Melbourne vs Carlton Prediction
Carlton are favourite and I’m not going to argue with…
Richmond vs West Coast Prediction
West Coast win the ball at the source and hunt harder without it, and in a low scoring scrap that is what gets a side home. This afternoon at the MCG I’ve got the Eagles at $1.70, with the real value in the multi at $4.87 given two sides that can both win this. They are 0 from 3 against Richmond, but that is a storyline, not a reason to bet.
AFL Round 21 • 2026
Model Predicted Final Score
RIC
$2.15
Sunday, August 2 • 1:10pm AEST
73 : 73
Melbourne Cricket Ground
WCE
$1.70
West Coast Eagles by 0 points
Model Predicted Margin
West Coast Eagles by 0
Current Market
West Coast Eagles -5.5
5.5 pts tighter
Our Bets This Game
H2HWest Coast Eagles
$1.70
LINERichmond Tigers +5.5
$1.89
TOTALUnder 165.5 points
$1.91
MULTIWest Coast Eagles Win, Under 165.5 points & Milan Murdock Anytime Goal
$4.87
Claim Tips at Unibet - Offer unibet
Odds correct at time of posting
West Coast Win the Ball Where This Game Gets Decided. This Afternoon at the MCG, I Think That Gets the Eagles Home.
Two sides at the bottom of the ladder, but West Coast are the ones winning the ball where it matters. They have been competitive against Brisbane, the Bulldogs and Adelaide, and I think that carries at the MCG.
The clearances decide a scrap like this
When two poor sides meet, the winner is usually whoever gets first hands on the ball. West Coast shade the hard ball stuff and Harley Reid is named again in the side. Against a Richmond engine room running on empty, that is the edge I am backing.
The last three have gone Richmond’s way
Here is the honest catch: Richmond have won the last three meetings, including by 11 earlier this year, so this is no certainty. What is different now is form and freshness. West Coast have been competitive against Brisbane, the Bulldogs and Adelaide, and Jack Graham returns. I think that is enough to flip it.
Two poor attacks, keep the score down
Neither side can score for quids, and a tight contest between them is unlikely to blow the total out. I have this staying under, and Richmond plus 5.5 covers me if the margin stays inside a kick.
Richmond vs West Coast Tip
I’ve got West Coast to win a tight, low scoring one inside a kick, on the back of winning the ball in the middle.
Richmond vs West Coast Key Stats
HIT-OUTS
RIC26
WCE32
West Coast’s ruck gives their midfield first crack at the ball, and in a scrap like this first use is what decides it.
TACKLES
RIC49
WCE57
The Eagles hunt harder without it, and that pressure is how you keep an ugly game low and grind out a tight win.
CONTESTED MARKS
RIC9
WCE8
Richmond hold a small edge in the air, and it is the one way they pinch this if their forwards stand up.
Richmond vs West Coast Form Guide
Richmond Tigers
LLLLL
- R20: L 48-105 vs Western Bulldogs
- R19: L 52-122 vs Hawthorn
- R18: L 65-111 vs Melbourne
- R17: L 72-74 vs Carlton
- R16: L 72-106 vs Collingwood
West Coast Eagles
LLLLL
- R20: L 42-112 vs Fremantle
- R19: L 69-93 vs Brisbane Lions
- R18: L 70-86 vs Western Bulldogs
- R17: L 74-99 vs Adelaide Crows
- R16: L 64-117 vs Carlton
Michael’s Verdict
West Coast do the important things better, so take them to win at $1.70 and keep Richmond plus 5.5 as the safety net. I am not staking big on two sides this poor, which is why the multi at $4.87 is where the value sits, and I expect a low score.
Our Bets
H2H West Coast Eagles$1.70
LINE Richmond Tigers +5.5$1.89
TOTAL Under 165.5 points$1.91
MULTI West Coast Eagles Win, Under 165.5 points & Milan Murdock Anytime Goal$4.87
Player Prop Predictions
Tim Kelly 25 or more disposals, $1.85. Piled on 31 last start, and with West Coast set to win the ball through the middle there’s plenty to go round. He’s cleared 25 in three of his last six and this shapes as another big one at $1.85.
Marcus Herbert 20 or more disposals, $1.28. Thirty six disposals last start, the top of a run that’s climbed every week from 15 up to 20, then 22. Twenty in three of his last six and the arrow’s only pointing one way at $1.28.
Milan Murdock to kick a goal, $1.50. A goal in each of his last three and four of his last seven, steady as they come. He’s the leg I’m happy to build the multi around at $1.50.
Jake Waterman three or more goals, $1.85. Slotted five not that long ago, so the big bag is well within him. Three or more in four of his last seven and $1.85 says there’s value if he gets going.
The Props I Like
PROP Tim Kelly 25+ Disposals$1.85
PROP Marcus Herbert 20+ Disposals$1.28
PROP Milan Murdock Anytime Goal$1.50
PROP Jake Waterman 3+ Goals$1.85
Player Props MultiMilan Murdock Anytime Goal, Jake Waterman 3+ Goals & Marcus Herbert 20+ Disposals, my price $3.55
These prop odds are Sportsbet’s, correct at time of posting. Prices move, so check before you bet and take the best one going. Late team changes can knock out any leg.
Up Next in the AFL
Key Facts
| Match | Richmond Tigers vs West Coast Eagles |
| Date | Sunday, August 2 |
| Kick-off | 1:10pm AEST |
| Venue | Melbourne Cricket Ground |
| Round | AFL Round 21 |
| Status | Scheduled |
| Our Tip | Multi: West Coast Eagles Win, Under 165.5 points & Milan Murdock Anytime Goal @ $4.87 |
| Predicted Score | Richmond Tigers 73 – West Coast Eagles 73 |
Richmond Tigers vs West Coast Eagles FAQs
Who will win Richmond vs West Coast?
I’ve got West Coast, but only just. Richmond have won the last three meetings, so it is no certainty, yet the Eagles win the ball where this game is decided and shade it at the MCG.
What is the best bet for Richmond vs West Coast in Round 21?
My headline multi at $4.87 takes the straight win with the total and a player prop, Milan Murdock Anytime Goal. I still like Richmond plus 5.5 as a safety net if it stays tight.
Where is the Richmond vs West Coast Round 21 match being played?
The match is at the MCG in Melbourne, bouncing down at 1:10pm on Sunday 2 August 2026.
Who is Richmond Tigers playing next week?
Richmond play Adelaide - at Adelaide Oval on Saturday 8 August in AFL Round 22.
Who is West Coast Eagles playing next week?
West Coast play Collingwood - at Optus Stadium on Sunday 9 August in AFL Round 22.
