Fremantle vs Brisbane Grand Final Prediction
Brisbane by four. That is my number for the Grand…
Port Adelaide vs North Melbourne Prediction
Port Adelaide get to defend their patch at Adelaide Oval this afternoon, and I have them nicking the win. But North Melbourne are the form side, they have already knocked the Power over once this season, and getting 14.5 points is where the real value sits.
AFL Round 17 • 2026
Model Predicted Final Score
PTA
$1.45
Sunday, July 5 • 5:10pm AEST
81 : 75
Adelaide Oval
NME
$2.77
Port Adelaide Power by 7 points
Model Predicted Margin
Port Adelaide Power by 7
Current Market
Port Adelaide Power -17.5
10.5 pts tighter
Our Bets This Game
H2HPort Adelaide Power
$1.45
LINENorth Melbourne Kangaroos +14.5
$1.90
TOTALUnder 171.5 points
$1.90
MULTIPower Win, Kangaroos +14.5 & Under 171.5
$5.23
Claim Tips at Unibet - Offer unibet
Odds correct at time of posting
North Melbourne Already Beat Port Adelaide Once This Year. At 14.5 Points, the Roos Are the Bet Again.
This is a home favourite I only half trust against a visitor playing the better footy. The one risk to the Roos cover is the long trip west leaving them flat, and if North turn up road-weary a tight game can get away from you. At their best they are inside 14.5, so the winner and the value sit on opposite sides.
North Melbourne are the live dog
The Roos have won four of their last five and rolled into round 17 as the form team on the park. They already beat Port earlier this year and are chasing the double. A side playing like this being handed 14.5 points is a gift, and I am taking it.
Bergman returns for Port
Port welcome Miles Bergman back into the side this week. It is enough to nudge them over the line at home. It is not enough to turn a tight game into a fortnight, so I still want the points with the visitors.
Why North stay inside 14.5
Port get first use, but North turn it over less and tackle harder inside 50, and that is how a form side keeps a tight game tight. With the way the Roos defend and move the ball, this shapes as a one-goal or two-goal game, and the total should sit under 171.5.
Port Adelaide vs North Melbourne Tip
Port Adelaide win at home, but I make it a one-straight-kick game, so North Melbourne and the 14.5-point line is the play.
Port Adelaide vs North Melbourne Key Stats
HIT-OUTS
PTA39
NME30
Port pump out 39.3 hit-outs a game to North’s 29.9, and that first use out of the middle is what edges the Power the win at home.
TURN OVERS
PTA67
NME58
Port cough it up 67.1 times a game to North’s 58.5, and that extra sloppiness is exactly what keeps the Roos inside the 14.5-point line.
TACKLES INSIDE 50
PTA10
NME12
North lay 11.6 tackles inside 50 a game to Port’s 9.8, locking the ball in their forward half to keep scoring and stay in touch on the scoreboard.
Port Adelaide vs North Melbourne Form Guide
Port Adelaide Power
WLLWL
- W 97-71 vs Adelaide Crows
- L 52-78 vs Collingwood
- L 90-93 vs Sydney Swans
- W 77-71 vs West Coast Eagles
- L 58-92 vs Carlton
North Melbourne Kangaroos
WWWLW
- W 79-65 vs Essendon
- W 73-48 vs Richmond
- W 74-73 vs West Coast Eagles
- L 31-155 vs Fremantle
- W 111-105 vs Gold Coast Suns
Michael’s Verdict
Take Port Adelaide to win but North Melbourne to cover the 14.5, with the total staying under. Two even sides and the Power just holding home ground, this is a one-goal game, not a blowout.
Our Bets
H2H Port Adelaide Power$1.45
LINE North Melbourne Kangaroos +14.5$1.90
TOTAL Under 171.5 points$1.90
MULTI Power Win, Kangaroos +14.5 & Under 171.5$5.23
Key Facts
| Match | Port Adelaide Power vs North Melbourne Kangaroos |
| Date | Sunday, July 5 |
| Kick-off | 5:10pm AEST |
| Venue | Adelaide Oval |
| Round | AFL Round 17 |
| Status | Scheduled |
| Our Tip | Port Adelaide Multi: H2H + Line + Under 171.5 @ $5.23 |
| Predicted Score | Port Adelaide Power 81 – North Melbourne Kangaroos 75 |
Port Adelaide Power vs North Melbourne Kangaroos FAQs
Who will win Port Adelaide vs North Melbourne?
Port Adelaide are the tip to win at Adelaide Oval, edging it with Bergman back and home-ground advantage. North Melbourne are the form side and already won the first meeting this year, so it should be close. We have Port by around a goal.
What is the best bet for Port Adelaide vs North Melbourne in Round 17?
The value is North Melbourne and the 14.5-point line at $1.90, with the total staying Under 171.5. Port win, but 14.5 points is far too many against a side that has won four of its last five. The legs combine into a multi at $5.23.
Where is the Port Adelaide vs North Melbourne Round 17 match being played?
The match is at Adelaide Oval, with the first bounce at 4:40pm ACST on Sunday. It is a home game for Port Adelaide, with North Melbourne making the trip across for the clash.
Verified result – Round 17
We tipped Port Adelaide Power to win – correct. Final score: Port Adelaide Power 73 – North Melbourne Kangaroos 52.
| Market | Our bet | Result | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| Line | North Melbourne Kangaroos +17.5 @ $1.89 | Loss | -1.00u |
Predicted: Port Adelaide Power 81 – North Melbourne Kangaroos 75. Off by 15 pts on the margin. Season-to-date accuracy and ROI: AFL results page - Afl tips afl results.
