Melbourne vs Gold Coast Prediction

So here’s where the edge pops up, while the bookies are pricing it like a coin flip, our numbers give a much stronger lean toward the Suns. Gold Coast are looking like the clear favourites in this one.

Based on our 63.4% win probability, the Suns should actually be priced closer to $1.58, not the $1.85 currently on offer. That’s some solid value right there.

What to do?

The betting edge sits with the Gold Coast Suns. With the market underrating them slightly, backing the Suns at $1.85 gives us a nice little edge based on the data, however we must bear in mind that the Suns have consistently lost to the Demons for over 10 years (yes, you read that right!), there’s a whole bunch of mental game in this match and the boys from the Goldy will be facing their fears on the Demons home turf at the G.

There isn’t really a comparison so far this year between these two, the Suns are leagues in front and hopefully Round 1’s thrashing of the Eagles will be enough of a confidence boost to get them past their 10 year losing streak to the Dee’s.

Go the Suns -1.5 for the easy win, but if you want to take a little more of a gamble Suns at 1-39 winning margin is also a pretty good option.

Head-to-Head Stats

• Average Points For Per Match: Melbourne: 70.0, Gold Coast: 136.0 – (Gold Coast by 66 points)
• Average Points Against Per Match: Melbourne: 101.0, Gold Coast: 49.0 – (Gold Coast by 52 points)
• Average Winning Margin: Melbourne: N/A, Gold Coast: 87.0 – (Gold Coast dominant)
• Average Losing Margin: Melbourne: 31.0, Gold Coast: N/A – (Melbourne less resilient)
• HT/FT Double %: Melbourne: 0.0%, Gold Coast: 100.0% – (Gold Coast by 100%)
• Highest Score For: Melbourne: 74, Gold Coast: 136 – (Gold Coast by 62 points)
• Highest Score Against: Melbourne: 125, Gold Coast: 49 – (Gold Coast better by 76 points)
• Biggest Win: Melbourne: N/A, Gold Coast: 87 – (Gold Coast dominant)
• Biggest Loss: Melbourne: 59, Gold Coast: N/A – (Melbourne more exposed)
• Highest Total Match Score: Melbourne: 191, Gold Coast: 185 – (Melbourne by 6 points)
• Lowest Total Match Score: Melbourne: 151, Gold Coast: 185 – (Melbourne by 34 points)
• Goal Accuracy For %: Melbourne: 52.6%, Gold Coast: 66.7% – (Gold Coast by 14.1%)
• Goal Accuracy Against %: Melbourne: 65.2%, Gold Coast: 53.8% – (Gold Coast by 11.4%)
• Current Streak: Melbourne: L2, Gold Coast: W1 – (Gold Coast momentum)
• Current Form: Melbourne: LL, Gold Coast: W – (Gold Coast form edge)
• Choke % (Loss % After Leading HT): Melbourne: 0.0%, Gold Coast: 0.0% – (Even)
• Reliability % (Win % After Leading HT): Melbourne: 0.0%, Gold Coast: 100.0% – (Gold Coast by 100%)
• Comeback % (Win % After Trailing HT): Melbourne: 0.0%, Gold Coast: 0.0% – (Even)
• Last Encounter Winner and Margin: Melbourne won by 54 points (117–63) on 17th August 2024