Newcastle Racecourse horse racing tips and form preview

Newcastle Horse Racing Tips Sat 27/6/26

Michael Kruse
26 June 2026

Fierceness in Race 4 is the one that jumped out when we went through the card at Newcastle, an $8.50 chance that looks too big for a horse this well placed. It’s a Heavy 8 with showers about, so the track is the story today. The backmarkers can come into it late if the speed is on, and that’s where Fierceness fits. There’s no standout here, just a few we’re keen on right through the ten races. That’s the angle. Find the ones the wet track suits, and take the price while it’s there.

Raceday weather forecast · 27 Jun 2026Track Heavy 8   Rail +5m
Morning
Patchy rain nearby
12-16°C
Rain 46% · 1.0mm
Afternoon
Patchy rain nearby
14-16°C
Rain 39% · 1.1mm
Rain-affected underfoot but dry overhead, so the track should be on the improve through the day.
Forecast for Newcastle, New South Wales · WeatherAPI.com · captured 10:37am Sat 27 Jun
Race 1
10:45am · 900m · Mdn Plate · 10 runners

5. Kiss Of Gold $3.70

Barrier 4 · Off Pace · No leader

He ran second last time off a freshen, so #5 Kiss Of Gold comes in ready. He settles back from gate 4, but over the 900m he finishes off hard, and with no genuine leader there’s nothing getting too far in front for him to chase. Brock Ryan stays aboard for Matthew Smith. At $3.70 I’d rather have him than take $3.30 on #2 Mr Cacciatore.

Race 2
11:20am · 1200m · Mdn Hcp · 6 runners

5. Poshy’s Girl $5.50

Barrier 3 · Leader · Genuine pace

Gate 3, she can bounce out and lead, and there’s genuine speed to keep the tempo honest. That’s the setup I want for #5 Poshy’s Girl. She’s run three seconds on the bounce, Jean Van Overmeire stays on for Kris Lees, and on a heavy track I’d rather be up on the pace than coming from midfield like the $2.50 favourite. $5.50, I’m on her.

Race 3
11:55am · 1400m · Mdn Plate · 10 runners

9. Artgirl $3.10

Barrier 4 · Midfield · No leader

No clear leader, midfield trip from gate 4, on a heavy track.

Race 4
12:30pm · 1400m · Hcp (C1) · 7 runners

8. Fierceness $8.50

Barrier 2 · Backmarker · No leader

$1.55 for #2 Aethelwulf is too short on three runs. Give me #8 Fierceness at $8.50. Gate 2, won a couple back and ran second last start, and Buckley can switch him off and run over the top of them late. He only needs the luck to fall his way.

Race 5
1:05pm · 1300m · 2yo Hcp · 9 runners

2. Hailstones $4.20

Barrier 9 · Leader · Hot pace

Tongue tie and cross-over nose band on, and #2 Hailstones won the only time he’s been asked. Gate 9 means he’ll have to burn a bit early to cross, but Guymer can muster him to the front and dictate. The favourite sits back at $2.35, and on a Heavy 8 with a hot tempo I’d much sooner be up on the speed than trying to pick them up late. At $4.20, I’m happy to back him to lead and win.

Race 6
1:40pm · 1300m · 2yo Hcp · 9 runners

8. Don’t Doubt Frank $6.00

Barrier 1 · Midfield · No leader

Draw’s the difference here. #8 Don’t Doubt Frank gets the rail from gate 1 while #9 Like An Eagle has to find a way over from gate 9. With no genuine leader, the favourite settles even further back, so I’m not taking $4 on a horse with the same problem from a worse gate. Reith’s had him placing, third last start, and the ear muffs go on to keep him calm early. $6, I’m with him.

Race 7
2:20pm · 1850m · Hcp (Bm64) · 8 runners

5. Tequisoda $4.60

Barrier 1 · Midfield · No leader

I’m with #5 Tequisoda at $4.60. He draws the rail from gate 1, so over 1850m he can save ground and still be there when the run comes. The tongue tie goes on first time, Reith stays on, and with no genuine leader he just needs to pick them off late, which he can do. The favourite has the same job from a worse spot at $2.35. Easy.

Race 8
3:00pm · 1200m · Hcp (Bm64) · 9 runners

10. Bianca Mia $5.50

Barrier 5 · Off Midfield · No leader

Where’s the value in race 8? #10 Bianca Mia at $5.50. #2 Oakfield Neptune is $2.20 and meant to lead, but he’s been settling further back than that price suggests, so I won’t take the short one on a horse without the pace edge it’s paying for. Bianca Mia draws gate 5, keeps running into a place, and the nose roll comes off first time. Happy to take her here.

Race 9
3:35pm · 1200m · Hcp (Bm64) · 10 runners

5. Silencio Porfavor $6.00

Barrier 3 · Midfield · Soft pace

The favourite’s no good to me at $2.70. #5 Silencio Porfavor sits midfield too, but from gate 3 instead of gate 10, and he keeps finding the line with thirds lately. The soft pace is no problem when he runs over the top of them late. Take him at $6 against a fav stuck out wide with the same trip.

Race 10
4:10pm · 1400m · Hcp (Bm68) · 10 runners

5. Rebel Rhapsody $4.50

Barrier 4 · Off Pace · No leader

No clear leader, off pace trip from gate 4, on a heavy track.

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Odds correct at time of writing

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Author Michael Kruse

Michael founded KRUZEY after 15+ years betting on Australian racing - most of it learning expensive lessons the hard way. He's obsessive about form analysis and has a soft spot for finding value in the quaddie markets everyone else ignores. At KRUZEY, Michael covers racing tips, bookmaker reviews, and anything involving crunching numbers to find an edge. He's up before dawn most race days studying the fields, and reckons a well-constructed quaddie is one of life's simple pleasures. Connect on LinkedIn Email Contact