Melbourne vs Carlton Prediction
Carlton are favourite and I’m not going to argue with…
Hawthorn vs Melbourne Prediction
Hawthorn host Melbourne at UTAS Stadium in Launceston on Saturday afternoon and the model has the Hawks by 20, 103 to 84. The market is shorter at 17.5. Hawthorn sit 3rd, the Demons 7th.
AFL Round 17 • 2026
Model Predicted Final Score
HAW
$1.38
Saturday, July 4 • 1:15 pm
103 : 84
University of Tasmania Stadium
MEL
$3.05
Hawthorn Hawks by 20 points
Model Predicted Margin
Hawthorn Hawks by 20
Current Market
Hawthorn Hawks -17.5
2.5 pts edge
Our Bets This Game
H2HHawthorn Hawks
$1.38
LINEHawthorn Hawks -17.5
$1.89
Claim Tips at Unibet - Offer unibet
Odds correct at time of posting
Hawthorn Are Flying at Four From Five and Backed at Home in Tassie, but Melbourne Belted Them Earlier This Year.
The model and the market line up on Hawthorn, the difference is slim. We have the Hawks by 20, the line at 17.5, a cushion of just two and a half points.
Hawthorn are travelling well. Third on the ladder at 10 and 4, four wins from five, and a momentum reading of 96.5. The recent run includes a 119 to 67 win over St Kilda and a 113 to 97 over Gold Coast. Launceston is a genuine home edge for the Hawks.
Melbourne are patchier. Seventh at 9 and 6, momentum at 88.6, and three losses in their last five. They do arrive on a 14 day break against Hawthorn’s eight, so freshness is in the Demons’ corner.
The forecast matters here. Patchy sleet and five degrees with a breeze points to a lower scoring, scrappy contest, the kind that suits the side that knows the ground.
Hawthorn vs Melbourne Tip
Back the Hawthorn Hawks in the head to head at $1.38; the model has the Hawks by 20 at their Tasmanian home off four wins from five.
Hawthorn vs Melbourne Key Stats
LADDER POSITION
HAW50
MEL50
Hawthorn sit 3rd at 10 and 4. Melbourne sit 7th at 9 and 6.
MOMENTUM
HAW96
MEL89
An eight point Hawthorn edge. The Hawks are scoring freely while the Demons have run hot and cold.
WIN PERCENTAGE (LAST 5)
HAW80%
MEL40%
Hawthorn are four from five, including a 119 to 67 win over St Kilda. Melbourne have dropped three of their last five.
Hawthorn vs Melbourne Form Guide
Hawthorn Hawks
WWLWW
- W 96-82 vs GWS Giants
- W 113-97 vs Gold Coast Suns
- L 71-77 vs Western Bulldogs
- W 119-67 vs St Kilda
- W 75-66 vs Adelaide Crows
Melbourne Demons
LWWLL
- L 62-79 vs Adelaide Crows
- W 95-50 vs Essendon
- W 83-75 vs Collingwood
- L 70-119 vs GWS Giants
- L 90-93 vs Western Bulldogs
Final Verdict
Little value at $1.38, and the line cushion is thin at two and a half points. Gun to our head we take the in form Hawks at home in the cold, but it is a lean rather than a lock.
Up Next Tips and Predictions
Key Facts
| Match | Hawthorn Hawks vs Melbourne Demons |
| Date | Saturday, July 4 |
| Kick-off | 1:15 pm AEST |
| Venue | University of Tasmania Stadium |
| Round | AFL Round 17 |
| Status | Scheduled |
| Our Tip | Hawthorn Hawks H2H @ $1.38 |
| Predicted Score | Hawthorn Hawks 103 – Melbourne Demons 84 |
Hawthorn Hawks vs Melbourne Demons FAQs
Who will win Hawthorn Hawks vs Melbourne Demons?
Our model tips the Hawthorn Hawks to win by 20 points at UTAS Stadium in Launceston, 103 to 84. Hawthorn sit 3rd at 10 and 4 and are four from five. Melbourne sit 7th at 9 and 6 but won the most recent meeting between these sides.
What is the tip for Hawthorn vs Melbourne in Round 17?
Hawthorn Hawks in the head to head at $1.38 is our recommended pick. The model has the Hawks by 20 at home in cold conditions, though the thin line and Melbourne’s earlier win make it a lean.
Where is the Hawthorn vs Melbourne Round 17 match being played?
The match is at UTAS Stadium in Launceston, kicking off at 1:15pm on Saturday 4 July 2026.
Verified result – Round 17
We tipped Hawthorn Hawks to win – incorrect. Final score: Hawthorn Hawks 90 – Melbourne Demons 125.
| Market | Our bet | Result | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| Line | Hawthorn Hawks -17.5 @ $1.89 | Loss | -1.00u |
Predicted: Hawthorn Hawks 103 – Melbourne Demons 84. Off by 54 pts on the margin. Season-to-date accuracy and ROI: AFL results page - Afl tips afl results.
