Fremantle vs Brisbane Grand Final Prediction
Brisbane by four. That is my number for the Grand…
Richmond vs Carlton Prediction
Carlton at the MCG, humming along and hunting a seventh on the trot, against a young Richmond side still learning how to hurt good teams. I’m on the Blues to win this comfortably, and I don’t think the scoreboard ticks over as fast as some expect.
AFL Round 17 • 2026
Model Predicted Final Score
RIC
$5.80
Saturday, July 4 • 7:35 pm
57 : 93
MCG
CAR
$1.14
Carlton Blues by 36 points
Model Predicted Margin
Carlton Blues by 36
Current Market
Richmond Tigers +35.5
0.5 pts edge
Our Bets This Game
H2HCarlton Blues
$1.14
LINECarlton Blues -34.5
$1.91
TOTALUnder 168.5 points
$1.90
MULTICarlton Win, Carlton -34.5 & Under 168.5
$4.14
Claim Tips at Unibet - Offer unibet
Odds correct at time of posting
Carlton walk into the MCG chasing a seventh straight win. Richmond have the fight, but not the firepower to make them sweat.
This one is about a class gap the market has priced but plenty will still underrate. Carlton do the boring things better, and that is exactly what buries a young side.
Carlton’s midfield only gets deeper
Seven straight wins isn’t luck, it’s control. They roll forward with numbers and hold up late, with Hollands back through the middle after his ankle adding to the depth. Against a young team, that depth tells in the last quarter.
Richmond can’t make the MCG count
Tom Lynch is back to give the Tigers’ kids a target, and that matters for their future. It doesn’t much matter tonight. Richmond’s problem isn’t getting the ball inside 50, it’s what happens when they get there, and against a side this settled those wasted entries become turnovers the other way.
The points stay down
Don’t expect a shootout. Richmond don’t score heavily and Carlton are happy to strangle a game when they’re on top, so this has the shape of a controlled territory grind rather than a blowout that runs from goal to goal. That is why the total looks the smarter side of the card than piling on more margin.
Richmond vs Carlton Tip
Carlton by six goals. The gap is efficiency: they turn forward entries into scores where Richmond burn them.
Richmond vs Carlton Key Stats
EFFICIENCY INSIDE 50
RIC44%
CAR52%
Carlton cash 52.5% of their inside 50s to Richmond’s 43.6% , and that gap is where the scoreboard opens up.
STOPPAGE CLEARANCES
RIC19
CAR23
Carlton win it at the source, 23 clearances a game to Richmond’s 19.1, and with Ollie Hollands back through the middle that edge only firms.
GOALS PER GAME
RIC9
CAR12
Richmond average 9.4 goals a game to Carlton’s 11.8 , and a side that modest is why the total leans under, even with the Blues adding on.
Richmond vs Carlton Form Guide
Richmond Tigers
LLLLW
- L 72-106 vs Collingwood
- L 48-73 vs North Melbourne
- L 80-115 vs Brisbane Lions
- L 56-170 vs Sydney Swans
- W 74-56 vs Essendon
Carlton Blues
WWWWW
- W 117-64 vs West Coast Eagles
- W 88-65 vs GWS Giants
- W 72-67 vs Essendon
- W 88-84 vs Geelong Cats
- W 92-58 vs Port Adelaide
Michael’s Verdict
Carlton are the best organised side here by a distance, and Richmond don’t have the polish to stay with them for four quarters. I’m backing the Blues to win comfortably and the game to stay low. The only risk is they ease off once it’s won, which is why the line and the under sit better than chasing an even bigger margin.
Our Bets
H2H Carlton Blues$1.14
LINE Carlton Blues -34.5$1.91
TOTAL Under 168.5 points$1.90
MULTI Carlton Win, Carlton -34.5 & Under 168.5$4.14
Key Facts
| Match | Richmond Tigers vs Carlton Blues |
| Date | Saturday, July 4 |
| Kick-off | 7:35 pm AEST |
| Venue | Melbourne Cricket Ground |
| Round | AFL Round 17 |
| Status | Scheduled |
| Our Tip | Carlton Multi: H2H + Line + Under 168.5 @ $4.14 |
| Predicted Score | Richmond Tigers 57 – Carlton Blues 93 |
Richmond Tigers vs Carlton Blues FAQs
Who will win Richmond vs Carlton?
Carlton. They punish their forward entries where Richmond waste them, and I’ve got them to win by around six goals at the MCG.
What is the best bet for Richmond vs Carlton in Round 17?
Carlton to win is the anchor at $1.14, with the line and a low total adding the value around it.
Where is the Richmond vs Carlton Round 17 match being played?
At the MCG in Melbourne, with the first bounce at 7:35pm on Saturday 4 July.
Verified result – Round 17
We tipped Carlton Blues to win – correct. Final score: Richmond Tigers 72 – Carlton Blues 74.
| Market | Our bet | Result | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| Line | Carlton Blues -35.5 @ $1.89 | Loss | -1.00u |
Predicted: Richmond Tigers 57 – Carlton Blues 93. Off by 34 pts on the margin. Season-to-date accuracy and ROI: AFL results page - Afl tips afl results.
