Fremantle vs Brisbane Grand Final Prediction
Brisbane by four. That is my number for the Grand…
Richmond vs Hawthorn Prediction
Richmond at the MCG against a Hawthorn side entrenched in the four: on paper it is a mismatch, and I don’t think the paper is lying. The value is not in who wins, that is settled, but in how far this stretches.
AFL Round 19 • 2026
Model Predicted Final Score
RIC
$10.50
Sunday, July 19 • 1:10pm AEST
56 : 111
Melbourne Cricket Ground
HAW
$1.05
Hawthorn Hawks by 54 points
Model Predicted Margin
Hawthorn Hawks by 54
Current Market
Hawthorn Hawks -49.5
4.5 pts edge
Our Bets This Game
H2HHawthorn Hawks
$1.05
LINEHawthorn Hawks -49.5
$1.90
TOTALUnder 176.5 points
$1.90
MULTIHawks Win, Hawks -49.5 & Under 176.5
$3.79
Claim Tips at Unibet - Offer unibet
Odds correct at time of posting
Hawthorn Have Won The Last Three Meetings, None Of Them Close. Round 19 Shapes As Another Procession At The MCG.
I know a 49.5 line looks silly on the face of it. I’m still happy to be on the right side of it.
Richmond sit 17th and have lost their last five. Hawthorn are a genuine top four side winning the ruck and the clearances. This is not a gap that is closing.
Nine Goals, And I’ll Still Lay It
Backing a side sitting 17th to lose by under eight and a half goals is the trap this line sets. I make the margin bigger than that. I’ve got Hawthorn by around nine goals, and the line asks for a touch over eight, so the number is coverable even before you factor in how flat Richmond have been.
Hawthorn Have Turned This Into A Pattern
These two have met three times lately and Richmond have lost the lot, none of them close. That is not ancient history, it is a pattern. Hawthorn are a level above right now, and nothing about Richmond’s season says the gap has narrowed.
The Under Is The Bet I Like Most
Richmond’s scoring has dried up and Hawthorn are happy to control the footy through the middle. When one side cannot score and the other slows the game to its own tempo, the total stays down. Of the three legs, the unders is where I’d have most confidence.
Where This Goes Wrong
Big lines carry their own risk. A wounded home side can throw caution away, pinch a fast start and make nine goals look a long way off. And if Hawthorn ease right off once the result is safe, a late Richmond flurry is the one thing that troubles both the line and the unders.
Richmond vs Hawthorn Tip
Hawthorn by around nine goals at the MCG. They win the ruck 45.7 to 24.8 and run the ball through the middle, and Richmond cannot score enough to stay with them.
Richmond vs Hawthorn Key Stats
HIT-OUTS
RIC25
HAW46
Hawthorn are winning the ruck 45.7 to 24.8, and first hands at the stoppage is how they turn clearances into territory in the forward half.
MARKS INSIDE 50
RIC10
HAW13
12.8 marks inside 50 to Richmond’s 9.8 means repeat shots for Hawthorn while Richmond’s scoreboard stays still.
TACKLES
RIC49
HAW59
59.4 tackles to 48.5 is the pressure that chokes Richmond’s ball movement and forces the turnovers that stretch a lead out.
Richmond vs Hawthorn Form Guide
Richmond Tigers
LLLLL
- L 65-111 vs Melbourne
- L 72-74 vs Carlton
- L 72-106 vs Collingwood
- L 48-73 vs North Melbourne
- L 80-115 vs Brisbane Lions
Hawthorn Hawks
WLWWL
- W 103-39 vs Carlton
- L 90-125 vs Melbourne
- W 96-82 vs GWS Giants
- W 113-97 vs Gold Coast Suns
- L 71-77 vs Western Bulldogs
Michael’s Verdict
I’m on Hawthorn, and I’m on them to cover. Richmond have shown nothing to suggest they can stay within nine goals of a side controlling the ruck and the midfield this comfortably, and their scoring has gone the way of their season. Take the Hawks, take the line, and the unders are the sweetener.
Our Bets
H2H Hawthorn Hawks$1.05
LINE Hawthorn Hawks -49.5$1.90
TOTAL Under 176.5 points$1.90
MULTI Hawks Win, Hawks -49.5 & Under 176.5$3.79
Key Facts
| Match | Richmond Tigers vs Hawthorn Hawks |
| Date | Sunday, July 19 |
| Kick-off | 1:10pm AEST |
| Venue | Melbourne Cricket Ground |
| Round | AFL Round 19 |
| Status | Scheduled |
| Our Tip | Hawthorn Multi: H2H + Line + Under 176.5 @ $3.79 |
| Predicted Score | Richmond Tigers 56 – Hawthorn Hawks 111 |
Richmond Tigers vs Hawthorn Hawks FAQs
Who will win Richmond vs Hawthorn?
Hawthorn, and comfortably. We make it around nine goals, with Hawthorn sitting third and Richmond 17th and beaten in each of their last five. They win the ruck 45.7 to 24.8 and Richmond cannot match it.
What is the best bet for Richmond vs Hawthorn in Round 19?
Our best bet is the multi: Hawthorn to win, cover the 49.5 line and under 176.5 total points, paying $3.79. The unders is the leg we like most, with Hawthorn happy to control tempo and slow the game down.
Where is the Richmond vs Hawthorn Round 19 match being played?
At the MCG in Melbourne, with a 1:10pm start on Sunday.
Who is Richmond Tigers playing next week?
Richmond play Western Bulldogs - Afl tips western bulldogs vs richmond prediction 25 07 26 at Marvel Stadium on Saturday 25 July in AFL Round 20.
Who is Hawthorn Hawks playing next week?
Hawthorn play Essendon - Afl tips hawthorn vs essendon prediction 25 07 26 at the MCG on Saturday 25 July in AFL Round 20.
