Fremantle vs Brisbane Grand Final Prediction
Brisbane by four. That is my number for the Grand…
St Kilda vs Port Adelaide Prediction
St Kilda and Port Adelaide is the closest game of the round on my numbers, and we get it at Marvel this afternoon. Two sides in form, both happy to open the game up, not much between them on paper.
AFL Round 18 • 2026
Model Predicted Final Score
STK
$1.59
Saturday, July 11 • 1:15 pm
89 : 82
Marvel Stadium
PTA
$2.38
St Kilda Saints by 7 points
Model Predicted Margin
St Kilda Saints by 7
Current Market
St Kilda Saints -7.5
0.5 pts tighter
Our Bets This Game
H2HSt Kilda Saints
$1.59
LINEPort Adelaide Power +8.5
$1.91
TOTALOver 168.5 points
$1.91
MULTISaints Win, Power +8.5 & Over 168.5
$5.80
Claim Tips at Unibet - Offer unibet
Odds correct at time of posting
I’ve got St Kilda winning a tight one at Marvel, seven points my number. With the line out at 8.5, Port Adelaide with the points is where the value sits.
The line has drifted to 8.5 while I make it seven, and that gap is the bet. The market is respecting Port after a strong month, so they have been pushed up to more than a get-out chance. I think that is an overcorrection on a day the Saints control, which is why Port with the points is where I’m playing.
St Kilda’s run is the difference
The Saints move the ball better than anyone in this matchup, handball and run tearing through the middle in a way Port struggle to match. That is how you win a tight one at Marvel, a ground St Kilda know how to control, and they come in off a big win over Essendon. They have also taken the last two meetings between these teams.
Port aren’t here to make up the numbers
Port have been playing better than the market gave them credit for, with a 26 point win over Adelaide and another over North Melbourne inside the last month. That form is why the line has drifted out. A team going like this with a start that big is where the value is, and even in a loss they should stay inside it.
The points should climb
Two sides that like to attack and shift it quickly, and nothing in the conditions to drag this into a scrap. Both can pile them on in a hurry once they get going. In an even game that stays open, the total gets there.
St Kilda vs Port Adelaide Tip
I’ve got St Kilda to beat Port Adelaide by 7 at Marvel today, their cleaner ball use the difference in a tight one.
St Kilda vs Port Adelaide Key Stats
HANDBALLS
STK160
PTA124
St Kilda average 159.8 handballs a game to Port’s 123.8, and that carry through the middle is how they control a tight one.
GOALS
STK13
PTA11
St Kilda average 13.1 goals a game to Port’s 11.4, so the scoreboard pressure and the points for the over sit with the Saints.
HIT-OUTS
STK32
PTA39
Port win the hit-outs 39 to 31.5, so they get first use at the stoppage and can stay inside the line even when the result goes against them.
St Kilda vs Port Adelaide Form Guide
St Kilda Saints
WLWLL
- W 117-50 vs Essendon
- L 61-83 vs Western Bulldogs
- W 96-88 vs GWS Giants
- L 102-104 vs Sydney Swans
- L 67-119 vs Hawthorn
Port Adelaide Power
WWLLW
- W 73-52 vs North Melbourne
- W 97-71 vs Adelaide Crows
- L 52-78 vs Collingwood
- L 90-93 vs Sydney Swans
- W 77-71 vs West Coast Eagles
Michael’s Verdict
So I want the Saints to win it and Port to hang inside the line. The one risk is Port simply playing well enough to nick it outright, which sinks the winner. Give me St Kilda to win and the Power with the points, and let the scoreboard do the rest.
Our Bets
H2H St Kilda Saints$1.59
LINE Port Adelaide Power +8.5$1.91
TOTAL Over 168.5 points$1.91
MULTI Saints Win, Power +8.5 & Over 168.5$5.80
Key Facts
| Match | St Kilda Saints vs Port Adelaide Power |
| Date | Saturday, July 11 |
| Kick-off | 1:15 pm AEST |
| Venue | Marvel Stadium |
| Round | AFL Round 18 |
| Status | Scheduled |
| Our Tip | St Kilda Multi: Saints H2H + Port Adelaide +8.5 + Over 168.5 @ $5.80 |
| Predicted Score | St Kilda Saints 89 – Port Adelaide Power 82 |
St Kilda Saints vs Port Adelaide Power FAQs
Who will win St Kilda vs Port Adelaide?
I’m tipping St Kilda to win by around 7 points at Marvel Stadium. Their cleaner ball use and run through the middle is the difference, and they have taken the last two meetings between these teams.
What is the best bet for St Kilda vs Port Adelaide in Round 18?
St Kilda at $1.59 to win is the anchor, but with my margin at 7 and the line at 8.5, Port Adelaide at plus 8.5 for $1.91 is where the value sits on the line.
Where is the St Kilda vs Port Adelaide Round 18 match being played?
The match is at Marvel Stadium in Melbourne, with a 1:15pm bounce on Saturday 11 July 2026.
