Fremantle vs Brisbane Grand Final Prediction
Brisbane by four. That is my number for the Grand…
Port Adelaide vs Fremantle Prediction
Top of the ladder against 15th, and Fremantle should win it. But 47.5 points is a lot to ask of anyone at Adelaide Oval, and Port Adelaide mark it well enough to keep this closer than the market thinks.
AFL Round 19 • 2026
Model Predicted Final Score
PTA
$9.50
Saturday, July 18 • 1:15pm AEST
67 : 97
Adelaide Oval
FRE
$1.06
Fremantle Dockers by 30 points
Model Predicted Margin
Fremantle Dockers by 30
Current Market
Port Adelaide Power +47.5
17.5 pts tighter
Our Bets This Game
H2HFremantle Dockers
$1.06
LINEPort Adelaide Power +47.5
$1.89
TOTALUnder 172.5 points
$1.90
MULTIDockers Win, Power +47.5 & Under 172.5
$3.81
Claim Tips at Unibet - Offer unibet
Odds correct at time of posting
Fremantle sit top of the ladder, Port Adelaide sit 15th, and the books have turned that into an eight goal line. At Adelaide Oval that is too fat.
Fremantle are the best side in the competition right now and I’m not talking anyone out of the head to head. The question is the handicap, and 47.5 is a number built on Fremantle’s biggest wins, not on this matchup. On scoring the gap is nearer three goals a game than eight.
This line is a blowout number, not a Port Adelaide number
Fremantle have hung some huge scores on lesser sides this year, and the market has baked those into the handicap. Port sit 15th, but at home they compete, and a side that marks it at 99.1 a game to Freo’s 88.8 does not get run off the park by eight goals. On the goals count the gap is about three, not eight. I make it closer to five, which is why Port on the line is the play.
This shapes as a grind, not a shootout
Freo win the uncontested ball 234.4 to 207.8, about +27 a game, and that is how they slow the game down when they are on top. Port at 11.3 goals a game are not a side that answers back in scoring bursts. Split 172.5 and it is about 86 a side, and neither of these teams is a lock to get there. The under looks right.
The risk is Fremantle simply being too good
If Fremantle turn on the football the way they have in their big wins this year, that line disappears in a hurry. That is the result that beats the Port Adelaide handicap. But a top side on the road does not always bring its best, and I will take the points.
Port Adelaide vs Fremantle Tip
Fremantle get the win, but not by the eight goals the books are pricing, so the value is Port Adelaide on the line and the total staying under.
Port Adelaide vs Fremantle Key Stats
GOALS
PTA11
FRE14
Freo average 14.4 goals a game to Port’s 11.3, so the scoring gap is about three goals, not eight. Split 172.5 and it is roughly 86 a side, and Port at 11.3 goals are not a side that piles it on. That is the under.
UNCONTESTED POSSESSIONS
PTA208
FRE234
Freo win the uncontested count 234.4 to 207.8, about +27 a game. That is how they control tempo and grind the game down, which points to a lower scoring night.
MARKS
PTA99
FRE89
Port mark it at 99.1 a game to Freo’s 88.8, a clear +10 edge. That is how they hang in and cover the line.
Port Adelaide vs Fremantle Form Guide
Port Adelaide Power
LWWLL
- L 73-87 vs St Kilda
- W 73-52 vs North Melbourne
- W 97-71 vs Adelaide Crows
- L 52-78 vs Collingwood
- L 90-93 vs Sydney Swans
Fremantle Dockers
WLWWW
- W 111-73 vs Sydney Swans
- L 88-109 vs GWS Giants
- W 80-29 vs Gold Coast Suns
- W 99-90 vs Geelong Cats
- W 155-31 vs North Melbourne
Michael’s Verdict
Fremantle win, that’s the easy part. But I’m not paying 47.5 for it, not against a Port Adelaide side that competes at home and pulls down 99 marks a game to Freo’s 89. Give me Port on the line and the unders.
Our Bets
H2H Fremantle Dockers$1.06
LINE Port Adelaide Power +47.5$1.89
TOTAL Under 172.5 points$1.90
MULTI Dockers Win, Power +47.5 & Under 172.5$3.81
Key Facts
| Match | Port Adelaide Power vs Fremantle Dockers |
| Date | Saturday, July 18 |
| Kick-off | 1:15pm AEST |
| Venue | Adelaide Oval |
| Round | AFL Round 19 |
| Status | Scheduled |
| Our Tip | Fremantle Multi: H2H + Line + Under 172.5 @ $3.81 |
| Predicted Score | Port Adelaide Power 67 – Fremantle Dockers 97 |
Port Adelaide Power vs Fremantle Dockers FAQs
Who will win Port Adelaide vs Fremantle?
Fremantle. They sit top of the ladder and are clearly the better side, and our tip has them winning by around five goals. The value, though, is Port Adelaide on the line.
What is the best bet for Port Adelaide vs Fremantle in Round 19?
Port Adelaide +47.5 on the line at $1.89, paired with the total under 172.5 at $1.90. The multi of Fremantle to win, Port Adelaide to cover and the under pays $3.81.
Where is the Port Adelaide vs Fremantle Round 19 match being played?
Adelaide Oval, Port Adelaide’s home ground. The first bounce is on Saturday afternoon.
Who is Port Adelaide playing next week?
Port Adelaide play Brisbane - Afl tips brisbane vs port adelaide prediction 26 07 26 at the Gabba on Sunday 26 July in AFL Round 20.
Who is Fremantle playing next week?
Fremantle host West Coast - Afl tips fremantle vs west coast prediction 24 07 26 at Optus Stadium on Friday 24 July in AFL Round 20.
Verified result – Round 19
We tipped Fremantle Dockers to win – correct. Final score: Port Adelaide Power 75 – Fremantle Dockers 103.
| Market | Our bet | Result | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| Line | Port Adelaide Power +47.5 @ $1.90 | Win | +0.90u |
| Multi | Dockers Win, Power +47.5 & Under 170.5 @ $3.73 | Win | +2.73u |
Predicted: Port Adelaide Power 67 – Fremantle Dockers 97. Off by 2 pts on the margin. Season-to-date accuracy and ROI: AFL results page - Afl tips afl results.
