Mildura Horse Racing Tips Fri 17/7/26

Michael Kruse
Updated 17 July 2026

It’s Cup day at Mildura, but the feature in Race 7 isn’t where we’ve landed. Fine overhead and a Soft 5 that keeps drying out, so nothing too tricky about the ground. We’ve got three worth a look instead, spread right across the card. Havana Moon at $7 in the maiden reads well out of a 12-horse field, and El Tercero is the one we keep coming back to late in a field of 16.

Raceday weather forecast · 17 Jul 2026Track Soft 5   Rail True
Morning
Clear
7-13°C
Rain 13% · 0mm
Afternoon
Sunny
14-16°C
Rain 4% · 0mm
Rain-affected underfoot but dry overhead, so the track should be on the improve through the day.
Forecast for Mildura, Victoria · WeatherAPI.com · captured 10:28am Fri 17 Jul
Race 3
1:30pm · 1200m · Mdn Plate · 7 runners

6. Havana Moon $7.00

Barrier 2 · Off Pace · Soft pace

Winkers go on for the first time, and that is the hook. #6 Havana Moon draws the fence in gate 2, and even though he settles back, the gear tweak is the sort of change that can put a late kick into him. He keeps hitting the line, placed a few times with a second in there off a freshen. I’d rather take $7 on him than $1.85 for #2 Just Like Jagger off one lone second.

Race 6
3:15pm · 2000m · Hcp (BM70) · 9 runners

7. Pariah Pearl $4.80

Barrier 5 · Pace · No leader

No genuine leader in this, and that is where #7 Pariah Pearl comes into it. He can bowl forward from gate 5, and with the blinkers and bubble cheeker coming off first time, John Allen gets to let him stride without a fight up front. The favourite has to make ground from gate 9 out wide, so I don’t want $2.90 there. At $4.80, Pariah Pearl controls his own race. That’s the one I’m on.

Race 8
4:30pm · 1400m · Hcp (BM66) · 11 runners

4. El Tercero $3.60

Barrier 3 · Off Midfield · No leader

Not for me at $2.90, #3 Zorro’s Flight has to make it all from the back. #4 El Tercero draws gate 3, settles closer, and he’s placed both runs since a freshen. $3.60 with the better draw, easy.

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Odds correct at time of writing

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Author Michael Kruse

Michael founded KRUZEY after 15+ years betting on Australian racing - most of it learning expensive lessons the hard way. He's obsessive about form analysis and has a soft spot for finding value in the quaddie markets everyone else ignores. At KRUZEY, Michael covers racing tips, bookmaker reviews, and anything involving crunching numbers to find an edge. He's up before dawn most race days studying the fields, and reckons a well-constructed quaddie is one of life's simple pleasures. Connect on LinkedIn Email Contact