Sydney vs Fremantle Prediction

AFL Preliminary Final • 2026

Model Predicted Final Score

SYD

$2.43

Friday, September 18 • 7:40pm AEST

94 : 78

Sydney Cricket Ground

FRE

$1.56

Sydney Swans by 16 points

Model Predicted Margin

Sydney Swans by 16

Current Market

Fremantle Dockers -10.5

26.5 pts to Swans

Our Bets This Game

H2HSydney Swans

$2.43

LINESydney Swans +10.5

$1.90

TOTALUnder 190.5 points

$1.90

MULTISydney Swans +10.5, Under 190.5 points & Tom Papley 2+ Goals

$6.35

Claim tips at Picklebet - Offer picklebet

Odds correct at time of posting

Fremantle are favourites at the SCG and I can see why. I still have Sydney in front, and the line is the bet that survives a tight Fremantle win.

I understand the price and I still think it is wrong. Sydney are without five players the club banned for the rest of the season, Callum Mills went down in the qualifying final, and the market has looked at that and made a home side in a final $2.43. What it has not looked at hard enough is the qualifying final itself, and that is why I make it Sydney by 16 rather than Fremantle by ten and a half.

The market is pricing the missing players, not the side that turned up

The 141 on Brisbane was the club’s highest score in a VFL/AFL final, and it came with the banned players already out. That was not a depleted side hanging on, it was a pressure game played at full tilt, and it stretched the winning run to six. I am backing the team that beat Brisbane by 53, not the names on the list. And no, 141 does not make this a shootout. Fremantle are not Brisbane. They mark it, hold it and pick their entries, and a side that was held to 40 by Hawthorn in its own qualifying final is not one I expect to trade goals with anyone. I make it 94 to 78, which is 172 all up, and three of the last four meetings between these two finished under 190.

Fremantle have earned the favouritism, and the week is why I am against it

The minor premiers were held to 40 by Hawthorn in their qualifying final and answered it by outscoring Geelong in a proper final, so the straight sets talk is dead. They beat Sydney by 38 in Round 18 and have won two of their past three at the SCG, so nothing about this ground scares them. What has changed is the week: Fremantle back up off a semi final and cross the country, while Sydney have had a fortnight to get ready at home. In a final between two sides this close, that is worth a lot more than the market is giving it.

McInerney for Mills is the swap, and the talls are the real question

Justin McInerney returns for his first game since Round 13 as the likely replacement for Mills, and how much run he gives after three months out is the variable in the midfield. The bigger question is the back half against Fremantle’s three talls, which is why Lewis Melican comes in, and why the marks bar is the one column on this page that goes Fremantle’s way. If the Dockers get to mark it inside 50 without a contest, the under is in trouble before the line is.

Where I want the money

Sydney plus 10.5 at $1.90 is the bet, because it collects on a Swans win and on a Fremantle win by ten or less, and I have Sydney in front by about three goals. The under at $1.90 stands up on its own too: Fremantle play to keep the ball, and a preliminary final with this much on it is not the night either side opens up. Sydney at $2.43 to win outright is the bigger price and I think it is value, but it is the bet I have the least on, because being right about the side and wrong by a kick is exactly how a final like this goes.

Sydney vs Fremantle Tip

Sydney by 16, 94 to 78, and with the players they are missing the bet I trust is Sydney plus 10.5 at $1.90, because it still pays if Fremantle win by ten or less.

Sydney vs Fremantle Key Stats

Sydney vs Fremantle Form Guide

Player Prop Predictions

Hayden McLean to kick a goal, $1.26. Hayden McLean kicked three last start and has a goal in two of his last four. Sydney tipped to win by 16 means plenty of forward entries, and $1.26 reads about right.

Errol Gulden to kick a goal, $2.50. Errol Gulden has a goal in three of his last six, including one last start. Sydney are tipped to score 94 and he only needs one, so $2.50 is worth a go.

Sam Switkowski to kick a goal, $2.10. Sam Switkowski has alternated a goal and a blank across his last six, and the blank came last start. Fremantle are tipped for just 78 so scoring will be tight, but one goal is all he needs and $2.10 is fair for a man who lands it every second game.

Tom Papley two or more goals, $1.76. Tom Papley bagged five last start and has hit two or more in three of his last six. With Sydney tipped to win by 16 he is the goalkicker I want anchoring the multi, and $1.76 is a steady leg.

Hayden Young 20 or more disposals, $1.83. Hayden Young went 23 last start and has posted 23 in three of his last six, so when he gets going he clears 20 plus with room to spare. Two of the three misses were 18 and 19, so he is rarely far off, and $1.83 for 20 or more is fair.

These prop odds are Sportsbet’s, correct at time of posting. Prices move, so check before you bet and take the best one going. Late team changes can knock out any leg.