Wellington Horse Racing Tips Sun 5/7/26

Michael Kruse
Updated 5 July 2026

How much give is too much? Wellington is a Heavy 10 today, and on that sort of ground the horses that can get back and wind up late are the ones we keep landing on. Adamana in Race 3 is the shortest we like at $3.20, but there is no standout here, just seven races we have gone through and a few worth a look. The tempo looks slow in most of them, so the map matters. We want the ones that come from off the speed, not the leaders battling through the heavy going.

Raceday weather forecast · 5 Jul 2026Track Heavy 10   Rail True
Morning
Clear
2-14°C
Rain 13% · 0mm
Afternoon
Cloudy
10-15°C
Rain 11% · 0mm
Rain-affected underfoot but dry overhead, so the track should be on the improve through the day.
Forecast for Wellington, New South Wales · WeatherAPI.com · captured 10:34am Sun 5 Jul
Race 1
12:05pm · 1100m · Mdn Plate · 12 runners

7. Argyle Springs $4.60

Barrier 6 · Midfield · No leader

No genuine leader here, so it turns into a sprint home, which suits a horse that finishes off. #7 Argyle Springs sits midfield from gate 6, ran third last start, and comes home strong when the tempo lets him. #2 Harry is no better placed at $3.50, so I’d rather take the $4.60 and the late kick. On him each-way.

Race 2
12:40pm · 1400m · (Bm82) Hcp · 7 runners

4. Tavolo $5.00

Barrier 5 · Backmarker · Soft pace

The favourite doesn’t do it for me at $2.80. #7 Talkachino settles midfield and has the same closing job to do, so why take the short one? #4 Tavolo drops back from a similar spot but knows how to run over the top of them late, and Damon Budler’s on from gate 5. In a soft-run 1400m on a heavy track, I’m happy to take the $5 on the one who finishes strongest.

Race 3
1:20pm · 1400m · Mdn Hcp · 13 runners

8. Adamana $3.20

Barrier 6 · Backmarker · No leader

Winkers go on #8 Adamana and that gets her switched on. She gets back and needs it run to suit, but there’s no leader here, so it turns into a grind home on a heavy 10, and that’s when she picks them off late. Ran third last start, gate 6, Clayton Gallagher aboard. $3.20 and I’m with her.

Race 4
2:01pm · 1700m · (Bm66) Hcp · 11 runners

5. The Great Armada $6.50

Barrier 9 · Off Pace · Soft pace

$6.50 for #5 The Great Armada and I’m on. He won two back, then ran third, and swoops late once this testing 1700m turns into a grind. The fav’s got the same off-the-pace job at $4.60, so I’ll take the value.

Race 5
2:36pm · 1400m · Hcp (C2) · 15 runners

9. Deodee $7.00

Barrier 4 · Midfield · Soft pace

Draw’s the difference here. #9 Deodee gets gate 4 while the fav #4 Vendor has to come across from gate 13. Both settle midfield in a slow-run 1400m, so why take $4.50 on the one giving up all that ground? Nose roll goes on and he’s placed his last couple. $7, I’m on.

Race 6
3:16pm · 1100m · (Bm66) Hcp · 9 runners

10. Ace Of Lace $10.00

Barrier 2 · Off Pace · Hot pace

Hot, off pace trip from gate 2, on a heavy track.

Race 7
3:56pm · 1100m · Hcp (C1) · 12 runners

2. De Joker $4.60

Barrier 6 · Midfield · No leader

#2 De Joker won last start and comes in flying at $4.60. No leader means it turns into a dash home late, and he’s the one peaking at the right time. The favourite #6 May Be Bubbles has the same midfield run to make at $3.60, so taking the horse in form at the bigger price is good enough for me.

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Odds correct at time of writing

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Author Michael Kruse

Michael founded KRUZEY after 15+ years betting on Australian racing - most of it learning expensive lessons the hard way. He's obsessive about form analysis and has a soft spot for finding value in the quaddie markets everyone else ignores. At KRUZEY, Michael covers racing tips, bookmaker reviews, and anything involving crunching numbers to find an edge. He's up before dawn most race days studying the fields, and reckons a well-constructed quaddie is one of life's simple pleasures. Connect on LinkedIn Email Contact