Caulfield Horse Racing Tips Sat 10/10/26
Caulfield runs a staying card, from 1100m out to 2400m,…

Big country fields at Donald and the crowd will jam onto the short ones, but I’m not so sure today. Look down the card and barely a race has a genuine leader, so the on-pace types can’t just roll along in front and dictate terms. On a Heavy 8 with twenty lining up in most of them, that suits horses who settle back and run home late. Just Swift is the right favourite in Race 1, but where it pays is later on the card, on the bigger prices that can pick up the pieces when the speed crawls.
12. Just Swift $3.00
Barrier 8 · Backmarker · No leader
The gear’s the hook. #12 Just Swift gets the tongue tie and cross-over nose band on, and he’s knocking on the door off a couple of seconds. No clear leader means it can get scratchy late, and he settles closer than most and runs over the top of them. From gate 8 on a Heavy 8, Maskiell just has to let him wind up. $3, on him to win.
6. Ngongotaha $5.00
Barrier 5 · Off Pace · Genuine pace
Who runs over the top of them when there’s genuine speed up front? #6 Ngongotaha at $5. He gets back but finishes off, and with the leaders going hard the race sets up for one coming late. He ran third last start after a fourth before that, and Maskiell stays on. Brazen Warrior has to do it from midfield at $2.70; I’d rather be with the one swooping at $5.
9. Ramelle $4.50
Barrier 5 · Off Midfield · No leader
$1.80 for #11 Starburst first-up off a spell? Not for me. #9 Ramelle gets the winkers on, gate 5, and Brad Rawiller can pop him into the race from midfield. No genuine leader up front, but the fav settles even further back, so I won’t take odds-on on a horse with the same problem. $4.50, take him.
6. Shadow Black $4.20
Barrier 6 · Midfield · No leader
#6 Shadow Black gets gate 6, one inside the fav, and he’s the bigger price at $4.20. He ran third last start, Brad Rawiller stays on, and I’d rather have him than the $4 on Redemption Time.
14. Paris Affair $7.50
Barrier 2 · Midfield · Soft pace
Honest as they come, #14 Paris Affair has placed three straight and gets the winkers on for the first time. Gate 2, saves ground, runs home late. $7.50, I’m with him.
10. Solar Mist $7.50
Barrier 6 · Midfield · Genuine pace
I’m on #10 Solar Mist at $7.50. Winkers come off first time, there’s genuine speed up front to chase, and from gate 6 she settles midfield ready to pick them up late. The favourite sits in the same spot from a worse gate at $6. Easy.
10. Mishima $9.50
Barrier 3 · Off Pace · No leader
Big overs here. #10 Mishima at $9.50 with the lugging bit and nose roll on, gate 3, and Brad Rawiller to swoop late. No real leader, so it sets up for a finisher coming over the top. Happy to take the each-way.
Odds correct at time of writing
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