St Kilda vs North Melbourne Prediction

St Kilda Saints vs North Melbourne Kangaroos Betting Preview: Value in the Underdog

Home • $1.27

Away • $3.80

TBD • Marvel Stadium • Indoor

Looking at this St Kilda vs North Melbourne clash at Marvel Stadium, I’m seeing serious value in backing the underdog here.

The Saints are paying $1.27 to win – that’s a whopping 79% implied chance – but when you dig into these numbers, that price looks way too skinny for a team that’s dropped four of their last five.

Cast your mind back to their last meeting earlier this season in Round 8 – St Kilda absolutely thumped North by 38 points, winning 103-65 after a blistering six-goal burst in the first half.

The Saints dominated the clearances (+12) and inside 50s (+17), with Darcy Wilson bagging three goals and Jack Sinclair controlling things with 31 touches. But here’s the thing – that was a different St Kilda side, one that hadn’t yet hit this current form slump.

KRUZEY’S TIPS

After crunching the numbers and tracking both teams’ recent form, I’m seeing clear value in fading the Saints at these prices.

St Kilda’s averaging just 81.6 points in their last five games – well down on their season average – and they’ve lost four straight before scraping past Melbourne last week.

Meanwhile, North’s defensive numbers have been copping a hammering, but at $3.80 they’re offering genuine value for what shapes as a closer contest than the market suggests.

BEST BET

LINE BETTING

North Melbourne +24.5

$1.90

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VALUE BET

Under 175.5 Total Points

$1.88

BET NOW

SMART HEDGE

North Melbourne Head-to-Head

$3.80

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All odds from Unibet, correct at time of posting

KRUZEY MODEL VS MARKET

Here’s where it gets interesting – my model actually has this much closer than the bookies think.

Based on season averages adjusted for recent form and the indoor conditions at Marvel, I’m predicting St Kilda 88, North Melbourne 71. That’s a 17-point margin, well inside the 24.5-point line on offer.

That gives St Kilda a 54.5% win chance, North Melbourne 45.5% – significantly different from the market’s assessment.

The bookmakers have St Kilda at $1.27 (79% implied) versus North at $3.80 (26% implied).

The Market Edge: North Melbourne offers massive value here. My 45.5% chance versus the market’s 26% implied probability represents a huge 19.5% edge.

Even if you’re conservative and think North only wins 35% of the time, that $3.80 price is still excellent value.

Our Prediction

STK 88 | NTH 71

Win Probability

STK 54.5% | NTH 45.5%

Market Edge

19.5%

on North Melbourne

FORM LINE

Looking at the last five games tells the real story here. St Kilda’s form has fallen off a cliff – they’ve lost to Geelong by 31, Sydney by 5, Hawthorn by 20, and Fremantle by 12, before finally breaking their losing streak against Melbourne last week.

What’s more concerning is their scoring – averaging just 81.6 points across those five games, with accuracy becoming a real issue (they kicked 9.15 against Fremantle).

North Melbourne’s last five don’t make for pretty reading either – they’ve copped some absolute hidings, losing to Geelong by 101 and Hawthorn by 85. But dig deeper and there are positives.

Their young guns like Wardlaw, Sheezel and McKercher are consistently getting 25+ touches, and they actually beat Melbourne 83-71 just two weeks ago. Yes, they’re inconsistent, but at these odds they only need to keep it close.

St Kilda Saints

LLLLW

lost to Geelong by 31
lost to Sydney by 5
lost to Hawthorn by 20
lost to Fremantle by 12
beat Melbourne last week

North Melbourne Kangaroos

LLW

lost to Geelong by 101
lost to Hawthorn by 85
beat Melbourne 83-71 two weeks ago

KEY STATS

The season averages paint an interesting picture. St Kilda averages 11.8 goals per game at home versus North’s 11.1 away – that’s virtually nothing between them in scoring power.

The Saints do have a slight edge in inside 50s (48.4 to 45.4), but North actually wins the clearance battle on average (40.2 to 38.4).

What really catches my eye is disposal efficiency – North’s 73.8% trumps St Kilda’s 72.1%.

In a game that could be scrappy given the indoor conditions and both teams’ recent form, that extra polish with ball in hand could be crucial.

The contested possession numbers are dead even (129.1 plays 128.9), suggesting this won’t be the walkover the odds suggest.

GOALS PER GAME

St Kilda
11.8

North
11.1

INSIDE 50S

St Kilda
48.4

North
45.4

CLEARANCES

North
40.2

St Kilda
38.4

DISPOSAL EFFICIENCY

North
73.8%

St Kilda
72.1%

CONTESTED POSSESSIONS

St Kilda
129.1

North
128.9

THE FINAL WORD

Everything points to this being much closer than the market suggests. St Kilda’s recent form stinks, North showed against Melbourne they can compete, and the indoor conditions at Marvel should suit a tighter, more contested affair.

My model has it at 17 points, making the line bet at North +24.5 the standout play.

For those feeling brave, that $3.80 about North winning outright represents serious value – they only need to pinch this 46% of the time to show a profit at those odds.

Back the Roos with the start, keep the stakes sensible, and don’t be surprised if this goes down to the wire.

LOCK IT IN: North Melbourne +24.5

Making the line bet at North +24.5 the standout play.

BET NOW