Western Bulldogs vs Essendon Prediction

Game 6 of Round 10 of the 2025 Toyota AFL Premiership predictions on May 17 sees Western Bulldogs vs Essendon at Marvel Stadium on Saturday night. You can catch the game live on Kayo, & Foxtel. 🏉🔥

Western Bulldogs vs Essendon Bombers Predictions

Saturday, May 17, 2025

7:35 pm AEDT @ Marvel Stadium, Melbourne

Final Score Prediction

Western Bulldogs

85 : 77

Essendon

Win Percentages

Western Bulldogs 59.59%

Essendon 40.41%

Bulldogs

Essendon

Quick Insight

At the time of writing Unibet had the head to head for the Western Bulldogs set at $1.26, and $3.80 for the Essendon Bombers, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:

Bulldogs 75.11%
Bombers 24.89%

The Betting Edge

Unibet’s made the Western Bulldogs heavy favourites here at $1.26, giving them a massive 75.11% implied win chance. Essendon, on the other hand, are way out at $3.80, which suggests just a 24.89% chance of causing an upset.

Now, our model definitely favours the Dogs, but not by that much. We’ve got the Bulldogs at 59.59% and Essendon at 40.41%. That’s a big difference compared to what the market’s saying, and yep, that means the Bombers are being seriously underrated.

The Bulldogs are the better team, no doubt. But at $3.80, Essendon are offering huge value for anyone looking to back an underdog with a real puncher’s chance.

Power Rankings Breakdown

Let’s see how the two teams stack up across the board:

Western Bulldogs vs Essendon Head-to-Head Stats

Average Points For Per Match: Western Bulldogs by 22.2 points
Average Points Against Per Match: Western Bulldogs by 4 points
Power Rank: Western Bulldogs by 5
Average Winning Margin: Western Bulldogs by 30.6 points
Strength of Schedule Adjusted Points For: Western Bulldogs by 19 points
Win %: Essendon by 7%
Average Opponent Ladder Rank: Western Bulldogs by 4 ranks
Average Opponent Win %: Essendon by 3%
Average Opponent Points For: Essendon by 11 points
Highest Score For: Western Bulldogs by 31 points
Highest Score Against: Western Bulldogs by 43 points
Highest Total Match Score: Essendon by 46 points
Lowest Total Match Score: Essendon by 19 points
Adjusted Points For: Western Bulldogs by 19 points
Adjusted Points Against: Essendon by 7 points
True Power Score (Weighted): Western Bulldogs by 9.4
OVER/UNDER Tempo: 178.6
Game Style Prediction: Likely Blowout
Total Power Rank Score (Lower is Better): Western Bulldogs: 5.83, Essendon: 7.00 – (Western Bulldogs by 1.17)

Over/Under Tempo: Expect a high-scoring, fast-paced shootout.

Game Style Prediction: Likely Blowout. Bulldogs have the firepower to run away with it if they control early.

What to do?

The Bulldogs are the better side, and they’re playing more dominant footy, but at $1.26, there’s no real value in backing them straight up. The market’s priced them like it’s a foregone conclusion, but our model doesn’t see it that way.

Essendon at $3.80 is where the edge lies. The Bombers are no walkover, and they’ve actually got a higher win rate this season. If they can contain the Dogs’ explosive ball movement and take their chances up forward, there’s real upset potential here.

For punters chasing value: it’s Bombers or nothing. Best bet is to take the Bombers +23.5.

As for multis, take the Essendon +23.5, UNDER 175.5, Western Bulldogs 1-39 for $5.75 with Unibet.