Hawthorn vs North Melbourne Prediction

AFL Round 21 • 2026

Model Predicted Final Score

HAW

$1.11

Saturday, August 1 • 1:35pm AEST

105 : 71

University of Tasmania Stadium

NME

$6.70

Hawthorn Hawks by 34 points

Model Predicted Margin

Hawthorn Hawks by 34

Current Market

Hawthorn Hawks -40.5

6.5 pts tighter

Our Bets This Game

H2HHawthorn Hawks

$1.11

LINENorth Melbourne Kangaroos +40.5

$1.90

TOTALUnder 180.5 points

$1.86

MULTINorth Melbourne Kangaroos +40.5, Under 180.5 points & Jack Gunston 3+ Goals

$4.66

Claim Tips at Unibet – Offer bet365

Odds correct at time of posting

Hawthorn Are One Of The Form Teams Of The Competition, And North Melbourne Have Stopped Winning. This Isn’t About The Result, It’s About Whether Forty And A Half Points Is Too Many.

The whole bet lives in the margin. That is where I reckon the market has stretched too far, and it is why I’m on North to keep this tighter than the line makes out.

The 40.5 Is The Whole Game

Hawthorn at $1.11 is not a bet. The only number worth money here is the 40.5, and my read has this landing near 34. That leaves more than a goal between where I think the margin finishes and where the line sits, and that gap is the play.

Hawthorn Win It In The Middle

The reason the Hawks are such a short price is they win the contest and the territory. They get first hands at stoppages and pin the ball forward, and against a defence under this much pressure that is a big score every time. That’s why they’re short. It says nothing about the size of it.

Why The Blowout Is Live

Here’s the honest risk. Hawthorn have blown teams off the park all year, three wins by 50-plus points in their last four alone, so this is exactly the kind of matchup that can get ugly. Jack Gunston is in the kind of touch that turns a good day into a great one, and if the Hawks get rolling early, the 40.5 can be gone by three quarter time.

Why North Stay In It

But a big margin needs a green light, and North have a couple of things that keep the door shut. They take better care of the ball and cough it up less than the Hawks do, so they can slow the game and deny the easy scores that pile a margin up. Paul Curtis is kicking goals for fun, so they’ll trouble the scoreboard at the other end too. Keep it slow and keep scoring, and both the 40.5 and the under look after themselves.

Hawthorn vs North Melbourne Tip

I’ve got Hawthorn home by about 34, comfortably inside the line, so North Melbourne and the +40.5 is where the value sits.

Hawthorn vs North Melbourne Key Stats

Hawthorn vs North Melbourne Form Guide

Player Prop Predictions

Josh Weddle 20 or more disposals, $1.85. He keeps landing right on the number, 21, 20 then 19, so at $1.85 you’re getting square odds on a bloke who’s a disposal or two either side of 20 in each of his last three.

Harry Morrison 20 or more disposals, $1.45. Dropped 26 last start and he’s been building, four of his last five over 18. At $1.45 the market already knows he wins his own footy.

Finn O’Sullivan 20 or more disposals, $1.64. Back to back 23s to finish and clearly trending up. With North chasing the game behind a beaten side, he’ll see plenty of it and $1.64 for over 20 is fair.

Jack Gunston three or more goals, $1.32. Booted seven last start, so the ceiling’s obvious. Hawthorn winning by around 34 means the goals are flowing their way and $1.32 for three is the safest way to be on it.

Dylan Stephens 20 or more disposals, $1.87. Four of his last seven have cleared 20 and he was over it again last game with 21. North running second on the scoreboard means midfielders like him rack up the touches, so $1.87 is worth it.

These prop odds are Sportsbet’s, correct at time of posting. Prices move, so check before you bet and take the best one going. Late team changes can knock out any leg.

Up Next in the AFL

Today 7:40pm AEST Western Bulldogs vs Collingwood Prediction Tomorrow 7:35pm AEST Melbourne vs Carlton Prediction