Melbourne vs Carlton Prediction
Carlton are favourite and I’m not going to argue with…
Melbourne vs Geelong Prediction
Melbourne have been one of the best stories of the year, but they head into Friday night at the MCG with a reshuffled back six and Caleb Windsor among the outs. Geelong get Mark Blicavs back, and we reckon the bookies have landed on the wrong favourite. The value is with the Cats.
AFL Round 20 • 2026
Model Predicted Final Score
MEL
$1.84
Friday, July 24 • 7:40pm AEST
89 : 92
Melbourne Cricket Ground
GEE
$2.00
Geelong Cats by 3 points
Model Predicted Margin
Geelong Cats by 3
Current Market
Melbourne Demons -1.5
4.5 pts to Cats
Our Bets This Game
H2HGeelong Cats
$2.00
LINEGeelong Cats +1.5
$1.90
TOTALOver 176.5 points
$1.92
MULTICats Win, Cats +1.5 & Over 176.5
$7.30
Claim Tips at Unibet - Offer unibet
Odds correct at time of posting
Melbourne Have Been One Of The Stories Of The Season. But A Backline Missing Bodies Against Geelong Is The Crack We Want To Back Into.
Melbourne have earned their favouritism and we’re not knocking the run they’ve been on. We just think the market has put too much weight on that form and not enough on who is actually available on Friday night.
Melbourne’s Backline Is Down Too Many
The Demons have lost Caleb Windsor to a groin issue on top of the outs they were already carrying in defence. That is a reshuffled back six against a Geelong forward line that hurt them earlier in the year. Against a top side you usually trust the structure to hold. This week we’re not sure Melbourne’s does.
Geelong Come In Fresher Than The Line Suggests
Mark Blicavs is back in the side. The two clubs have split their meetings this season at one apiece, and the Cats team running out on Friday is closer to full strength than the one the market is pricing. At near even money, that is the play.
The Points Should Come
Both these sides move the ball and back their scoring, and there is nothing in the forecast to drag the night into the mud. Two attacking teams at the MCG rarely play out a low score. We’re happy to be on the over.
Melbourne vs Geelong Tip
Geelong to win a tight one at the MCG, with Melbourne carrying too many outs in defence to keep the Cats at bay.
Melbourne vs Geelong Key Stats
CENTRE CLEARANCES
MEL15
GEE14
This is the one that scares us. Melbourne get more of the ball out of the middle, and if they run the game from the centre the tip is cooked. It’s the risk we’re choosing to wear.
ONE PERCENTERS
MEL41
GEE44
Geelong do the dirty work, the spoils and the chase down efforts, and that’s what keeps a tight one tight. It’s a big reason we back them to hold the line late.
Melbourne vs Geelong Form Guide
Melbourne Demons
WWWLW
- R19: W 92-76 vs North Melbourne
- R18: W 111-65 vs Richmond
- R17: W 125-90 vs Hawthorn
- R15: L 62-79 vs Adelaide Crows
- R14: W 95-50 vs Essendon
Geelong Cats
WLLLW
- R19: W 102-75 vs St Kilda
- R18: L 73-86 vs GWS Giants
- R17: L 101-123 vs Brisbane Lions
- R15: L 90-99 vs Fremantle
- R14: W 105-60 vs Gold Coast Suns
Michael’s Verdict
Melbourne go in deservedly short and their contest game can take a match off you, but a reshuffled defence is a real hole against a Geelong side getting bodies back. We’ll take the Cats to win it outright at $2.00 and back the plus 1.5 if it stays tight. The risk is Melbourne owning the middle. We’re happy to wear it.
Our Bets
H2H Geelong Cats$2.00
LINE Geelong Cats +1.5$1.90
TOTAL Over 176.5 points$1.92
MULTI Cats Win, Cats +1.5 & Over 176.5$7.30
Up Next in the AFL
Key Facts
| Match | Melbourne Demons vs Geelong Cats |
| Date | Friday, July 24 |
| Kick-off | 7:40pm AEST |
| Venue | Melbourne Cricket Ground |
| Round | AFL Round 20 |
| Status | Scheduled |
| Our Tip | Geelong Multi: H2H + Line + Over 176.5 @ $7.30 |
| Predicted Score | Melbourne Demons 89 – Geelong Cats 92 |
Melbourne Demons vs Geelong Cats FAQs
Who will win Melbourne vs Geelong?
We’re tipping Geelong to win a tight one at the MCG. Melbourne go in favourites and in strong form, but a reshuffled backline is why we side with the Cats at $2.00.
What is the best bet for Melbourne vs Geelong in Round 20?
Geelong at $2.00 in the head to head is our top play. We also like the Cats on the plus 1.5 line at $1.90 and the over 176.5 points at $1.92.
Where is the Melbourne vs Geelong Round 20 match being played?
The match is at the MCG on Friday night. It is a home game for Melbourne.
Who is Melbourne Demons playing next week?
Melbourne play Gold Coast at People First Stadium on Sunday 2 August in AFL Round 21.
Who is Geelong Cats playing next week?
Geelong play Collingwood at the MCG on Thursday 30 July in AFL Round 21.
