Sydney vs Port Adelaide Prediction & Betting Analysis Round 6

Sydney Swans vs Port Adelaide Power Predictions

Game 7 of Round 6 of the 2025 Toyota AFL Premiership predictions sees Sydney vs Port Adelaide on April 20 at the SCG on Sunday afternoon. You can catch the game live on Kayo, Foxtel, and Channel 7. 🏉🔥

Sunday, April 20, 2025

3:20 pm AEDT @ SCG, Sydney

Final Score Prediction

Sydney

75 : 58

Port Adelaide Port Adelaide Power

Win Percentages

Sydney 51.93%

Port Adelaide 48.07%

Sydney

Port Adelaide

Quick Insight

At the time of writing Ladbrokes had the head to head for Sydney Swans set at $1.46, and $2.70 for the Port Adelaide Power, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:

Swans 64.90%
Power 35.10%

Opportunity Bet

The Betting Edge – Sydney Swans vs Port Adelaide Power

The bookies are all over Sydney in this one, but when you line up the implied odds with our model and the power rankings, things start to look a bit different. Port Adelaide might not be favourites, but they’re nowhere near the long shot the market makes them out to be.

The Betting Edge

Here’s where it gets interesting, the bookies are pricing Sydney as a 65% chance to win, but our model has them only just ahead at 51.93%. That’s a significant gap in probability, which gives us clear value on Port Adelaide.

At 48.07%, Port’s fair odds should be closer to $2.08, yet they’re sitting out at $2.70, that’s a huge edge in favour of the Power.

Power Rankings Snapshot:

Metric	Sydney	Port Adelaide
Overall Power Ranking	15	7
Balanced Power Score	13	2
Points For (Home/Away Rank)	15	18
Points Conceded Rank	12	14
Win % (Home/Away Rank)	16	13

Summary

The Swans may be slight favourites in our model, but the market has taken that way too far. The value here is all on Port Adelaide. With stronger power rankings, a nearly 50/50 shot according to our numbers, and juicy odds of $2.70, they’re easily one of the top value bets of the round.

What to do?

We are looking at an estimated score well below the OVER/UNDER of 172.5, going Port Adelaide for the +14.5 line is also a good shout, this one does have real potential for an upset so if you are looking for a bit more value, taking a stab at Port Adelaide on the H-2-H (or even the Port Adelaide 1-39 winning margin) is worth considering.

Port Adelaide Power at $2.70 – undervalued and worth a serious look.

Suggested Betting Tip:

UNDER 172.5 @ $1.88 with
Ladbrokes

H-2-H Bet:

Sydney $1.46 with
Ladbrokes

Winning Margin Bet:

Sydney 1.39 @ $2.15 with
Ladbrokes

OVER/UNDER Bet:

Port Adelaide +14.5 @ $1.90 with
Ladbrokes

Syndey vs Port Adelaide SGM

Head-to-Head Stats

Average Points For Per Match: Sydney: 84.2, Port Adelaide: 87.6 – (Port Adelaide by 3.4 points)
Average Points Against Per Match: Sydney: 81.6, Port Adelaide: 91.2 – (Sydney by 9.6 points)
Average Winning Margin: Sydney: 34.0, Port Adelaide: 51.0 – (Port Adelaide by 17 points)
Average Losing Margin: Sydney: 18.3, Port Adelaide: 40.0 – (Sydney by 21.7 points)
HT/FT Double %: Sydney: 20.0%, Port Adelaide: 40.0% – (Port Adelaide by 20%)
Highest Score For: Sydney: 117, Port Adelaide: 140 – (Port Adelaide by 23 points)
Highest Score Against: Sydney: 109, Port Adelaide: 136 – (Sydney by 27 points)
Biggest Win: Sydney: 65, Port Adelaide: 72 – (Port Adelaide by 7 points)
Biggest Loss: Sydney: 31, Port Adelaide: 91 – (Sydney more resilient by 60 points)
Highest Total Match Score: Sydney: 187, Port Adelaide: 212 – (Port Adelaide by 25 points)
Lowest Total Match Score: Sydney: 133, Port Adelaide: 132 – (Sydney by 1 point)
Goal Accuracy For %: Sydney: 60.8%, Port Adelaide: 55.3% – (Sydney by 5.5%)
Goal Accuracy Against %: Sydney: 56.7%, Port Adelaide: 60.6% – (Sydney by 3.9%)
Current Streak: N/A
Current Form: N/A
Choke % (Loss % After Leading At HT): N/A
Reliability % (Win % After Leading At HT): N/A
Comeback % (Win % After Trailing At HT): N/A
Last Encounter Winner and Margin: Sydney won by 36 points (95-59) on 20th September 2024