Fremantle vs Brisbane Grand Final Prediction
Brisbane by four. That is my number for the Grand…
Hawthorn vs GWS
Hawthorn host GWS at the MCG on Friday night and the model leans the Hawks by 12. The market stretches that to 20.5. The Giants arrive with the louder form line, which is exactly why this one is trickier than the short head to head price suggests.
AFL Round 16 • 2026
Model Predicted Final Score
HAW
$1.34
Friday, June 26 • 7:40 pm
95 : 83
MCG
GRE
$3.30
Hawthorn Hawks by 12 points
Model Predicted Margin
Hawthorn Hawks by 12
Current Market
Hawthorn Hawks -20.5
8.5 pts tighter
Our Bets This Game
H2HHawthorn Hawks
$1.34
LINEGreater Western Sydney Giants +20.5
$1.90
TOTALOver 173.5 points
$1.89
MULTIHawks Win, Giants +20.5 & Over 173.5
$4.81
Claim Tips at Unibet - Offer unibet
Odds correct at time of posting
The Giants Carry the Hotter Form into the MCG, but the Hawks Hold the Home Edge and the Model’s Trust to Win the Night.
The market and the model agree on the winner and split hard on the margin. The line asks Hawthorn to win by more than 20.5. The model says 12, and that gap is the whole story.
Hawthorn sit third at 9 and 4 and have been steady at home, with a 119 to 67 dismantling of St Kilda the high point of the recent run.
The catch is GWS. The Giants carry the hotter momentum into the night, fresh off a 166 to 88 demolition of Brisbane that shows the ceiling is enormous when they click.
That is the risk in laying the big line. A side that can put 160 on the board is not one you ask a home team to beat by four goals, even with the Giants on the road and a short turnaround.
Trust Hawthorn to win the night. The points say the Giants stay inside the margin.
Hawthorn vs Greater Western Sydney Giants Tip
Back the Hawthorn Hawks in the head to head at $1.34; the model has the Hawks winning by 12 at the MCG, though it stops well short of the market’s 20.5 point line.
Hawthorn vs Greater Western Sydney Giants Key Stats
LADDER POSITION
HAW50
GRE50
Hawthorn sit third at 9 and 4. GWS sit 13th at 6 and 8 despite a top end that can blow teams away.
MOMENTUM
HAW89
GRE112
GWS carry the bigger momentum reading after a 166 to 88 win over Brisbane. The Hawks have been steadier than spectacular.
WIN PERCENTAGE (LAST 5)
HAW60%
GRE40%
Hawthorn are three from five. GWS are two from five, with the wins arriving in blowouts and the losses in tight ones.
Hawthorn vs Greater Western Sydney Giants Form Guide
Hawthorn Hawks
WLWWL
- W 113-97 vs Gold Coast Suns
- L 71-77 vs Western Bulldogs
- W 119-67 vs St Kilda
- W 75-66 vs Adelaide Crows
- L 81-120 vs Melbourne
Greater Western Sydney Giants
LLWWL
- L 65-88 vs Carlton
- L 88-96 vs St Kilda
- W 119-70 vs Melbourne
- W 166-88 vs Brisbane Lions
- L 71-88 vs West Coast Eagles
Final Verdict
The genuine edge here is GWS staying inside 20.5, not the cramped head to head price. Take the Hawks to win and lean to the Giants covering the line.
Our Bets
H2H Hawthorn Hawks$1.34
LINE Greater Western Sydney Giants +20.5$1.90
TOTAL Over 173.5 points$1.89
MULTI Hawks Win, Giants +20.5 & Over 173.5$4.81
Up Next Tips and Predictions
Key Facts
| Match | Hawthorn Hawks vs Greater Western Sydney Giants |
| Date | Friday, June 26 |
| Kick-off | 7:40 pm AEST |
| Venue | Melbourne Cricket Ground |
| Round | AFL Round 16 |
| Status | Scheduled |
| Our Tip | Hawthorn Hawks H2H @ $1.34 |
| Predicted Score | Hawthorn Hawks 95 – Greater Western Sydney Giants 83 |
Hawthorn Hawks vs Greater Western Sydney Giants FAQs
Who will win Hawthorn Hawks vs Greater Western Sydney Giants?
Our model tips Hawthorn to win by 12 points at the MCG. The Hawks sit third at 9 and 4, while GWS sit 13th at 6 and 8 but arrive with the hotter recent form.
What is the tip for Hawthorn vs GWS in Round 16?
Hawthorn in the head to head at $1.34 is our recommended pick. The model has the Hawks by 12 while the market asks for 20.5, so the value leans to GWS covering the line.
Where is the Hawthorn vs GWS Round 16 match being played?
The match is at the MCG in Melbourne, kicking off at 7:40pm on Friday 26 June 2026.
Verified result – Round 16
We tipped Hawthorn Hawks to win – correct. Final score: Hawthorn Hawks 96 – Greater Western Sydney Giants 82.
| Market | Our bet | Result | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| Line | Greater Western Sydney Giants +20.5 @ $1.90 | Win | +0.90u |
Predicted: Hawthorn Hawks 95 – Greater Western Sydney Giants 83. Off by 2 pts on the margin. Season-to-date accuracy and ROI: AFL results page - Afl tips afl results.
