Brisbane vs Port Adelaide Prediction

Brisbane Set to Bounce Back Against Struggling Power

Home • $1.21

Away • $4.25

TBD • The Gabba • 15.9°C, clear skies, minimal wind

Can Brisbane rediscover their scoring touch after two losses in three games?

That’s the million-dollar question as they host a Port Adelaide side that’s leaked goals like a sieve in recent weeks. The Lions crushed Port by 79 points when they last met in Round 15, with Hipwood bagging five goals and the home side dominating with a +29 inside-50 advantage.

Port’s defence has been a disaster zone lately – they’ve conceded 23 goals in their third straight loss, despite Butters’ heroic 35-disposal effort.

With perfect conditions forecast at the Gabba (15.9 °C, clear skies, minimal wind), this shapes as the ideal opportunity for Brisbane to pile on the points against a vulnerable defence.

KRUZEY’S TIPS

After crunching these numbers, I’ve spotted some serious value in this matchup that the bookies might’ve missed.

Brisbane’s line looks too ambitious given their recent wobbles, while Port’s massive odds offer sneaky appeal for those willing to take a calculated risk.

The perfect weather conditions should see both teams move the ball freely, making the scoring markets particularly interesting.

BEST BET

LINE BETTING

Brisbane 1-39

$3.40

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VALUE BET

Port Adelaide +26.5

$1.88

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SMART HEDGE

First Quarter Over 48.5

$1.88

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All odds from Unibet, correct at time of posting

KRUZEY MODEL VS MARKET

Here’s where the data gets really interesting – our model suggests this game might be tighter than the bookies think. We’re predicting a solid Brisbane win, but not the blowout that the market’s expecting. The 21-point margin in our prediction creates some fascinating betting angles.

Our Data Says: Brisbane 87, Port Adelaide 66 (based on season averages adjusted for recent form)

That gives Brisbane a 56.9% win chance, Port Adelaide 43.1%

Bookmakers have Brisbane at $1.21 (82.6% implied) vs Port Adelaide at $4.25 (23.5% implied)

The Market Edge: Port Adelaide offers massive value – our 43.1% chance vs market’s 23.5% implied probability suggests the Power are being seriously underrated

Our Prediction

BRI 87 | PTA 66

Win Probability

BRI 56.9% | PTA 43.1%

Market Edge

19.6%

on Port Adelaide

FORM LINE

Looking at the recent results, we’re seeing two teams heading in opposite directions.

Brisbane’s last five games show a mixed bag – three wins (Geelong 92-51, Essendon 90-72, Hawthorn 93-60) and two losses (GWS 96-107, Adelaide 63-68).

They’re averaging 86.8 points across this stretch, which is actually below their season average. Port Adelaide’s form is more concerning with three wins (Carlton 110-60, Melbourne 93-68, GWS 66-50) and two losses (Sydney 52-71, Fremantle 51-100).

The Power’s defensive woes are glaring – they’ve conceded an average of 69.8 points in their last five, well above their season average.

Brisbane Lions

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three wins (Geelong 92-51, Essendon 90-72, Hawthorn 93-60) and two losses (GWS 96-107, Adelaide 63-68). They’re averaging 86.8 points across this stretch, which is actually below their season average.

Port Adelaide Power

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three wins (Carlton 110-60, Melbourne 93-68, GWS 66-50) and two losses (Sydney 52-71, Fremantle 51-100). The Power’s defensive woes are glaring – they’ve conceded an average of 69.8 points in their last five, well above their season average.

KEY STATS

The season averages paint a clear picture of Brisbane’s superiority, but not by the margin the bookies suggest.

Brisbane averages 12.7 goals per game to Port’s 11, while dominating the inside-50 count 56.3 to 51.1.

The Lions also hold significant advantages in clearances (41.4 vs 37.6) and contested possessions (133.1 vs 122.3).

Interestingly, both teams have almost identical disposal efficiency – Brisbane at 72.5% and Port at 72%.

These numbers suggest Brisbane should control the territory battle, but Port’s ability to score from limited opportunities keeps them dangerous.

GOALS PER GAME

Brisbane
12.7

Port
11

INSIDE-50S

Brisbane
56.3

Port
51.1

CLEARANCES

Brisbane
41.4

Port
37.6

CONTESTED POSSESSIONS

Brisbane
133.1

Port
122.3

DISPOSAL EFFICIENCY

Brisbane
72.5%

Port
72%

SELECTION WATCH

Team selections yet to be announced – we’ll update our analysis once the lineups drop.

THE FINAL WORD

This shapes as the perfect storm for Brisbane to make a statement, but at $1.21 they’re too short for my liking.

Port Adelaide’s defensive issues are real, but they’ve shown they can score quickly when given space. In perfect conditions at the Gabba, I’m expecting points aplenty.

My best bet remains Brisbane to win by 1-39 points at $3.40 – it captures the Lions’ superiority while respecting Port’s ability to stay competitive. Don’t be surprised if this one’s closer than most expect.

LOCK IT IN: Brisbane 1-39 @ $3.40

It captures the Lions’ superiority while respecting Port’s ability to stay competitive.

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