Gold Coast vs Richmond Prediction

Can the Red-Hot Suns Put a 50-Burger on the Struggling Tigers?

Home • $1.04

VS

Away • $11.00

Round 21 • People First Stadium

KRUZEY’S TIPS

After crunching these numbers, I’m seeing a classic case where the market might have overreacted to one blowout result.

Yes, Gold Coast thumped Brisbane, but Richmond showed genuine fight for a half against the Pies before fading.

The 50.5-point line feels inflated, especially with the Tigers’ recent history of keeping games respectable on the scoreboard.

My model suggests this lands closer to a 41-point margin, giving us a rare edge on what looks like silly odds.

All odds from Unibet, correct at time of posting

KRUZEY MODEL VS MARKET

Here’s where the data gets interesting. My prediction model, which factors in both season averages and recent form, has this game finishing with a more modest margin than the bookies suggest. While Gold Coast should cruise to victory, the market’s gotten carried away with that Brisbane demolition job.

Our Data Says: Gold Coast 105, Richmond 64 (based on season averages adjusted for recent form)

That gives Gold Coast a 65.3% win chance, Richmond 34.7%

Bookmakers have Gold Coast at $1.04 (96.2% implied) vs Richmond at $11.00 (9.1% implied)

The Market Edge: Richmond +50.5 offers significant value – our 41-point predicted margin vs market’s 50.5-point line

FORM LINE

Gold Coast’s last five games read like a premiership contender’s dream: four wins from five, including that statement 66-point thrashing of Brisbane where Matt Rowell collected 37 touches and the Ashcroft Medal. They’re averaging 92.8 points across this stretch while keeping opponents to just 78.6.

Richmond’s form tells a different story – two wins and three losses in their last five, with those victories coming against bottom-dwellers West Coast and a spluttering Essendon.

The Tigers managed just 8 goals against Collingwood last week and have scored only 62.8 points on average across their recent run.

KEY STATS

The statistical gap between these sides is stark, but perhaps not as extreme as the 50.5-point line suggests. Gold Coast’s recent scoring average of 92.8 points meets Richmond’s defensive output of 86.4 points conceded – that’s a projected margin of just 6.4 points based on attack alone.

Factor in Richmond’s anaemic 62.8-point scoring average against Gold Coast’s 78.6-point defensive record, and you get closer to a 15.8-point buffer.

Split the difference and you’re looking at something in the 35-45 point range, not the 50+ the market’s pricing in.