Flemington Racecourse horse racing tips and form preview

Flemington Horse Racing Tips Sat 3/10/26

Michael Kruse
Updated 3 October 2026

Profligate at $4.20 in Race 4 is the best price we’re keen on at Flemington, and she’s the one I want most at the odds. It’s a Heavy 8 and still raining, so it’s testing ground all day. Natural Fling is short at $2.30, and the worry is gate 10 into a hot pace. Sir Delius at $2.80 and Skybird at $3.30 both look fair to me. We’ve got a best bet in Race 5, a Group 2 with plenty of speed in it.

Raceday weather forecast · 3 Oct 2026Track Heavy 8   Rail +9m
Morning
Light rain shower
13-17°C
Rain 71% · 2.3mm
Wind 16 km/h ESE
Feels like 11-14°C
Afternoon
Light rain shower
13-18°C
Rain 49% · 1.1mm
Wind 19 km/h SE
Feels like 10-16°C
Rain through the morning then easing, enough early to take the edge off the track before the first.
Forecast for Flemington, Victoria · WeatherAPI.com · captured 4:05pm Sat 3 Oct
Race 4
2:05pm · 1600m · Group 2 · 12 runners

3. Profligate $4.20

Barrier 7 · Off Midfield · Genuine pace

Third up is where I want #3 Profligate. She ran fourth first up and improved to third last start. Now she gets a genuine tempo to run into from just off midfield on a Heavy 8. #5 Portinari is the danger, but she’s drawn 12 in a Group 2 and has to find cover from out there. $4.20 for Profligate, and I’m happy to back her to win.

Race 5Best Bet
2:40pm · 1400m · Group 2 · 11 runners
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Race 6
3:15pm · 1100m · Group 2 · 11 runners

10. Natural Fling $2.30

Barrier 10 · Leader · Hot pace

I like #10 Natural Fling at $2.30. She won first up, ran third last start and wants to lead for Lane. The worry is gate 10 into a hot pace.

Race 8
4:25pm · 2000m · Group 1 · 13 runners

2. Sir Delius $2.80

Barrier 9 · Off Pace · No leader

Can #2 Sir Delius run them down with no real leader up front? I think he can. He ran fourth first up and won his last start the prep before. With Craig Williams aboard, I think he comes home strong from gate 9 on a Heavy 8. #5 Aeliana has the better draw at $3.90, but $2.80 for Sir Delius is the one I want to win.

Race 9
5:05pm · 1200m · Group 2 · 10 runners

15. Skybird $3.30

Barrier 2 · Off Midfield · No leader

Drawn 2 with Ben Melham up, #15 Skybird gets the inside run second up on a Heavy 8. #3 Arkansaw Kid has to work from gate 7 to find the front. $3.30 for Skybird, good enough for me.

Race 10
5:40pm · 1400m · Listed · 11 runners

11. Ten Commandments $2.70

Barrier 3 · Off Pace · Soft pace

Yes please to #11 Ten Commandments at $2.70, and I want him to win. He’s won four this prep, including last start, so he knows how to finish. Settling back in a soft-paced race is the knock, but from gate 3 Jabez Johnstone can pick his spot and peel out late.

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Odds correct at time of writing

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Author Michael Kruse

Michael founded KRUZEY after 15+ years betting on Australian racing - most of it learning expensive lessons the hard way. He's obsessive about form analysis and has a soft spot for finding value in the quaddie markets everyone else ignores. At KRUZEY, Michael covers racing tips, bookmaker reviews, and anything involving crunching numbers to find an edge. He's up before dawn most race days studying the fields, and reckons a well-constructed quaddie is one of life's simple pleasures. Connect on LinkedIn Email Contact