Collingwood vs Fremantle Prediction

MAGPIES SOAR BUT CAN THEY CLIP DOCKERS’ WINGS AT THE ‘G?

Home • $1.32

Away • $3.40

Sunday • MCG • TBD

Here’s a question that’s been bouncing around my head since watching both these sides last week – which Collingwood turns up on Sunday?

The team that went scoreless for a half against Gold Coast, or the one that nearly pulled off a miracle comeback?

Because against this red-hot Fremantle outfit, they’ll need to bring their A-game from the opening bounce.

This clash matters because we’ve got two teams heading in opposite directions, and the betting markets haven’t quite caught up yet.

When these two met back in Round 9, Jamie Elliott went absolutely bonkers with 6 goals – including three in time-on of the last quarter – to steal a 14-point win for an undermanned Pies outfit in Perth.

That game also saw Lachie Schultz knocked out cold and Nick Daicos held to just 18 touches by Corey Wagner’s tag. Fast forward to now: Collingwood just copped a heartbreaking 6-point loss to the Suns after going scoreless in the first half (0.8 – ouch), while Fremantle showed championship mettle by overrunning Hawthorn with a 4.4 to 0.2 final term blitz.

KRUZEY’S TIPS

After crunching these numbers, I’m seeing some serious value in backing the visitors here.

The Pies’ accuracy issues (8.15 last week) combined with Fremantle’s elite pressure game creates a perfect storm for an upset.

My confidence is high on the head-to-head play, but I’m also loving the unders given both teams’ defensive improvements.

BEST BET

Fremantle Head-to-Head

$3.40

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VALUE BET

Under 161.5 Total Points

$1.88

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SMART HEDGE

Fremantle +20.5

$1.90

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All odds from Unibet, correct at time of posting

KRUZEY MODEL VS MARKET

Look, I’ve been tracking these scoring patterns all season, and something doesn’t add up with the market’s assessment here. My model’s telling me this game’s closer than the bookies think, and there’s definite value on the Dockers.

Our Data Says: Collingwood 93, Fremantle 76 (based on season averages adjusted for recent form)

That gives Collingwood a 62.4% win chance, Fremantle 37.6%

Bookmakers have Collingwood at $1.32 (75.8% implied) vs Fremantle at $3.40 (29.4% implied)

The Market Edge: Fremantle offers significant value – our 37.6% vs market’s 29.4% implied chance represents an 8.2% edge

Bottom line: The market’s overreacting to the MCG factor and undervaluing Fremantle’s current form. At $3.40, the Dockers are a genuine value play.

Our Prediction

COL 93 | FRE 76

Win Probability

COL 62.4% | FRE 37.6%

Market Edge

8.2%

on Fremantle Dockers

FORM LINE

In my experience with this matchup, recent form tells you everything – and right now these teams are heading in opposite directions.

Collingwood’s won 4 of their last 5, which sounds impressive until you dig deeper. They’ve struggled for accuracy, managing just 63 points against Gold Coast with that shocking 8.15 scoreline.

Their other wins came against Carlton (good), West Coast (expected), St Kilda (solid), and Melbourne by a single point.

Fremantle? They’re absolutely flying with 4 wins from their last 5, and that lone loss came against the ladder-leading Swans in Sydney.

They’ve beaten Hawthorn, St Kilda, Essendon, and North Melbourne, showing they can win ugly (against the Hawks) or pretty (thumping Essendon 104-63).

That 103-tackle effort against Hawthorn? Season-high stuff that shows a team peaking at the right time.

Collingwood Magpies

WWWWL

Defeated Carlton
Defeated West Coast
Defeated St Kilda
Defeated Melbourne
Lost to Gold Coast

Fremantle Dockers

WWWWL

Defeated Hawthorn
Defeated St Kilda
Defeated Essendon
Defeated North Melbourne
Lost to Sydney

KEY STATS

After pouring over these season averages, the defensive numbers really caught my eye. Yes, Collingwood averages 13.4 goals per game at home versus Fremantle’s 12.2 on the road – but check out the efficiency stats.

The Dockers are running at 73.5% disposal efficiency compared to the Pies’ 72.5%, and they’re winning the contested possession battle 131.5 to 127.2.

Here’s what really matters for your bet though: Fremantle averages more clearances (37.5 to 36.2) and gets just as many inside 50s (53.1 to 52.8).

When you combine that with Collingwood’s recent accuracy woes and Fremantle’s elite pressure game, suddenly that 20.5-point start looks massive.

The Pies might control general play, but if they’re kicking 8.15 again, the Dockers only need to be close to pinch this.

GOALS PER GAME

COL
13.4

FRE
12.2

DISPOSAL EFFICIENCY %

FRE
73.5

COL
72.5

CONTESTED POSSESSION

FRE
131.5

COL
127.2

CLEARANCES

FRE
37.5

COL
36.2

INSIDE 50s

FRE
53.1

COL
52.8

SELECTION WATCH

Team selections yet to be announced – we’ll update our analysis once the lineups drop.

THE FINAL WORD

Look, I know backing against Collingwood at the MCG feels wrong, but the numbers don’t lie.

The Pies are struggling for accuracy, they’ve dropped one of their last three away games, and they’re facing a Fremantle side that’s found its mojo at exactly the right time.

My main play remains Fremantle head-to-head at $3.40 – that’s simply too much value to ignore when you’ve got a team winning 4 of 5, playing elite pressure footy, and getting an 8.2% edge over the market’s assessment.

Even if you can’t stomach the outright upset, take them with the 20.5 start. This one’s going down to the wire.

LOCK IT IN: Fremantle Head-to-Head @ $3.40

The Dockers are a live underdog with form and market edge on their side.

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