Melbourne vs Carlton Prediction
Carlton are favourite and I’m not going to argue with…
Port Adelaide vs Melbourne Prediction
Port Adelaide have lost five in a row and one of those was by 97 points, so nobody is arguing about the winner at Adelaide Oval on Saturday night. The argument is the number, and I think the bookies have gone way past what Melbourne actually do to sides.
AFL Round 23 • 2026
Model Predicted Final Score
PTA
$4.30
Saturday, August 15 • 8:10pm AEST
77 : 95
Adelaide Oval
MEL
$1.22
Melbourne Demons by 18 points
Model Predicted Margin
Melbourne Demons by 18
Current Market
Melbourne Demons -28.5
10.5 pts tighter
Our Bets This Game
H2HMelbourne Demons
$1.22
LINEPort Adelaide Power +28.5
$1.90
TOTALUnder 182.5 points
$1.86
MULTIPort Adelaide Power +28.5, Under 182.5 points & Kysaiah Pickett Anytime Goal
$4.06
Claim Tips at Unibet - Offer unibet
Odds correct at time of posting
Melbourne Have Won Their Last Two by Four Points and by Nine. The Bookies Want Them to Beat Port Adelaide by Twenty Eight and a Half on Saturday Night.
Port Adelaide are a mess and Melbourne are going to beat them.
That is not the same thing as Melbourne beating them by five goals, and the price is charging me for the difference. The Demons won their last two by four points and by nine. That is who they are right now, a side that gets its nose in front and then plays out the night.
Melbourne Win Games, They Do Not Bury Them
Look at the Demons on this page. Four points against Fremantle last start, nine against Gold Coast the week before. Their last two wins have been by four points and by nine, not by five goals, and the market is pricing them like the other thing. That is where the 18 comes from. I am already giving them more than they have managed in a month.
The Case Against Me Is Port’s Last Month
Sydney put 167 on Port Adelaide last start and GWS beat them the week before that. Five losses in a row, and backing them to stay within five goals of anyone is a bold way to spend a Saturday night.
Port not passing 75 in their last five is the one number that argues against me, so here is the honest answer to it. You do not need Port to score. You need Melbourne to stop. A cold night where Port scrape to 55 and Melbourne win it 73 to 55 is an ugly game of football, and it still pays the points.
What holds me there is the record between these two. Port have won two of the last three meetings, one of them by two points.
Port Get Richards Back and Lose Byrne-Jones
Joe Richards returns to the side while Darcy Byrne-Jones is out. That is the only selection news worth your time and it is a wash at best for a team already short on answers. It does not move the 18 and it does not move the total. The reason I am on the points is the number, not the team sheet.
The Points Do Not Get to 182
Port Adelaide have not passed 75 in their last five. For this total to land, Melbourne have to kick well over 100 on a cold night in Adelaide with showers about, and that is not the way they win. The under is the other play.
Port Adelaide vs Melbourne Tip
Melbourne by 18. Comfortable win, nowhere near the margin the market wants them to make.
Port Adelaide vs Melbourne Key Stats
CENTRE CLEARANCES
PTA13
MEL15
Melbourne get first use out of the middle, which is why the winner is not the argument here. It is also how they keep a night on their terms without ever needing to run away with it.
HANDBALLS
PTA124
MEL149
The Demons move it by hand and keep the ball rather than bomb it long. That is a tempo game, and tempo games finish where Melbourne have been finishing lately, in front and close, not five goals clear.
MARKS
PTA97
MEL87
Port’s marks are a beaten side taking uncontested ball behind the play. It did not save them against Sydney and it will not win them this one, but it is exactly the habit that drags a scoreboard down, which is the under.
Port Adelaide vs Melbourne Form Guide
Port Adelaide Power
LLLLL
- R22: L 70-167 vs Sydney Swans
- R21: L 63-75 vs GWS Giants
- R20: L 67-126 vs Brisbane Lions
- R19: L 75-103 vs Fremantle
- R18: L 73-87 vs St Kilda
Melbourne Demons
WWLWW
- R22: W 113-109 vs Fremantle
- R21: W 114-105 vs Gold Coast Suns
- R20: L 97-117 vs Geelong Cats
- R19: W 92-76 vs North Melbourne
- R18: W 111-65 vs Richmond
Michael’s Verdict
Melbourne win it, Port stay inside the 28.5, and the total stays under 182.5. The risk is the Port side that shipped 167 to Sydney turning up again, and if that version arrives this is settled by half time. I am backing the likelier one, which is Melbourne grinding out a cold night at Adelaide Oval the way they have been grinding out most of them. Prices below are what I could see Friday morning, so check your own app before you bet.
Our Bets
H2H Melbourne Demons$1.22
LINE Port Adelaide Power +28.5$1.90
TOTAL Under 182.5 points$1.86
MULTI Port Adelaide Power +28.5, Under 182.5 points & Kysaiah Pickett Anytime Goal$4.06
Player Prop Predictions
Mitch Georgiades three or more goals, $2.50. Three goals last start, and that is three or more in three of his last six. Port Adelaide keep finding him even when they are second best, and $2.50 for a bloke doing it half the time is fair.
Corey Durdin two or more goals, $2.25. He was back on the board last start with two, which makes it two or more in four of his last seven. Melbourne winning by three goals still leaves Port Adelaide plenty of forward fifty, and a pair is all he needs at $2.25.
Kysaiah Pickett to kick a goal, $1.15. Two goals last start, the best of his run, and he has goaled in four of his last seven with each of the past four on the board. Melbourne are on top in this one so the chances come, and $1.15 is exactly what a steady leg should cost.
Jason Horne-Francis 25 or more disposals, $2.16. The 18 last start is the outlier of the run. Four of the six games before it were 29 or better and he has got to 25 or more in four of his last seven, so $2.16 is backing the ball winning to come straight back.
Jake Bowey 25 or more disposals, $1.55. He lives right on the number: 24 last start, one short, but 24 or better in six of his last seven and at least 25 in four of them. With Melbourne holding the footy for long stretches the volume is there, and $1.55 is a price worth taking.
The Props I Like
PROP Mitch Georgiades 3+ Goals$2.50
PROP Corey Durdin 2+ Goals$2.25
PROP Kysaiah Pickett Anytime Goal$1.15
PROP Jason Horne-Francis 25+ Disposals$2.16
PROP Jake Bowey 25+ Disposals$1.55
Player Props MultiKysaiah Pickett Anytime Goal, Jake Bowey 25+ Disposals & Jason Horne-Francis 25+ Disposals, my price $3.85
These prop odds are Sportsbet’s, correct at time of posting. Prices move, so check before you bet and take the best one going. Late team changes can knock out any leg.
Up Next in the AFL
Key Facts
| Match | Port Adelaide Power vs Melbourne Demons |
| Date | Saturday, August 15 |
| Kick-off | 8:10pm AEST |
| Venue | Adelaide Oval |
| Round | AFL Round 23 |
| Status | Scheduled |
| Our Tip | Multi: Port Adelaide Power +28.5, Under 182.5 points & Kysaiah Pickett Anytime Goal @ $4.06 |
| Predicted Score | Port Adelaide Power 77 – Melbourne Demons 95 |
Port Adelaide Power vs Melbourne Demons FAQs
Who will win Port Adelaide vs Melbourne?
Melbourne, at Adelaide Oval. Port Adelaide have lost five in a row and the Demons win the ball out of the middle far more often. Winning is not the question. The 28.5 the bookies want them to clear is.
What is the best bet for Port Adelaide vs Melbourne in Round 23?
My headline multi at $4.06 rolls the line and total in with a player prop, Kysaiah Pickett Anytime Goal. On its own, Port Adelaide Power +28.5 at $1.90 is the anchor.
Why back Port Adelaide when they have lost five straight?
I am not backing them to win. I am backing them to lose by less than five goals, which is a completely different bet. Port have also won two of the last three against Melbourne, one of them by two points, so the idea that the Demons own this matchup does not hold up.
What happens to the under if it rains?
Showers help it. A cold night at Adelaide Oval with a greasy ball is not where anyone kicks a big score, and for the 182.5 to go over you need both sides putting up numbers. Wet weather makes the under stronger, not weaker.
Where is the Port Adelaide vs Melbourne Round 23 match being played?
The match is at Adelaide Oval in Adelaide, bouncing down at 8:10pm AEST (7:40pm local time) on Saturday 15 August 2026.
Who is Port Adelaide Power playing next week?
Port Adelaide play Essendon - at Marvel Stadium on Sunday 23 August in AFL Round 24.
Who is Melbourne Demons playing next week?
Melbourne play the Western Bulldogs - at the MCG on Saturday 22 August in AFL Round 24.
