Cranbourne Horse Racing Tips Fri 9/10/26
Nine races at Cranbourne and we're only keen on one,…

The short ones are getting plenty of love at Morphettville, but a Heavy 10 has a habit of turning that on its head. This is a bog, overcast and testing, and the horses sitting on the speed can drown in ground like this. That’s why we keep coming back to Mongolian Gobi in the last. He settles off the pace at $3.60, and on this deck that’s exactly where you want to be. Right through the card we’ve leaned the same way, off-pace types and the better prices, not the runner everyone’s piling onto.
5. Savatoff $7.00
Barrier 9 · Midfield · Soft pace
Second up off a placing and now out to 2500m on a Heavy 10, which is right where #5 Savatoff wants to be. The soft tempo lets him settle midfield and grind over the top of them late when the others feel the bog. The favourite is $2.90 and still has to prove he stays the trip. I’ll take the $7 and the stayer who runs them down. On him.
5. Power Dancer $6.50
Barrier 9 · Midfield · Genuine pace
The favourite’s drawn the carpark in gate 14 and has to come from off the pace, so $3.50 on #7 Street Legal doesn’t tempt me. #5 Power Dancer jumps from gate 9, gets the cleaner midfield run with genuine speed up front, and comes back second-up after running second last start. At $6.50 I’d rather have the one with the better draw and the softer run. Take him each-way.
7. Bouncing Beyond $8.50
Barrier 2 · Midfield · Genuine pace
Blinkers off first time, cross-over band stays on, and #7 Bouncing Beyond gets genuine speed to chase from gate 2. At $8.50 the eights are big enough for me, especially with the fav forced to do the work up front on heavy ground. I’m with him.
7. Posh Diamante $3.80
Barrier 3 · Midfield · Genuine pace
Genuine speed up front, gate 3, and #7 Posh Diamante sits one off the fence ready to pounce. He’s won one of his last four and keeps hitting the line. The fav’s $3.30 from gate 6 with the same run to make, so the $3.80 and the better draw is good enough for me.
12. Queen Christine $5.50
Barrier 3 · Off Pace · Soft pace
Heavy 10 holds no fear for #12 Queen Christine, drawn 3, with Will Price able to give her a soft run just off the speed. The tempo looks slow, but she’s got the late kick to run over the top of them when the others feel the ground. At $5.50 she’s overs on a fav that’s no certainty itself. I’m all over her.
1. Hard Leaf $6.50
Barrier 9 · Off Pace · Soft pace
$6.50 on #1 Hard Leaf, two wins on the bounce and flying. The soft tempo off the speed is the knock, but he quickens late as well as any of these, and that’s better value than a $5 fav with patchier form. Take him.
6. Flash Alice $7.00
Barrier 6 · Midfield · No leader
#6 Flash Alice is the one finding form at the right time, and that’s enough for me at $7. No genuine leader, but the favourite settles even further back, so $3.60 on Our Sassy Lady with the same problem holds no appeal. She won last start, gets a softer midfield run from gate 6 with Harry Grace, and she’s peaking now. Sticking with her.
4. Orthies $5.00
Barrier 7 · Midfield · Soft pace
Soft, midfield trip from gate 7, on a heavy track.
5. Mongolian Gobi $3.60
Barrier 7 · Off Pace · Genuine pace
I’m happy to take #5 Mongolian Gobi at $3.60. There’s genuine speed up front, so a closer who finishes hard sits right in the firing line late. He won last start off the freshen, Campbell Rawiller stays on, and the tongue tie’s back on. The $6 fav has more to do from a wider gate. Easy enough for me.
Odds correct at time of writing
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