Melbourne vs North Melbourne Prediction

Melbourne Demons Seek Redemption Against Resurgent North Melbourne at the MCG

Home • $1.21

Away • $4.25

Sunday • MCG • Perfect conditions

After copping a 59-point hiding from North Melbourne back in Round 2, the Demons get their chance for payback on home turf this Sunday. But here’s the kicker – Melbourne’s lost five straight and can’t buy a win, while the Kangaroos just competed strongly with the high-flying Bulldogs and have shown they can mix it with anyone on their day.

With the bookies having Melbourne as heavy favourites at $1.21, I’m seeing some serious value in backing the underdog Roos to keep this close.

Both sides come into this clash banged up and out of form. Melbourne blew a 28-point lead against Adelaide last week, managing just five goals after half-time in another frustrating loss. North copped a 49-point defeat to the Bulldogs but showed plenty of fight early with Nick Larkey bagging five goals. The injury clouds hanging over Tristan Xerri and Luke Davies-Uniacke could be crucial – if they’re out, Melbourne’s midfield advantage grows significantly.

KRUZEY’S TIPS

After crunching the numbers, I’m steering clear of Melbourne’s skinny head-to-head price and looking at where the real value lies.

That 26.5-point line feels way too generous given Melbourne’s woeful form and North’s ability to compete for three quarters before fading.

The total also catches my eye – both teams have been involved in low-scoring affairs recently.

BEST BET

LINE BETTING

North Melbourne +26.5

$1.88

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VALUE BET

Under 168.5 Total Points

$1.88

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SMART HEDGE

North Melbourne Head to Head

$4.25

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All odds from Unibet, correct at time of posting

KRUZEY MODEL VS MARKET

Look, the raw data tells an interesting story here. My model’s got this as a genuine arm-wrestle, nothing like the blow-out the bookies are predicting. Based on recent form and season averages, I’m seeing a much tighter contest than the market suggests.

Our Data Says: Melbourne 74, North Melbourne 72 (based on season averages adjusted for recent form)

That gives Melbourne a 52.7% win chance, North Melbourne 47.3%

Bookmakers have Melbourne at $1.21 (82.6% implied) vs North Melbourne at $4.25 (23.5% implied)

The Market Edge: North Melbourne offers massive value – our 47.3% chance vs market’s 23.5% implied probability suggests the Roos are being seriously underrated here. That’s a whopping 23.8% edge in our favour.

Our Prediction

MEL 74 | NM 72

Win Probability

MEL 52.7% | NM 47.3%

Market Edge

23.8%

on North Melbourne

FORM LINE

The form book makes for grim reading if you’re a Demons fan. Melbourne’s dropped their last five on the trot, averaging just 73 points per game while conceding 90. They’ve been particularly poor after half-time, getting outscored by an average of 15 points in the second half of games. The defensive structure that was their trademark has completely fallen apart.

North Melbourne’s form isn’t flash either – they’ve won just two of their last five – but they’ve been competitive in patches. Their two wins came against Carlton and West Coast, and they pushed Fremantle hard in a six-point loss. The concern is their inability to run out games, particularly evident in that Bulldogs loss where they conceded 10 goals to 5 after half-time.

Melbourne Demons

LLLLL

The form book makes for grim reading if you’re a Demons fan. Melbourne’s dropped their last five on the trot, averaging just 73 points per game while conceding 90. They’ve been particularly poor after half-time, getting outscored by an average of 15 points in the second half of games. The defensive structure that was their trademark has completely fallen apart.

North Melbourne Kangaroos

WWLLL

North Melbourne’s form isn’t flash either – they’ve won just two of their last five – but they’ve been competitive in patches. Their two wins came against Carlton and West Coast, and they pushed Fremantle hard in a six-point loss. The concern is their inability to run out games, particularly evident in that Bulldogs loss where they conceded 10 goals to 5 after half-time.

KEY STATS

The season averages paint an intriguing picture. Melbourne’s scoring just 10.9 goals per game at home – well below the league average – while North manages 11.5 on the road. That’s your first clue this won’t be a high-scoring affair. The Demons do dominate territory with 52.3 inside 50s per game compared to North’s 46, but they’re not converting those entries into scores.

Where it gets really interesting is the clearance battle. North Melbourne actually averages more clearances per game (40.7 to 36.4), which could be crucial if Xerri gets up to play. Both sides sit at around 73% disposal efficiency, so there’s no major gap in skill execution – it’ll come down to effort and intensity, areas where North has shown more fight recently despite their results.

GOALS PER GAME

North
11.5

Melb
10.9

INSIDE 50S PER GAME

Melb
52.3

North
46

CLEARANCES PER GAME

North
40.7

Melb
36.4

DISPOSAL EFFICIENCY

Melb
73%

North
73%

SELECTION WATCH

Team selections yet to be announced – Michael Kruse will update our analysis once the lineups drop.

The big watch will be on North’s injury concerns from last week. If Davies-Uniacke (concussion) and Xerri (head knock) are ruled out, Melbourne’s price might actually be justified. But if they get up, this becomes a very different contest.

THE FINAL WORD

Everything points to this being much closer than the market suggests. Melbourne can’t score, can’t defend, and can’t close out games. North Melbourne might not be world-beaters, but they’ve shown enough fight in recent weeks to suggest they won’t just roll over at the MCG.

In perfect conditions at the spiritual home of football, I’m backing this to be a low-scoring grind rather than the percentage-boosting blow-out the bookies are predicting. Take the points with North Melbourne – at nearly four goals head start, they represent outstanding value in what shapes as an ugly Sunday afternoon affair.

LOCK IT IN: North Melbourne +26.5

Take the points with North Melbourne – at nearly four goals head start, they represent outstanding value in what shapes as an ugly Sunday afternoon affair.

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