commanders 24 – Colts 25 |
Washington Commanders vs Indianapolis Colts FAQs
Who will win Commanders vs Colts?
I have the Colts by a point. Both sides come in at 1-2 and both have been giving up points freely, so I expect a busy scoreboard and a close finish rather than a comfortable Colts win.
Is there value on the Commanders vs Colts line?
Yes, on the Commanders. The market has the Colts giving 4.5 and I only make this a one point game, so 3.5 points of daylight is enough for me to take the underdog and the points, even with Jayden Daniels ruled out.
What’s the total for Commanders vs Colts?
I get to 49 and the bookies are at 47.5. Every Commanders game so far has gone over the number and neither side has looked like slowing this one down, so I am on the overs.
Where are the Commanders and Colts playing in Week 4?
At Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London, so it is a neutral ground and both sides travel to get there. Nobody banks a home crowd, which costs the nominal home side more than it costs the Colts.
Who are the Washington Commanders playing next week?
The Commanders host the New York Giants at Northwest Stadium on Monday 12 October (AEDT) in NFL Week 5.
Who are the Indianapolis Colts playing next week?
The Colts travel to play the Pittsburgh Steelers at Acrisure Stadium on Monday 12 October (AEDT) in NFL Week 5.
