Brisbane vs Collingwood Prediction & Betting Analysis Round 6

Brisbane Lions vs Collingwood Magpies Predictions

Game 1 of Round 6 of the 2025 Toyota AFL Premiership predictions sees Brisbane vs Collingwood on April 17 at the Gabba on Thursday night. You can catch the game live on Kayo, Foxtel, & Channel 7. 🏉🔥

Thursday, April 17, 2025

7:30 pm AEDT @ The Gabba, Brisbane

Final Score Prediction

Brisbane

81 : 69

Collingwood

Win Percentages

Brisbane 56.18%

Collingwood 43.82%

Brisbane

Collingwood

Quick Insight

At the time of writing Ladbrokes had the head to head for Brisbane Lions set at $1.48, and $2.65 for the Collingwood Magpies, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:

Lions 64.16%
Magpies 35.84%

Opportunity Bet

Both sides are in decent nick coming into this one, but Brisbane’s hot streak has clearly caught the bookies’ attention. That said, when we crunch the numbers, there’s a bit more value floating around than you might expect.

The Lions are on a roll and the bookies are all over it, giving them over a 64% chance of getting the job done. But our model puts them slightly lower at 56.18%, which means they might be a touch overrated in the market.

That creates a bit of an opportunity with the Magpies. We reckon they’ve got a solid 43.82% chance, while the bookies have them at just 35.84%. That’s a fairly decent edge, enough to give value backers something to think about.

According to our numbers, Collingwood’s true odds should be closer to $2.28, but they’re currently priced at $2.65. That gives us some value on the Pies, especially if you’re not sold on the Lions keeping up their flawless streak.

The Lions are in red-hot form, no doubt, but our numbers say this game should be closer than the odds suggest. That gives us a clear edge on Collingwood, both at the head-to-head and with the line at +11.5.

It might be a tight one, and if the Magpies can hold their own, that $2.65 could be a nice little bit of value. Worth a look if you’re after an underdog with upside!

Power Rankings Snapshot:

Metric	Brisbane	Collingwood
Overall Power Ranking	5	15
Balanced Power Score	17	8
Points For Rank (Home/Away)	13	13
Points Conceded Rank	4	8
Win % Rank (Home/Away)	1	7
Total Power Rank Score	8.67	11.00

What to do?

Collingwood are tipped to keep this match close, unfortunately not quite close enough to grab the +11.5 line bet, the OVER/UNDER on the other hand is stacked way up at 174.5 suggesting they will both be looking to score 87 points each, a big ask when Collingwood’s average away points is currently 64 ( and we don’t expect Brisbane to be getting the extra 110-ish points).

A Brisbane 40+ winning margin is highly unlikely, best to steer clear, play it smart and take the UNDER.

Suggested Betting Tip:

UNDER 174.5 @ $1.88 with
Ladbrokes

H-2-H Bet:

Brisbane @ $1.48 with
Ladbrokes

Line Bet:

Brisbane -11.5 @ $1.90 with
Ladbrokes

Winning Margin Bet:

Brisbane 1-39 @ $2.15 with
Ladbrokes

Brisbane vs Collingwood SGM

Head-to-Head Stats

Average Points For Per Match: Brisbane: 97.2, Collingwood: 87.2 – (Brisbane by 10 points)
Average Points Against Per Match: Brisbane: 81.0, Collingwood: 68.6 – (Collingwood by 12.4 points)
Average Winning Margin: Brisbane: 16.2, Collingwood: 36.3 – (Collingwood by 20.1 points)
Average Losing Margin: Brisbane: N/A, Collingwood: 52.0 – (Brisbane more resilient)
HT/FT Double %: Brisbane: 20.0%, Collingwood: 40.0% – (Collingwood by 20%)
Highest Score For: Brisbane: 118, Collingwood: 136 – (Collingwood by 18 points)
Highest Score Against: Brisbane: 97, Collingwood: 104 – (Brisbane by 7 points)
Biggest Win: Brisbane: 28, Collingwood: 91 – (Collingwood by 63 points)
Biggest Loss: Brisbane: N/A, Collingwood: 52 – (Brisbane more resilient)
Highest Total Match Score: Brisbane: 215, Collingwood: 187 – (Brisbane by 28 points)
Lowest Total Match Score: Brisbane: 131, Collingwood: 109 – (Brisbane by 22 points)
Goal Accuracy For %: Brisbane: 61.5%, Collingwood: 50.0% – (Brisbane by 11.5%)
Goal Accuracy Against %: Brisbane: 59.0%, Collingwood: 53.8% – (Collingwood by 5.2%)
Current Streak: Brisbane: W5, Collingwood: W4 – (Brisbane edge)
Current Form: Brisbane: WWWWW, Collingwood: LWWWW – (Brisbane edge)
Choke % (Loss % After Leading At HT): Brisbane: 0.0%, Collingwood: 0.0% – (Even)
Reliability % (Win % After Leading At HT): Brisbane: 100.0%, Collingwood: 100.0% – (Even)
Comeback % (Win % After Trailing At HT): Brisbane: 100.0%, Collingwood: 66.7% – (Brisbane by 33.3%)
Last Encounter Winner and Margin: Collingwood won by 1 point (79-78) on 17th August 2024