Richmond vs Adelaide Prediction

Richmond’s MCG Misery Set to Continue Against Resurgent Adelaide

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Sunday • MCG • TBA

I’ve been tracking Richmond’s slide all season, but nothing prepared me for that 79-point demolition by the Bulldogs last round. When you’re leaking 21 goals in a game, you know the wheels have completely fallen off.

Now they’re hosting an Adelaide side that’s found its mojo – this could get ugly at the ‘G on Sunday afternoon.

The Tigers haven’t won since Round 10, dropping five straight with an average losing margin of 31 points. Meanwhile, Adelaide’s bounced back from early-season struggles to win three of their last five, including that impressive 90-point hiding of Sydney at the SCG.

When these two last met in Round 2, 2023, Richmond’s lethal accuracy (17 goals from 23 shots) proved the difference in a 32-point win. But that was a very different Tigers outfit – one that could actually defend.

KRUZEY’S TIPS

After crunching these numbers, three bets jumped out at me immediately. Richmond’s defensive woes combined with Adelaide’s improving attack create some clear value opportunities.

The line feels conservative given current form, and that total points market? Well, let’s just say the bookies might have this one wrong.

BEST BET

Adelaide Crows Head-to-Head

$1.11

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VALUE BET

Adelaide -36.5

$1.88

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SMART HEDGE

Under 174.5 Total Points

$1.88

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All odds from Unibet, correct at time of posting

KRUZEY MODEL VS MARKET

Look, I know backing massive favourites isn’t sexy, but sometimes the data screams at you. My model’s spitting out a result that suggests the bookies might actually be too kind to Richmond here.

Let me show you why Adelaide should cover that hefty spread.

The Market Edge: While Richmond shows a theoretical edge with our 33.2% chance versus the market’s 16% implied probability, the value bet recommendation is Adelaide -36.5 given their dominant recent form and Richmond’s defensive collapse

Our Prediction

RIC 71 | ADE 90

Win Probability

RIC 33.2% | ADE 66.8%

Market Edge

17.2%

on Richmond

FORM LINE

Richmond’s last five reads like a horror story – five straight losses by margins of 79, 44, 3, 23 and 4 points.

They’re averaging just 60 points while conceding 91. That’s relegation-level footy.

The most concerning part? They managed just 36 points against Sydney and 56 against the Bulldogs – two of their worst offensive performances in years.

Adelaide’s form sheet shows more promise with three wins from five, though that 3-point loss to Hawthorn where they kicked 5.14 will still sting.

They’ve averaged 87.8 points in their last five while conceding 58.2. Not world-beating, but miles ahead of Richmond’s current output.

Richmond Tigers

LLLLL

Five straight losses by margins of 79, 44, 3, 23 and 4 points.
Average just 60 points while conceding 91.
Managed just 36 points against Sydney and 56 against the Bulldogs – two of their worst offensive performances in years.

Adelaide Crows

WWLWL

Three wins from five.
Average 87.8 points in their last five while conceding 58.2.
3-point loss to Hawthorn where they kicked 5.14 will still sting.

KEY STATS

The season averages paint a damning picture for Richmond. Adelaide’s averaging 14.4 goals per game to Richmond’s 9.1 – that’s a staggering 33-point differential right there.

The Crows dominate every key metric: inside 50s (55.3 to 44.6), clearances (39.4 to 33.2), and contested possessions (139.2 to 122.6).

Richmond’s disposal efficiency of 72.2% actually edges Adelaide’s 70.6%, but when you’re getting smashed in territory and possession, clean ball use only goes so far.

Adelaide’s ability to win the ball and get it forward should overwhelm Richmond’s porous defence.

GOALS PER GAME

Adelaide
14.4

Richmond
9.1

INSIDE 50s

Adelaide
55.3

Richmond
44.6

CLEARANCES

Adelaide
39.4

Richmond
33.2

CONTESTED POSSESSIONS

Adelaide
139.2

Richmond
122.6

DISPOSAL EFFICIENCY

Richmond
72.2%

Adelaide
70.6%

THE FINAL WORD

Everything points to a comfortable Adelaide victory on Sunday. Richmond’s defensive structure has completely collapsed – they’re conceding 91 points per game in their last five compared to their season average of 82.

Combine that with Adelaide’s attacking firepower and you’ve got all the ingredients for a blowout.

My best bet remains Adelaide head-to-head at $1.11. Yes, the odds are short, but sometimes you take the gift.

For those wanting better value, Adelaide -36.5 at $1.88 looks solid given Richmond’s average losing margin of 31 points in recent weeks.

The smart hedge is under 174.5 total points – Richmond’s offensive struggles should keep this total in check despite Adelaide’s scoring power.

LOCK IT IN: Adelaide Crows Head-to-Head @ $1.11

Adelaide should breeze past a Richmond side in total defensive disarray.

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