Brisbane vs Geelong Prediction

This is a classic case of market misjudgment. While the bookies are backing the Lions pretty heavily, our model sees this as a true 50/50 game, giving Geelong a far better chance than the market does.

If the Cats really have a 50.1% chance of winning, their true odds should be right around $2.00, not the generous $2.70 on offer. That’s a huge edge and a standout value play.

What to do?

The edge is clearly with the Cats. The bookies are undervaluing them big time, and if our numbers are on the money, Geelong at $2.70 is one of the best value bets of the round.

The Lions have always been great at holding the Cats back from kicking too many goals at the Gabba so we should expect a lower score this round.

Keeping it close, the Cats should win this week with a 1-39 margin, line bet is not recommended.

Head-to-Head Stats

• Average Points For Per Match: Brisbane: 90.0, Geelong: 119.0 – (Geelong by 29 points)
• Average Points Against Per Match: Brisbane: 78.5, Geelong: 83.5 – (Brisbane by 5 points)
• Average Winning Margin: Brisbane: 11.5, Geelong: 78.0 – (Geelong by 66.5 points)
• Average Losing Margin: Brisbane: N/A, Geelong: 7.0 – (Geelong more resilient)
• HT/FT Double %: Brisbane: 0.0%, Geelong: 50.0% – (Geelong by 50%)
• Highest Score For: Brisbane: 94, Geelong: 147 – (Geelong by 53 points)
• Highest Score Against: Brisbane: 82, Geelong: 98 – (Brisbane better by 16 points)
• Biggest Win: Brisbane: 19, Geelong: 78 – (Geelong by 59 points)
• Biggest Loss: Brisbane: N/A, Geelong: 7 – (Geelong more resilient)
• Highest Total Match Score: Brisbane: 169, Geelong: 216 – (Geelong by 47 points)
• Lowest Total Match Score: Brisbane: 168, Geelong: 189 – (Brisbane by 21 points)
• Goal Accuracy For %: Brisbane: 54.2%, Geelong: 66.7% – (Geelong by 12.5%)
• Goal Accuracy Against %: Brisbane: 60.5%, Geelong: 69.4% – (Brisbane by 8.9%)
• Current Streak: Brisbane: W2, Geelong: L1 – (Brisbane momentum)
• Current Form: Brisbane: WW, Geelong: WL – (Brisbane edge)
• Choke % (Loss % After Leading HT): Brisbane: 0.0%, Geelong: 0.0% – (Even)
• Reliability % (Win % After Leading HT): Brisbane: 0.0%, Geelong: 100.0% – (Geelong by 100%)
• Comeback % (Win % After Trailing HT): Brisbane: 100.0%, Geelong: 0.0% – (Brisbane by 100%)
• Last Encounter Winner and Margin: Brisbane won by 10 points (95–85) on 21st September 2024