Sydney vs Port Adelaide Prediction

AFL Round 22 • 2026

Model Predicted Final Score

SYD

$1.13

Saturday, August 8 • 4:15pm AEST

114 : 77

Sydney Cricket Ground

PTA

$6.05

Sydney Swans by 37 points

Model Predicted Margin

Sydney Swans by 37

Current Market

Sydney Swans -37.5

0.5 pts tighter

Our Bets This Game

H2HSydney Swans

$1.13

LINEPort Adelaide Power +37.5

$1.90

TOTALOver 177.5 points

$1.89

MULTISydney Swans Win, Over 177.5 points & Nick Blakey 25+ Disposals

$3.44

Claim Tips at Unibet - Offer unibet

Odds correct at time of posting

Sydney Should Win This And Win It Well. Handing Port Adelaide 37.5 Points Is Still Too Many.

James Rowbottom is out injured and Dane Rampe has been managed. Sydney still win this, I have no argument there. But a 38 point beating is something you have to manufacture, and it is harder to manufacture when you are not quite at full strength.

The last four have all come in under

Sydney are the better side and I am not pretending otherwise. But the last four meetings between these two went three points, nineteen, eight the other way, and thirty six. Four goes at it and not one of them got to 38. Port Adelaide have a habit of hanging around in this fixture even when the ladder says they have no business doing it.

What the two outs actually change

The two Sydney are without are not the difference between winning and losing. They are the difference between winning by five goals and winning by seven, and that is the entire bet on this page.

Sydney own the territory, Port Adelaide hang onto the ball

Sydney get it inside 50 more often than Port Adelaide do and that is why they are $1.13. Port Adelaide hold the football and slow the game up when they have it. I am not going to oversell that. Port Adelaide have already copped fifty nine inside this losing run, so ball control did not save them that day. Against Sydney it has been enough.

Why the over rides with it

The over and the handicap want the same thing from Port Adelaide: keep kicking. They have got to seventy or better in three of their last five. Do that again and the total takes care of itself, because Sydney will post plenty on their own. The version of this game where Port Adelaide go quiet is the version where both legs go down.

Sydney vs Port Adelaide Tip

Port Adelaide +37.5 at $1.90. I make the margin thirty seven, so there is half a point in it. This is line ball, and I am staking it like one.

Sydney vs Port Adelaide Key Stats

Sydney vs Port Adelaide Form Guide

Player Prop Predictions

Tom McCartin 20 or more disposals, $1.62. He landed on 20 last start, which is exactly what this market asks for, and the 26 sitting two games back tells you the ceiling is well clear of the line. Twenty or more in 3 of his last 6.

Dante Visentini to kick a goal, $2.18. He kicked 2 in back to back games earlier in this run, so a single major is well inside him. Blank last start dulls the price a touch, but a goal in 3 of his last 6 at $2.18 is worth the ticket.

Nick Blakey 25 or more disposals, $1.61. He’s cleared 25 in four of his last seven.

Jason Horne-Francis 25 or more disposals, $2.72. 29 last start off the back of 30 the game before, so he is right in the thick of it. Over 25 in 4 of his last 7 and nothing under 23 since the 16 that opened that stretch, which makes $2.72 the best value on the page.

Chad Warner 25 or more disposals, $1.79. 25 last start ticks it over and he ripped 32 the game before that, so the big one is never far away. His worst read in seven games is 21, and he has cleared 25 in 4 of them.

These prop odds are Sportsbet’s, correct at time of posting. Prices move, so check before you bet and take the best one going. Late team changes can knock out any leg.

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