NFL Predictions Model
This is the model behind the KRUZEY NFL tips. It prices every game of the regular season, I read what it says, and the bets on the tips pages are the ones I still back once I have.
What kind of model it is
A penalised regression fitted on recent NFL seasons. Nothing exotic. It works out how much each input has actually been worth in past games and discards the ones that were not earning their place, which is what stops it chasing noise it cannot repeat.
What it looks at
The inputs are efficiency numbers built from play by play data. The largest of them is expected points added, on offence and on defence, which measures what a side does with the ball rather than how many yards it piles up. Sitting on top of that is an adjustment for the quarterback on the field, because no other position moves an NFL line as far.
What it gives me
A predicted score for both teams. That is the whole output. From those two numbers I get a margin and a total, which are the two things I can put straight next to what the bookmakers are offering.
What it does not know
It does not read team news. It does not know who is carrying a knock, who is on a snap count, or who got ruled out an hour before kickoff. It has no view on weather, travel, or a side playing its second game in five days. Those are mine to add, and some weeks they are the reason I leave alone a game the model likes.
How a model number becomes a bet
I put the model margin next to the line, and the model total next to the total. If they sit close together the market has the game about right and there is no bet in it, and I say that on the page rather than manufacture one to fill the card. If the gap is wide enough to be worth something, that is the one that gets marked as a bet.
The model does not publish anything. It hands me a number to argue with. The call on the page is mine, and so is the blame when it misses.
Where to see this week’s numbers
Every game gets a call on the NFL tips - Nfl tips page, week by week through the regular season and into the playoffs. More on how the desk works generally is on how we work - How we work.
Frequently asked questions
What is the KRUZEY NFL predictor?
A statistical model that predicts a score for both teams in every NFL game, which I then read against the bookmakers line and total to find the games worth betting.
Does it predict every game?
Yes. Every game of the regular season gets a number, including the ones I end up not betting.
Does the model decide the final tip?
No. It produces the numbers and I make the call. Team news, conditions and a look at the market all sit between the model output and what gets published as a bet.
Is it free?
Yes. Every NFL tip on the site is free to read.