Melbourne vs Carlton Prediction
Carlton are favourite and I’m not going to argue with…
Western Bulldogs vs North Melbourne Prediction
A five week losing run for North Melbourne runs into a Western Bulldogs side that needs the four points to stay in the top six race. I have got the Dogs to cover, and I have got the total staying under with them.
AFL Round 22 • 2026
Model Predicted Final Score
WBD
$1.33
Thursday, August 6 • 7:30pm AEST
86 : 64
Marvel Stadium
NME
$3.37
Western Bulldogs by 22 points
Model Predicted Margin
Western Bulldogs by 22
Current Market
Western Bulldogs -20.5
1.5 pts edge
Our Bets This Game
H2HWestern Bulldogs
$1.33
LINEWestern Bulldogs -20.5
$1.90
TOTALUnder 171.5 points
$1.88
MULTIWestern Bulldogs Win, Under 171.5 points & Luke Davies-Uniacke 25+ Disposals
$4.05
Claim Tips at Unibet - Offer unibet
Odds correct at time of posting
North Melbourne Have Not Passed 85 In Five Weeks And The Western Bulldogs Have Cracked 90 Once In The Same Stretch. That Is Why I Am Giving Up The Points And Backing The Total To Stay Low With It.
North Melbourne have been beaten in each of their last five, and the Bulldogs are three from three in their last three meetings with them. So the winner is not the question tonight, the margin and the scoreboard are.
The Attack That Kicked Five Goals Gets Two Back
Aaron Naughton and Cody Weightman were both managed for the loss to Fremantle, and without them the Dogs booted five goals for the night, one of those after the main break. The line is priced off that, and that is not the forward line running out here. So take the obvious shot at me: if the Dogs kick more than five goals, how does the total still stay under. Because better than five goals is a long way short of a shootout. This has been the 14th ranked scoring side in the competition all year, and getting two forwards back does not turn it into a 130 point attack overnight. I need them better than last week, not double it.
North Have Been Beaten, Not Belted
Three of those five defeats were by less than three goals, so this is a side that hangs around rather than folds. George Wardlaw is named, back in the midfield after the hamstring that kept him out since round 17, and that is a real reason this stays closer than the head to head suggests. I make the margin 22 against a line of 20.5. A point and a half is one shot after the siren, so I am not selling you an edge you can bank on.
About That 134 To 85
The last meeting at this ground finished 134 to 85, and I am not going to sit here and pretend a 219 point game helps a bet on the under. It is the outlier and it is the reason the price is what it is. Neither of these sides is scoring like that now. North have not passed 85 in five weeks and the Dogs have only cracked 90 once in the same stretch. Two attacks that cold do not get to 172 between them, even with the Bulldogs’ forwards back in, which is why I want the under 171.5 at $1.88.
Western Bulldogs vs North Melbourne Tip
I’m on Western Bulldogs by about 22 points against a line of 20.5. That is a point and a half, so understand what you are taking here: the right side, not a gift.
Western Bulldogs vs North Melbourne Key Stats
ONE PERCENTERS
WBD50
NME38
Spoils and smothers are how the Bulldogs turn North’s forward entries straight back the other way. Against a side already short of a score, that is how a win turns into a covered line.
CENTRE CLEARANCES
WBD13
NME12
First use out of the middle keeps the ball going one way and starves the other end. That is how a game still close at half time gets put away by three quarter time.
MARKS INSIDE 50
WBD11
NME14
This one is against me. North hold marks inside 50 better than the Bulldogs do, and while their forwards are taking those grabs they keep the margin alive and the scoreboard ticking. Cutting off that supply is the Bulldogs’ job, and if they cannot, both my bets go down together.
Western Bulldogs vs North Melbourne Form Guide
Western Bulldogs
LWWWL
- R21: L 41-78 vs Fremantle
- R20: W 105-48 vs Richmond
- R19: W 77-68 vs Gold Coast Suns
- R18: W 86-70 vs West Coast Eagles
- R17: L 55-90 vs Sydney Swans
North Melbourne Kangaroos
LLLLL
- R21: L 83-99 vs Hawthorn
- R20: L 62-93 vs St Kilda
- R19: L 76-92 vs Melbourne
- R18: L 85-89 vs Collingwood
- R17: L 52-73 vs Port Adelaide
Michael’s Verdict
I will give up the 20.5 with Western Bulldogs and take the total staying low alongside it. The honest risk is that North hang around rather than fold, and Wardlaw back through the middle helps that, so it could get tight late. A point and a half is not much to work with, so the line at $1.90 stands as its own play and no more. The one I want most is the $4.05 multi: the win, the under and Davies-Uniacke’s 25 disposals on the one ticket.
Our Bets
H2H Western Bulldogs$1.33
LINE Western Bulldogs -20.5$1.90
TOTAL Under 171.5 points$1.88
MULTI Western Bulldogs Win, Under 171.5 points & Luke Davies-Uniacke 25+ Disposals$4.05
Player Prop Predictions
Bailey Williams 25 or more disposals, $3.18. The 29 and the 26 back to back show what he does when the footy comes his way, and 25 has landed in two of his last four. At $3.18 you are getting overs on a bloke who has already sailed past this twice recently.
Luke Davies-Uniacke 25 or more disposals, $1.62. Twenty five has landed in four of his last seven and he has not dropped under 17 in that time. He is the most dependable leg on this board, and at $1.62 you are paying for that reliability rather than getting a bargain.
Ed Richards to kick a goal, $1.85. A goal in four of his last seven, including a double two games back, and if the Dogs get up by around 22 the footy lives in his half of the ground. $1.85 for someone hitting the scoreboard that regularly is worth the ticket.
Harry Sheezel to kick a goal, $1.93. Two goals last start and that makes it a goal in four of his last seven, with the numbers climbing rather than tailing off. He is getting closer to the sticks each week, so I am happy to be on at $1.93.
The Props I Like
PROP Bailey Williams 25+ Disposals$3.18
PROP Luke Davies-Uniacke 25+ Disposals$1.62
PROP Ed Richards Anytime Goal$1.85
PROP Harry Sheezel Anytime Goal$1.93
Player Props MultiLuke Davies-Uniacke 25+ Disposals, Ed Richards Anytime Goal & Harry Sheezel Anytime Goal, my price $5.78
These prop odds are Sportsbet’s, correct at time of posting. Prices move, so check before you bet and take the best one going. Late team changes can knock out any leg.
Up Next in the AFL
Key Facts
| Match | Western Bulldogs vs North Melbourne Kangaroos |
| Date | Thursday, August 6 |
| Kick-off | 7:30pm AEST |
| Venue | Marvel Stadium |
| Round | AFL Round 22 |
| Status | Scheduled |
| Our Tip | Multi: Western Bulldogs Win, Under 171.5 points & Luke Davies-Uniacke 25+ Disposals @ $4.05 |
| Predicted Score | Western Bulldogs 86 – North Melbourne Kangaroos 64 |
Western Bulldogs vs North Melbourne Kangaroos FAQs
Who will win Western Bulldogs vs North Melbourne?
I am tipping Western Bulldogs by about 22 points. They are three from three in their last three meetings with North Melbourne, and North have been beaten in each of their last five.
What is the best bet for Western Bulldogs vs North Melbourne in Round 22?
My headline multi at $4.05 takes the straight win with the total and a player prop, Luke Davies-Uniacke 25+ Disposals. The win leg anchors it this week; the line bet on the card still stands as its own play.
Where is the Western Bulldogs vs North Melbourne Round 22 match being played?
Marvel Stadium in Docklands, Melbourne. The bounce is 7.30pm AEST on Thursday, August 6.
Who is Western Bulldogs playing next week?
Western Bulldogs play Carlton - at Marvel Stadium on Sunday 16 August in AFL Round 23.
Who is North Melbourne Kangaroos playing next week?
North Melbourne play Geelong - at Marvel Stadium on Saturday 15 August in AFL Round 23.
