Melbourne vs Carlton Prediction
Carlton are favourite and I’m not going to argue with…
Melbourne vs Richmond Prediction
The head to head at $1.08 is not a bet, it’s a formality, so the whole conversation is the line and the total. Melbourne win far too much of the ball against this Richmond side, and that is what turns a line north of forty into a live play.
AFL Round 18 • 2026
Model Predicted Final Score
MEL
$1.08
Sunday, July 12 • 3:15pm AEST
105 : 63
MCG
RIC
$8.00
Melbourne Demons by 42 points
Model Predicted Margin
Melbourne Demons by 42
Current Market
Melbourne Demons -41.5
0.5 pts edge
Our Bets This Game
H2HMelbourne Demons
$1.08
LINEMelbourne Demons -41.5
$1.90
TOTALUnder 172.5 points
$1.90
MULTIDemons Win, Demons -41.5 & Under 172.5
$3.90
Claim Tips at Unibet - Offer unibet
Odds correct at time of posting
Melbourne put 54 points on Richmond when these two met earlier this season, and the Tigers’ year has only got harder since. The 41.5 line at the MCG today is big, but so is the gap.
At $1.08 the winner is a formality, so the real question is whether Melbourne cover a line north of forty. The ruck numbers say they should, and Richmond’s blunt attack keeps the total in play too.
Melbourne win the game at the source
Melbourne are +17 hit-outs a game this season, the most lopsided number in this matchup, and first hands on the ball becomes first use becomes entries. There the Dees are +10 inside 50s a game too. Richmond had no answer for any of it when these sides met earlier this season and lost by 54. When one team gets ten more entries a game, the margin question starts answering itself.
Five goals a game is the real gap
Melbourne kick five more goals a game than Richmond this season, week in, week out. Put that next to the ball they win and 41.5 stops looking brave. I make it 42, which is a nervous half point of cover, but when the miss and the make are priced the same at $1.90, I want the side with every structural edge.
The Tigers’ fight, and the under
Richmond pushed Carlton to two points last week, so the effort has not gone anywhere even if the wins have. That is their case for keeping this respectable, and it is half the case for the under too. Their attack is blunt, under ten goals a game this season, so even a Melbourne blowout can leave the total short of 172.5. You do not need a wet deck for this one, just Richmond kicking the way they have all year.
Melbourne vs Richmond Tip
Melbourne to beat Richmond by around seven goals, covering the 41.5 line at $1.90, with the total staying under 172.5.
Melbourne vs Richmond Key Stats
HIT-OUTS
MEL41
RIC24
Melbourne +17 a game this season, the most lopsided number in the game: they get first hands on the ball all day and everything flows from that.
GOALS
MEL14
RIC9
Five goals a game this season separate these attacks; put that next to the ball Melbourne win and the line comes into reach.
INSIDE 50S
MEL58
RIC47
Ten more entries a game this season is how margins blow out, and it is why Richmond’s forwards spend the day starved.
Melbourne vs Richmond Form Guide
Melbourne Demons
WLWWL
- W 125-90 vs Hawthorn
- L 62-79 vs Adelaide Crows
- W 95-50 vs Essendon
- W 83-75 vs Collingwood
- L 70-119 vs GWS Giants
Richmond Tigers
LLLLL
- L 72-74 vs Carlton
- L 72-106 vs Collingwood
- L 48-73 vs North Melbourne
- L 80-115 vs Brisbane Lions
- L 56-170 vs Sydney Swans
Michael’s Verdict
Richmond’s last month says they will fight, and their scoring says it won’t be enough. Melbourne by seven goals is my number, just on top of the line, so take the $1.90. The multi at $3.90 is the same story at a better price.
Our Bets
H2H Melbourne Demons$1.08
LINE Melbourne Demons -41.5$1.90
TOTAL Under 172.5 points$1.90
MULTI Demons Win, Demons -41.5 & Under 172.5$3.90
Up Next in the AFL
Key Facts
| Match | Melbourne Demons vs Richmond Tigers |
| Date | Sunday, July 12 |
| Kick-off | 3:15pm AEST |
| Venue | Melbourne Cricket Ground |
| Round | AFL Round 18 |
| Status | Scheduled |
| Our Tip | Melbourne Demons Multi: H2H + Line + Under 172.5 @ $3.90 |
| Predicted Score | Melbourne Demons 105 – Richmond Tigers 63 |
Melbourne Demons vs Richmond Tigers FAQs
Who will win Melbourne vs Richmond?
I’m tipping Melbourne to win by around seven goals at the MCG. The Demons beat Richmond by 54 points earlier this season and win far more of the ball, +17 hit-outs and +10 inside 50s a game this season.
What is the best bet for Melbourne vs Richmond in Round 18?
My best bet is the Melbourne multi at $3.90: the win, the -41.5 line and under 172.5 points. Melbourne win too much of the ball for Richmond to cover the line, while the Tigers’ low scoring keeps the total down.
Where is Melbourne vs Richmond being played?
The match is at the MCG in Melbourne, kicking off at 3:15pm on Sunday 12 July 2026.
