Melbourne vs Carlton Prediction
Carlton are favourite and I’m not going to argue with…
St Kilda vs Carlton Prediction
Teams are out and nothing in them changes my mind. Carlton are favourites off two straight wins and St Kilda are paying over two dollars at home, and I cannot see the class gap the price is charging me for. I am on the Saints on Sunday night.
AFL Round 22 • 2026
Model Predicted Final Score
STK
$2.18
Sunday, August 9 • 7:20pm AEST
83 : 75
Marvel Stadium
CAR
$1.69
St Kilda Saints by 8 points
Model Predicted Margin
St Kilda Saints by 8
Current Market
Carlton Blues -5.5
13.5 pts to Saints
Our Bets This Game
H2HSt Kilda Saints
$2.18
LINESt Kilda Saints +5.5
$1.90
TOTALUnder 174.5 points
$1.86
MULTISt Kilda Saints +5.5, Under 174.5 points & Adam Cerra 20+ Disposals
$4.70
Claim Tips at Unibet - Offer unibet
Odds correct at time of posting
Carlton Put 154 on Brisbane Last Start and Are Still Only Tenth. Three Weeks Before That They Kicked 39 Against Hawthorn, and I Am Not Paying $1.69 to Find Out Which Side Turns Up.
Carlton are $1.69 and I cannot find the reason for it. One spot on the ladder between them, and the Saints are the ones playing at home.
The Teams Are Out and the Tip Survives Them
St Kilda have named Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera through the injury cloud that hung over him all week. He did not train, so what he gives them is the variable here, but he is out there. Cooper Sharman comes back in. Carlton named unchanged, so what you saw against Brisbane is what you get.
No late surprises either way. At $2.18 I am happy to take the Saints exactly as named.
Carlton’s Form Line Cuts Both Ways
Carlton put 154 on Brisbane last start and that is a frightening number to bet against. But three weeks before it they kicked 39 against Hawthorn. Same side, three weeks apart, and I am not paying $1.69 to find out which version rocks up at Marvel.
The Round 8 Result Is Not My Argument
These two met in Round 8 and St Kilda won it by 39 points. Carlton have improved since and that result does not decide this one, the same way belting Brisbane does not. One result is one result, whoever it flatters.
What it does tell me is how far the market has moved on this fixture in half a season. I do not think the football has moved with it.
Sunday Night at Marvel Is Not a Shootout
Two mid table sides under a roof on a Sunday night is a grind. The 174.5 needs both of them wanting the game played end to end, and I only see one of them playing that way. St Kilda want it slow and they are set up to keep it slow. I want the under.
St Kilda vs Carlton Tip
I am on St Kilda at $2.18. If you want the safety net it is the same opinion with a cushion, the plus 5.5 at $1.90. I make it an eight point win to the Saints. The under 174.5 at $1.86 is the second play.
St Kilda vs Carlton Key Stats
CENTRE CLEARANCES
STK14
CAR13
First use out of the middle decides whether a game gets played fast or slow, and St Kilda are the ones making that choice. Under a roof at night that is worth more than it looks.
MARKS INSIDE 50
STK13
CAR12
The Saints hit a target going forward instead of bombing it into a pack, so their entries become shots at goal rather than the ball coming straight back the other way.
UNCONTESTED POSSESSIONS
STK250
CAR242
Both of these sides like the ball in hand with time to use it, and St Kilda are the better of them at it. That is a control game, not an end to end one, and it is the same reason I want the under.
St Kilda vs Carlton Form Guide
St Kilda Saints
LWLWW
- R21: L 88-107 vs Sydney Swans
- R20: W 93-62 vs North Melbourne
- R19: L 75-102 vs Geelong Cats
- R18: W 87-73 vs Port Adelaide
- R17: W 117-50 vs Essendon
Carlton Blues
WWLLW
- R21: W 154-78 vs Brisbane Lions
- R20: W 110-97 vs Gold Coast Suns
- R19: L 69-90 vs Collingwood
- R18: L 39-103 vs Hawthorn
- R17: W 74-72 vs Richmond
Michael’s Verdict
St Kilda win this. Carlton belted Brisbane last start and if that side turns up I am wrong, but the same team kicked 39 against Hawthorn three weeks earlier, and $1.69 is no price for that kind of week to week swing. Give me the Saints and the under with them.
Our Bets
H2H St Kilda Saints$2.18
LINE St Kilda Saints +5.5$1.90
TOTAL Under 174.5 points$1.86
MULTI St Kilda Saints +5.5, Under 174.5 points & Adam Cerra 20+ Disposals$4.70
Player Prop Predictions
Campbell Lake to kick a goal, $2.50. Two goals last start is the best he has looked all run, and at $2.50 you are getting overs on a bloke who has hit the scoreboard in three of his last six. St Kilda winning by my eight points means plenty of ball inside fifty for him.
Rowan Marshall to kick a goal, $1.50. Blank last start, but he has snagged a goal in three of his last six including a pair twice, so the scoring is there. $1.50 is short and it should be.
Max Hall to kick a goal, $1.80. Three goals last start, his biggest haul of the lot, and that is four of his last seven with a major next to his name. In a St Kilda win I want him on my ticket at $1.80.
Adam Cerra 20 or more disposals, $1.33. Twenty one disposals last start and 20 or more in four of his last seven, so the ball keeps finding him. Steady is exactly what an anchor leg needs and $1.33 says the same thing.
The Props I Like
PROP Campbell Lake Anytime Goal$2.50
PROP Rowan Marshall Anytime Goal$1.50
PROP Max Hall Anytime Goal$1.80
PROP Adam Cerra 20+ Disposals$1.33
Player Props MultiAdam Cerra 20+ Disposals, Max Hall Anytime Goal & Rowan Marshall Anytime Goal, my price $3.59
These prop odds are Sportsbet’s, correct at time of posting. Prices move, so check before you bet and take the best one going. Late team changes can knock out any leg.
Up Next in the AFL
Key Facts
| Match | St Kilda Saints vs Carlton Blues |
| Date | Sunday, August 9 |
| Kick-off | 7:20pm AEST |
| Venue | Marvel Stadium |
| Round | AFL Round 22 |
| Status | Scheduled |
| Our Tip | Multi: St Kilda Saints +5.5, Under 174.5 points & Adam Cerra 20+ Disposals @ $4.70 |
| Predicted Score | St Kilda Saints 83 – Carlton Blues 75 |
St Kilda Saints vs Carlton Blues FAQs
Who will win St Kilda vs Carlton?
St Kilda. Carlton come in off two wins, but there is only one spot on the ladder between these two and the Saints won the Round 8 meeting by 39 points, so $2.18 at home is the play.
What is the best bet for St Kilda vs Carlton in Round 22?
My headline multi at $4.70 rolls the line and total in with a player prop, Adam Cerra 20+ Disposals. On its own, St Kilda Saints +5.5 at $1.90 is the anchor.
Where is the St Kilda vs Carlton Round 22 match being played?
The match is at Marvel Stadium in Melbourne, kicking off at 7:20pm AEST on Sunday 9 August 2026.
Does the team news change the tip for St Kilda vs Carlton?
No. Both sides were named about as expected and Carlton are unchanged, while St Kilda get a recall into their forward line. The Saints at $2.18 stand.
Who is St Kilda Saints playing next week?
St Kilda play Richmond - at the MCG on Saturday 15 August in AFL Round 23.
Who is Carlton Blues playing next week?
Carlton play Western Bulldogs - at Marvel Stadium on Sunday 16 August in AFL Round 23.
