Richmond vs St Kilda Prediction

AFL Round 23 • 2026

Model Predicted Final Score

RIC

$3.62

Saturday, August 15 • 12:35pm AEST

57 : 95

Melbourne Cricket Ground

STK

$1.29

St Kilda Saints by 38 points

Model Predicted Margin

St Kilda Saints by 38

Current Market

St Kilda Saints -22.5

15.5 pts edge

Our Bets This Game

H2HSt Kilda Saints

$1.29

LINESt Kilda Saints -22.5

$1.90

TOTALUnder 167.5 points

$1.91

MULTISt Kilda Saints -22.5, Under 167.5 points & Mitch Owens Anytime Goal

$4.35

Claim Tips at Unibet - Offer unibet

Odds correct at time of posting

St Kilda Have Won the Last Three Meetings and One of Them by Eighty Two Points. Richmond Are Being Given Twenty Two and a Half, and That Is Nowhere Near Enough.

The bookies want St Kilda to win by more than 22.5 points.

I have them winning by a lot more than that.

The lists are out and nothing in them shifts me. Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera is out injured and he is a genuine loss, but Jack Macrae comes back in through the middle.

Twenty Two and a Half Is Nowhere Near Enough

I make this 38 points. The line asks St Kilda for 22.5, so I am being handed more than two goals of margin for nothing. That is not a close call.

Richmond Do Not Lose Close

Look at the Tigers’ form guide on this page. Beaten by 57 by the Bulldogs, by 70 by Hawthorn, by 46 by Melbourne. Richmond keeping a game inside four goals is the exception, and they used one of those up on Adelaide last week.

The Case Against Me Is St Kilda’s Own Form

St Kilda have lost their last two and Carlton put 44 on them last start, so nobody should be treating this as free money.

What is different here is the opponent. The Saints have won the last three meetings with Richmond, one of them by 82 points.

The Points Stay Down

Richmond have not passed 85 in their last five and St Kilda are hardly flooding the scoreboard themselves. A one sided game against a side that cannot score tends to finish quieter than the market expects. The under is the other play.

Richmond vs St Kilda Tip

I’m tipping St Kilda by 38, because Richmond have no way of scoring enough to keep this respectable.

Richmond vs St Kilda Key Stats

Richmond vs St Kilda Form Guide

Player Prop Predictions

Tom Lynch to kick a goal, $1.13. He kicked two in consecutive games through the middle of that run and has a goal in three of his last six. One is all this bet needs, and $1.13 tells you how the market sees it.

Jack Higgins two or more goals, $1.54. Higgins has not been kept goalless once in his last seven and has kicked two or more in four of them. With St Kilda winning the way I have this going, the shots keep coming and $1.54 is a fair ask.

Mitch Owens to kick a goal, $1.20. Two goals last start is the reason he anchors my multi, and that is a goal in four of his last seven. At $1.20 he is the steady leg on this page.

Hugo Garcia to kick a goal, $2.15. Garcia has not gone two games in a row without one all run, and he has hit the scoreboard in four of his last seven. Coming off a blank, in a game I have St Kilda winning by 38, $2.15 is the overs of the page.

Darcy Wilson 25 or more disposals, $2.17. Twenty five on the board last start, with a 29 and a 28 also in the last seven and 25 or more in four of them. Richmond will be chasing the footy all afternoon, so $2.17 for him to find it again is the play.

These prop odds are Sportsbet’s, correct at time of posting. Prices move, so check before you bet and take the best one going. Late team changes can knock out any leg.

Up Next in the AFL

Today 7:40pm AEST Western Bulldogs vs Collingwood Prediction Tomorrow 7:35pm AEST Melbourne vs Carlton Prediction