North Melbourne vs Geelong Prediction

AFL Round 23 • 2026

Model Predicted Final Score

NME

$3.34

Saturday, August 15 • 3:45pm AEST

68 : 103

Marvel Stadium

GEE

$1.33

Geelong Cats by 35 points

Model Predicted Margin

Geelong Cats by 35

Current Market

Geelong Cats -20.5

14.5 pts edge

Our Bets This Game

H2HGeelong Cats

$1.33

LINEGeelong Cats -20.5

$1.89

TOTALUnder 183.5 points

$1.89

MULTIGeelong Cats -20.5, Under 183.5 points & Tom Stewart 25+ Disposals

$14.29

Claim Tips at Unibet - Offer unibet

Odds correct at time of posting

Geelong Have Won the Last Three Against North Melbourne and I Have Them Winning This One by Five Goals and More. Twenty and a Half Is Not Enough Protection on Saturday.

North beat the Bulldogs last week and this price has moved like that means something here.

It does not. Geelong have had their number three times in a row and this is the matchup that finds them out.

Thirty Five Against Twenty and a Half

I make this 35 points and the line asks Geelong for 20.5. That is two and a half goals of margin the bookies are handing over because North won last week.

One good afternoon does not undo the last three times these two met. Geelong won all three of them, and none of them read like a side that needs 20.5 points of help.

North’s Best Weapon Is the Case Against Me

The Kangaroos rank first in the AFL for disposal efficiency and give the ball up less often than any side in the competition. That is the one real argument against me, because you cannot score off mistakes a side does not make.

My answer is territory. All that care is worth nothing if the ball spends the afternoon down the other end, and that is where this one is getting played.

Geelong Get Dangerfield Back

A Geelong side that has put 117 on the board twice in the last three weeks did not need the help, and now it has it. Dangerfield back in is a bonus, not the reason I am on them.

The Points Do Not Get to 183

North have been held under 90 in four of their last five. Geelong can kick a big score here and this total still does not get there, because North are not putting one up to go with it.

For 183 to land both sides have to have a day out, and I do not think the Kangaroos have one in them against this defence. The under is the other play.

North Melbourne vs Geelong Tip

I’m tipping Geelong by 35. The Cats have beaten these blokes three times running and North have not shown me a way to score with them.

North Melbourne vs Geelong Key Stats

North Melbourne vs Geelong Form Guide

Player Prop Predictions

George Wardlaw to kick a goal, $4.00. He goaled last start and has found one in two of his last four. North have not shown me a way to score on Geelong, so I want the bloke who is still getting it done, and $4.00 pays for the trouble.

Tom Stewart 25 or more disposals, $4.00. Twenty five or more in three of his last six, including back to back 25s, and he has not dropped under 18 in that whole run. That floor is why he anchors my multi.

James Worpel 20 or more disposals, $1.56. Nineteen last start, one touch short, with a pair of 24s in the same four game block. He lives right on 20 or more and Geelong controlling this one keeps the ball in his hands.

Gryan Miers to kick a goal, $1.66. A goal in two of his last four and a three goal game inside that stretch. If I am right about Geelong by 35, the forward half is where this game gets played out.

Jhye Clark 20 or more disposals, $2.15. Twenty on the board last start, landing the market on the number. He has been at 20 or more in two of his last four and opened that run with 25, so the work is there at $2.15.

These prop odds are Sportsbet’s, correct at time of posting. Prices move, so check before you bet and take the best one going. Late team changes can knock out any leg.

Up Next in the AFL

Today 7:40pm AEST Western Bulldogs vs Collingwood Prediction Tomorrow 7:35pm AEST Melbourne vs Carlton Prediction