Warwick Farm Racecourse horse racing tips and form preview

Warwick Farm Horse Racing Tips Mon 5/10/26

Michael Kruse
Updated 5 October 2026

The market’s got a couple of short ones wrong at Warwick Farm today, and that’s where we’re keen to get stuck in. Burn The Sky is $2.80 in Race 4 and maps in the same spot as Storm Season, but with weaker recent form. We’ll take $3.30 on Storm Season, who’s heading the right way. Fear No Evil at $3.10 in Race 5 is short for one yet to win this prep, so $7 for Fierceness is the better price. It’s a Soft 6 under fine skies, and our best bet is in Race 8, where a hot pace in a field of 13 should suit something coming from midfield.

Raceday weather forecast · 5 Oct 2026Track Soft 6   Rail True
Morning
Patchy rain nearby
17-18°C
Rain 33% · 0.4mm
Wind 9 km/h WSW
Feels like 17-19°C
Afternoon
Light drizzle
19-19°C
Rain 32% · 0.6mm
Wind 19 km/h E
Feels like 16-18°C
Rain-affected underfoot but dry overhead, so the track should be on the improve through the day.
Forecast for Sydney, New South Wales · WeatherAPI.com · captured 10:09am Mon 5 Oct
Race 4
3:10pm · 1600m · BM72 · 8 runners

2. Storm Season $3.30

Barrier 5 · Midfield · Soft pace

#2 Storm Season has run eighth, fourth, third, then second last start, and she’s knocking on the door. A soft pace doesn’t help her from midfield. But #4 Burn The Sky maps in the same spot, ran fourth last time and is shorter at $2.80. It’s the same problem at a worse price with weaker recent form. Dylan Gibbons rides, and I’m happy to take $3.30 on the one heading the right way.

Race 5
3:45pm · 1600m · BM72 · 10 runners

8. Fierceness $7.00

Barrier 9 · Midfield · No leader

I’m on #8 Fierceness at $7. He’s won two of his last three, including last start, with a second in between, so he knows how to finish. #4 Fear No Evil gets the easy run handy to the speed from gate 2, but $3.10 is short for one yet to win this prep. The catch is gate 9 and no real pace to run at from midfield. That’s the risk I’m taking at seven bucks.

Race 8Best Bet
5:30pm · 1100m · BM72 · 13 runners
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Odds correct at time of writing

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Author Michael Kruse

Michael founded KRUZEY after 15+ years betting on Australian racing - most of it learning expensive lessons the hard way. He's obsessive about form analysis and has a soft spot for finding value in the quaddie markets everyone else ignores. At KRUZEY, Michael covers racing tips, bookmaker reviews, and anything involving crunching numbers to find an edge. He's up before dawn most race days studying the fields, and reckons a well-constructed quaddie is one of life's simple pleasures. Connect on LinkedIn Email Contact